OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,076
12,243
82
What you refuse to acknowledge is Tesla is moving FASTER than any current auto, legacy or startup. No better example that what we saw this week from VW's Power Day presentation.

Tesla will be producing MORE batteries in ONE factory (Berlin) than VW will be producing in 6 battery factories.
Tesla will produce these cells sooner: 2023 vs 2026
Tesla will produce these cells at a lower cost.

I'm not "on my knees" for Musk. I'm simply observing what is going on. VW did a battery presentation. Tesla did a battery presentation. Watch both. Take notes. Compare. That's all I'm doing. VW seems to be trying, and I applaud their effort and vision, but they're not catching Tesla. In fact, they (along with every other OEM), will fall further behind. These aren't opinions.
It took Tesla 18 years to get to this point. VW narrow the gap quickly. Not sure why you think Tesla can expand the lead when the trend is opposite.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,649
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What you refuse to acknowledge is Tesla is moving FASTER than any current auto, legacy or startup. No better example that what we saw this week from VW's Power Day presentation.

Tesla will be producing MORE batteries in ONE factory (Berlin) than VW will be producing in 6 battery factories.
Tesla will produce these cells sooner: 2023 vs 2026
Tesla will produce these cells at a lower cost.

I'm not "on my knees" for Musk. I'm simply observing what is going on. VW did a battery presentation. Tesla did a battery presentation. Watch both. Take notes. Compare. That's all I'm doing. VW seems to be trying, and I applaud their effort and vision, but they're not catching Tesla. In fact, they (along with every other OEM), will fall further behind. These aren't opinions.
Your “moving faster” argument would have been perfectly acceptable a year or two ago. But, it is now the legacy auto companies that are moving faster relative to Tesla because they have plenty of ground to make-up. What Tesla zealots also ignore is that a Tesla automobile is not for everyone. The entire world will not be driving Teslas. There will be many EV choices and all of the technology and innovations that the Tesla crew tout on this board mean little, if anything, to average Joe that stumbles into a dealership on a Saturday afternoon looking to make the EV leap.
 
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bob-loblaw

Senior
Jan 23, 2011
2,033
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Can anyone recommend a nice quiet digital neighborhood to raise a digital family? This NFT stuff is getting just plain stupid:


I'm a big crypto guy, but the NFT space reeks of Nov 2017 BTC mania. NFT's are here to stay, but what we're currently seeing is going to crash and burn mightily. It's comical too how CNBC is running with the story, almost like they're seeting up the market to collapse, judt like they did with GME.

Amazon and Tesla are apples and oranges. Amazon was playing in a nascent space and had little online competition that could scale. Walmart didn’t even have an e-commerce website back then. And Amazon’s decision to pivot to a full-blown marketplace beyond books and the launch of AWS served as the critical catalysts. Tesla has a nice lead but is under siege.

It's apples to oranges, BUT the user data and road data Tesla has over its peers is staggering. Tesla is already the EV winner, and will be the self-driving vehicle winner due to its data

I sold my ARKK a month or so ago before the dip. Is it a good time to grab some? Thoughts and opinions?

I grabbed a ton of ARKK last Fri/Mon on the big dips and grabbed more this AM. I didnt go heavy today as I still think there's good chance of a further dip in the coming days/weeks. Either way, I'm very content at my price of $111
 
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RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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I'm a big crypto guy, but the NFT space reeks of Nov 2017 BTC mania. NFT's are here to stay, but what we're currently seeing is going to crash and burn mightily. It's comical too how CNBC is running with the story, almost like they're seeting up the market to collapse, judt like they did with GME.



It's apples to oranges, BUT the user data and road data Tesla has over its peers is staggering. Tesla is already the EV winner, and will be the self-driving vehicle winner due to its data



I grabbed a ton of ARKK last Fri/Mon on the big dips and grabbed more this AM. I didnt go heavy today as I still think there's good chance of a further dip in the coming days/weeks. Either way, I'm very content at my price of $111
Tesla “user data and road data” - so what?
Do you realize that the total number of Teslas currently on the road relative to the entire auto industry is like comparing a flea to an elephant. Just about every auto manufacturer has user/road data.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,185
19,200
113
I'm a big crypto guy, but the NFT space reeks of Nov 2017 BTC mania. NFT's are here to stay, but what we're currently seeing is going to crash and burn mightily. It's comical too how CNBC is running with the story, almost like they're seeting up the market to collapse, judt like they did with GME.



