OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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he has been bearish on TSLA, but the news of the magnitude of his put position is new information (at least to me. I had not noticed such a position in any of his previous 13F filings).
+1
Very interesting! Early last week was the tank, but the past few days have been okay.
I can keep the thread alive by telling everyone I made my weekly purchase into the Total Stock Market
This thread jumped the shark once it became a Cramer video library. As if the “Guy, the crypto guy” videos weren’t bad enough…
No more hourly updates on crypto and blockchain companies that no one has ever heard off. No more penny stock tips. This is my kind of market.
Cramer is never right about anything.Cramer is right about RIOT!
If you know anything about BTC and RIOT, you would know that Cramer is right. Grow up.
Cryptos about equal to value of gold held for investment. Good stuff!
Agree - just do the opposite of what Cramer says and you’ll typically make money. He’s been bitching about AT&T constantly because apparently NBCU, his employer, had a deal in the works to combine struggling Peacock with HBOMax. So, he started pumping AT&T a month or two ago. Then, AT&T pivoted to Discovery in a secret back-room deal (it’s been reported that even WM president didn’t find out until it was basically done) and NBCU was left out in the cold. So now cry-baby Cramer won’t shut up about AT&T.
Oh, I believe in blockchain technology. I am not certain if these companies like RIOT, Galaxy, etc have proven themselves to be special. I even think that NFT's will play a role in the future.
Sold my T stock on 5/17 before the market opened at 32.5 before they announce dividend cut. Lucky I guess.
Doesn’t look like the market is going to rebound shortly like the past. I guess all this talk of interest rate increase might actually lower the market. After Freida and rurahrah kept pouncing that the market was going lower, I lower my exposure significantly. There are a few people that I listen to on the board. Some people give better advice than others. Better entrance point probably late June.
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I’m still in the green on my AT&T position, but honestly have no idea what to make of the situation. On the one hand, the dividend will not be cut for a year and even then will still be comparable to VZ’s 4-5%. So, in the meantime, at current levels you could pick up a 7% return until the middle of 2022. On the other hand, I believe the combined WM/Dis company could be a crown jewel in the media/content industry so receiving 70% of the shares in the new company could be a wind-fall. There are also rumors that Apple could step in and buy the whole damn thing. Long story short - I have no clue what happens from here but I’m still holding AT&T for now.
Well on 5/17 the stock actually went up to 33+ before the market opened but then I saw it started to sink but was still higher than the previous day. That’s why I sold it, it was heading south.
I don’t blame you - obviously a lot of shareholders, especially those that relied on it solely for the dividend, bailed driving the stock down to below $30. I’m gonna sit tight and may buy more if it continues to drop. Like I said, it’s my understanding the dividend won’t get cut until the deal closes at which point you receive 70% of the new company. The biggest question is what will the new company be worth. My gut tells me a lot since those assets create a content juggernaut and will have strong international appeal. But, who knows…
I'm not so sure about crown jewel for Warner/Discovery tie up....it's a solid player but Netflix/Disney, specifically Disney deserve that title IMO. Netflix has like 200M subscribers, Disney 100M and Warner maybe like 50M and Discovery quite a bit less.
Also a question imo is how much debt (golden parachute Randall took on a ton of debt for those 2 takeovers), is being pawned off on each spinoff and how much is going to be left at ATT. I think they had like 170B or so at the end of last quarter.
I've read and agree that a further consolidation in the future would be an attractive but speculative reason to have piece of Warner/Discovery. It's why some say John Malone agreed to giving up his "super voting" shares to get the deal with ATT/Warner done. So in the future a deep pocketed Apple or Amazon could come along to put some gas on the fire and get them to really compete with Disney/Netflix but again speculative. Read rumors about even Disney buying that combined entity in the future but I find that hard to believe for regulatory reasons myself.
Think there could be some support in the 26-27ish area for ATT. If the divy got cut about 45% to that area it's about 4% or so yield. Mind you still not rosy about the debt outlook of the company and wonder if in the future that could be used as a reason to whack the dividend further than what they may say right now....it's their opportunity to conserve cash and pay down debt and they're already getting hit anyway on the news.
AT&T is a crap company with a TON of debt. Their business is barely growing and now they cut their dividend in half. They may reach zombie status within a few years.
Gotta feel sorry for shareholders.
And FYI, this is not AT&T. AT&T collapsed and got bought by a no-name company who changed its name to AT&T. That management team made some truly awful deals.
I think AT&T will find support around $30 unless the market tanks. Then, we’ll see if the shareholder base shifts resulting in some positive momentum. I expect clarity on the numbers once they announce the name of the new entity. But, if you look closely at the combined assets, especially the WM movie studio and Discovery’s international presence, it becomes apparent that Netflix will have a major problem maintaining its growth.
Always great to have insight and analysis from the guy who told everyone to buy Tesla at $900…ARKK at $160…and kept saying the market is going up at a time when every indication was the opposite. Just so it’s clear - AT&T did not cut the dividend and reports are that it will “re-size” the dividend when the WM/Dis deal closes. At which point, in return AT&T shareholders get 71% of the new company. There are plenty of question marks. But, fortunately nobody takes you serious on this thread.