It's apples to oranges, BUT the user data and road data Tesla has over its peers is staggering. Tesla is already the EV winner, and will be the self-driving vehicle winner due to its data



I grabbed a ton of ARKK last Fri/Mon on the big dips and grabbed more this AM. I didnt go heavy today as I still think there's good chance of a further dip in the coming days/weeks. Either way, I'm very content at my price of $111
+1
I worked my ARKK price down to $122'ish over the past month.

BTC just hit $60k again.
 

patk89

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Jul 25, 2001
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VW is a tough competitor with deep pockets...no arguing that.

"UBS anticipates that VW can seriously challenge Tesla's leadership in sales volumes by 2022 “driven by a plethora of [new EV] launches.”

VW is already the top EV seller in Europe — Dan Levy, an analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote in a recent research report that in Europe VW climbed to the leading position in the all-electric car market in 2020, with a 24% market share, up from 13% in the prior year, while Tesla’s comparative share in Europe plunged from 29% in 2019 to 13% last year.

David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, an investment research firm in Nashville, says VW has at least one big advantage over Tesla – scale."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/palash...t-with-software-or-batteries/?sh=1f69975565b6
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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Bought some LMT and NOC, adding to my GD and HII in the defense sector.

Defense looks like the last of the value holdouts, looking for a run here.


Edit: I guess I shouldn't say that in regards to the last of the value holdouts. Big pharma still looks cheap.
 

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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Wrong. This is referring to data collected to train neural networks.
If anyone really cared about neural network data, at least at the present time, we would all be buying IBM’s stock and not TSLA. Not to mention that when Joe Farmer in Nebraska decides to finally buy an EV years from now he is going to stumble into a Ford dealership on a sunny afternoon and not give a crap about lithium cells, neural networks, autopilot, etc. It’s almost as if Tesla owners and shareholders don’t realize that the US goes beyond CA, NY, NJ, FL, and TX. Again, Tesla will have a firm position in the auto industry but no auto manufacturer will dominate in the new EV world.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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If anyone really cared about neural network data, at least at the present time, we would all be buying IBM’s stock and not TSLA. Not to mention that when Joe Farmer in Nebraska decides to finally buy an EV years from now he is going to stumble into a Ford dealership on a sunny afternoon and not give a crap about lithium cells, neural networks, autopilot, etc. It’s almost as if Tesla owners and shareholders don’t realize that the US goes beyond CA, NY, NJ, FL, and TX. Again, Tesla will have a firm position in the auto industry but no auto manufacturer will dominate in the new EV world.
I bought some IBM.

Super cheap already with earnings expected to grow significantly this year compared to last(though rev's look pretty stagnant).

I'm up 7% in a couple weeks.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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I think RIDE getting beat up here will become a buying oppurtunity. Yes, they def exaggerated where they were in terms of orders. But unlike some of these other EV plays(whether that be the cars or the batteries) these guys are not that far off from actually selling stuff.

And in building trucks, they are in a different market then TSLA.

I'll wait to see how much more fallout is there, but I'll probably dip a toe eventually.
 

bob-loblaw

Senior
Jan 23, 2011
2,033
852
0
I think RIDE getting beat up here will become a buying oppurtunity. Yes, they def exaggerated where they were in terms of orders. But unlike some of these other EV plays(whether that be the cars or the batteries) these guys are not that far off from actually selling stuff.

And in building trucks, they are in a different market then TSLA.

I'll wait to see how much more fallout is there, but I'll probably dip a toe eventually.
I've been eyeballing that as well. Prob going to hold off as I'm too deep into the EV space, but if it dips below $10 I might jump on the ride.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,076
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82
OMG... I don't know what to say. Compare the current battery numbers. Then compare by 2023, then 2025, then 2030. This isn't difficult.
Yup, so easy. Also easy to see that VW, GM and Ford’s stock price is all outperforming TSLA. Guess the market thinks they are closing the gap.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,185
19,200
113
Bought some LMT and NOC, adding to my GD and HII in the defense sector.

Defense looks like the last of the value holdouts, looking for a run here.


Edit: I guess I shouldn't say that in regards to the last of the value holdouts. Big pharma still looks cheap.
Big pharma super undervalued now!
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,649
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Big pharma super undervalued now!
I tend to agree. I’m actually eyeing medical device/supply as reopening play between delayed procedures and the theory that more people out and about means more hospital visits. IHI?
 

bob-loblaw

Senior
Jan 23, 2011
2,033
852
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UWMC is getting some WSB love lately. Dont know a lot about it, but its the only post(s) of substance on there Ive seen in some time
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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CNBC is obviously pretty pissed at RIDE given that the CEO not long ago said they had "serious orders" on their airwaves. Rerunning againa and again this mornings interview in which he squirmingly admits that there are no actual signed orders, going as far as saying thats not how the industry works.

Have to watch those tangled webs.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,185
19,200
113
I tend to agree. I’m actually eyeing medical device/supply as reopening play between delayed procedures and the theory that more people out and about means more hospital visits. IHI?
My main health sciences fund (PRHSX) has been soft for the past few months. Looking through the portfolio via Morningstar, it is full of undervalued companies (4 or 5 star MS stocks). Lots of room to grow!
 

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
4,805
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UWMC is getting some WSB love lately. Dont know a lot about it, but its the only post(s) of substance on there Ive seen in some time
Very topical. Their CEO played for Izzo at Michigan State. They are in a war of sorts with Rocket Mortgage who now is the named sponsor of Michigan State’s basketball team. Rocket is owned by Sparty alum Dan Gilbert. So much drama lol.

UWMC has been an oft pumped former spac by Twitter pump and dump operations. Makes sense that there is WSB chatter now.

 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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If I cared what the market thought, I wouldn't have been buying Tesla when short interest was about 30-40%.
That thought cuts both ways, as those short sellers were shorting the stock because the market had prices at a level which they thought was already too high.

So two opposite views at play there.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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I already own GD, I think a proper bookend to that would be DG. Thoughts?
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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113
Don’t you care about returns? I’m not talking about what market thinks. I’m talking about a beat down in stock returns YTD.
Given the 12 month performance, YTD is kind of whatever.

Now, to your point, saying "I don't care what the market thinks" is a lot easier to say when the stock is up 7x. I doubt he'd say that if it continues it's pull back to the point where he's in the red on the trade.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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Cramer has the CEO of Magna on now. Old timey car parts manufacturer that is transitioning to EV, including building full cars, recently teamed up with FSR.

Looks a little pricey at 38x p/e, but really good looking estimated earnings growth in the coming years.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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I think the clear EV plays, aside from TSLA, are not the up and comers, it's the legacy companies which are transitioning to EV, not only the GM's and VW's, but BWA, APTV and the above mentioned MGA.

Semiconductors is a solid EV play as well.
 
Dec 4, 2010
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Don’t you care about returns? I’m not talking about what market thinks. I’m talking about a beat down in stock returns YTD.
I'm an investor, not a gambler. I will not be selling a single share this decade. The recent dip has allowed me to add to my position, so no complaints from me.

I had/have a feeling Q1 and Q2 are going to be flat. Retooling of S and X + model 3 shut down b/c of semiconductor shortage. This is all in the Fremont factory. Shanghai is full go on the 3, but still not fully ramped up on the Y. If the new battery lines in Berlin and/or Austin experience delays, this lull could extend further. There have been some rumors of production issues with the new 4680 cells. I believe I shared this with you already.

Once Berlin and Austin are full go....look out. Both will produce 2 million vehicles/year.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,076
12,243
82
I'm an investor, not a gambler. I will not be selling a single share this decade. The recent dip has allowed me to add to my position, so no complaints from me.

I had/have a feeling Q1 and Q2 are going to be flat. Retooling of S and X + model 3 shut down b/c of semiconductor shortage. This is all in the Fremont factory. Shanghai is full go on the 3, but still not fully ramped up on the Y. If the new battery lines in Berlin and/or Austin experience delays, this lull could extend further. There have been some rumors of production issues with the new 4680 cells. I believe I shared this with you already.

Once Berlin and Austin are full go....look out. Both will produce 2 million vehicles/year.
We’ll revisit in 2030.