I'm aware I believe it was SBC or something like that. Their debt situation makes it less appealing to me but I could have said the same about GE which I did put money and mentioned in one of these threads and it's done fine and about what I said IIRC. To the low teen area and to really get escape velocity from that area needs airlines to come back then I could see high teens and good chance at even a double to the low mid 20s area over time and that it would be a slog to get there. Difference between ATT and GE is that I like Culp and think he's been making all the right moves. He was laser focused on improving cash flow, reducing debt and stringing out excess. This Stankey guy was the right hand to golden parachute Randall when he was doing all these moves and saddling debt on the company and he was touting the virtues of it so now he's done a 180. Was he being a good soldier? Maybe but it doesn't give me the "feels" with regards to his future leadership for now.
If you really like WM/Discovery tie up...maybe wait for it to be spun out and see where the dust lays at that time. I do think it could be an attractive target but like I said that's speculative.
Not angry at all - I’m still in the green on AT&T. And, I’m collecting 7% for the next year at least until I figure out what I want to do.
If you look closely at the WM/Dis assets (movie studio and library, marquee brands like GOT and Harry Potter, sports, news, international) it has the potential to be a juggernaut and could displace Netflix. But I’ll fully admit it’s all about the numbers in terms of the debt load, FCF, etc.
Collecting 7% (maybe) while losing more value than that on the stock. Hmmm.....
You probably already dumped. Which would be the right move.
I've always said I'm Joe Schmoe nobody retail guy....lot of things mentioned in this thread or others are too esoteric for me so I stay out it. Crypto has been somewhat interesting to me (only the bigger well known ones BTC/ETH) but at best a speculative play for me.
I actually look in the mirror and say hey I'm Joe Retail nobody and the fact that it has peaked interest some and I see others who have even less knowledge than me mentioning it makes me take a step back and say hmmm maybe bubbly and as if crytpos crazy performance this year wasn't enough to make you think that. If/when it pops, and maybe it is in that process currently, and the dust settles a bit then I might put a little money in as a speculative flyer but no matter what the price is I don't think I'd ever see it as more than that for myself and my knowledge base.
Nope - I’m still holding for better or worse. I have very little risk here based on my entry point. Worst case scenario I probably break even.
It was a really good run though.
Still a few once upon a time penny's I'm keeping my eye on. ABML, a soon to be recycler of lithium batteries, being one.
ZOM is another, only recently becoming a revenue producing company.
To be fair and balanced, Morningstar is holding strong on T's FMV:
AT&T Unwinds Its Media Strategy; Discovery Deal Highlights Media Value
Analyst Note | by Michael Hodel
Updated May 17, 2021
CEO John Stankey has wasted no time putting his mark on AT&T and we like the direction he’s headed. AT&T announced plans to spin off WarnerMedia and immediately merge the firm with Discovery to create a new media company. AT&T shareholders will own 71% of the new entity, which will assume $43 billion of AT&T’s debt load. The deal essentially completes the unwinding of former CEO Randall Stephenson’s strategic vision, which we’ve long considered ill-conceived, as reflected in our Poor capital allocation rating.
While we like this move, we don’t expect to change our $36 fair value estimate. Combining WarnerMedia with Discovery should enhance the value of the new firm, though not to an extent that we expect will have a huge impact on AT&T's worth overall. The transaction does highlight the value of WarnerMedia, which we suspect would be trading well in excess of the roughly $100 billion AT&T paid for it, net of divestitures, if it were a stand-alone firm today. We also wouldn't rule out the possibility that another firm makes a play for WarnerMedia--we still believe it would pair well with Comcast's NBC Universal--but we wouldn’t count on it, either. We view AT&T shares as fairly valued.
AT&T used this announcement as cover to cut its dividend substantially. The firm will target a payout of around $8 billion-$9 billion annually, down from nearly $15 billion in 2020. While this shift will likely disappoint shareholders, we think it makes sense, especially considering the market hasn’t given the firm much credit for the payout, holding the stock’s yield around 7% in recent years. The firm will set the dividend at around 40% of free cash flow, down from more than 60% in 2020, leaving substantial excess cash to reduce leverage or take advantage of opportunities, including share repurchases. That free cash flow figure also contemplates a sizable increase in network investment, notably in fiber infrastructure, which we believe is important to AT&T’s long-term health.
Yes, I tend to lean towards this analysis as the basis for not making a move yet. As opposed to Cramer’s nonsense because it’s nothing but sour grapes. I’d bet my paycheck he had the inside scoop on the proposed NBCU Peacock / AT&T discussions and thought it was going to save Peacock’s ***.
I'm not a big fan of Cramer and don't know what his motive is here but I have no issues with him lambasting golden parachute Randall. I have disdain for CEOs walking away with tens of millions of dollars (90M over his last 3 years and 2.5M/yr pension for life for Randall and then two jet Jeffy at GE) while destroying shareholder value and you see it often...these are just the latest examples. Guys like Jamie Dimon or Bob Iger were worth their weight in gold and pay them whatever I have no issues at all. If Culp completes his turnaround at GE I say the same for him. But I hate CEOs who walk away with 10s of millions having done little or nothing or worse yet destroy shareholder value. They deserve all the criticism they get...small price to pay for walking away with 10s of millions.