Two great days since the conflict began. The market loves certainty, whether the news is good or bad. Looking forward to the Fed giving the market more certainty in a few weeks with the first rate hike. Plan accordingly!
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Putin (Mr 10%) is estimated to be worth 200 billion.
He's been prepping for all kinds of sanctions
There could be something to that.
There are some experts who feel Putin was sticking his toe into the water originally to see what the international blow-back would be. Since there wasn't much - highlighted by Ukranian president pleading for the help that the blowhards (reaping millions from inside Ukraine) had him think was coming - he decided to push harder.
Russia took out the air forces first and now they go to take Kiev, and then go get Ukrainian leaders and go back through citizenry, homes etc. An ominous sign in that regard are Chechen troops being sent to Ukraine.
US Marines said the toughest fighters they faced in Fallujah were the Chechens - who cleaned the Russians up when they were fighting each other house to house. From what I got from posters in Chechnya, the troops were not particularly happy to be going to Ukraine on the fly
Last edited:
LOL - according to him only makes equivalent of $140K. Hope they find every penny that prick has stashed across the globe.
Hah - did they ever find the vanished 170 tons of gold from Libya?
The world is run by international Mandarins and crooks that have each others backs
We see the events, but there is so much going on under-the-table these days that figuring things out is like trying to guess a song from a few notes. The one thing we know for sure is that the "good guy room" isn't crowded
They lean lunatic (like the Boston Marathon bombers, Beslan school massacre and Moscow Theater massacre). If you lived in Bergen County and had a pick between 10k Chechens coming to your town or 10k Appalachians, I'm pretty sure you would take the Appalachians lol
Moscow theater
Beslan school siege
**** is getting real. Freezing Putin’s personal assets. France intercepts a Russian tanker. Ukrainians defending Kyiv. Hard to believe it’s gotten to this point - and yet 800 point rally yesterday! Simply unimaginable.
Stock market loves certainty, even if the news is bad. It's completely transparent what is going on now and how the world is responding. Stock market has a LONG track record of going up during international conflicts (after a brief drop during the uncertainty of the run up to the event). Seriously, just check out the data.
The imagination of CLs and their worst case scenarios is always worse than the reality of what happens.
NATO Ready Force set to intervene or just posturing? Lots of NATO troop expansion of late. At the western border of Ukraine. Pressure coming on Russia to depose Putin from within. Will it work? Will it pressure Russia to get out of Ukraine? It'll be a major test of his autocratic power and that of his cronies.
Terribly complex due to nuclear threat/capability of Russia. Most nuclear weapons today have a yield of 300 to 500 kilotons, which is anywhere from 20 to 30 times larger than Hiroshima's Little Boy. Scary, yes. But when push comes to shove, will Russian powerbase (minus Putin and cronies) be capable of de-escalating any such possibility of a Russian nuclear response to NATO's direct intervention in Ukraine?
I still believe that a nat gas and oil embargo is the next step vs direct NATO troop involvement. It'll make for rough times for many. But it would be an effective option vs NATO intervention. That other scenario is just too unthinkable, although it is real.
All that said, the markets should begin to retreat on Monday with some realization of imminent US Fed rate increases, rising inflation, QE, etc., forces beyond the Ukraine situation. Still, there's that 500-kiloton gorilla in the room....
Terribly complex due to nuclear threat/capability of Russia. Most nuclear weapons today have a yield of 300 to 500 kilotons, which is anywhere from 20 to 30 times larger than Hiroshima's Little Boy. Scary, yes. But when push comes to shove, will Russian powerbase (minus Putin and cronies) be capable of de-escalating any such possibility of a Russian nuclear response to NATO's direct intervention in Ukraine?
I still believe that a nat gas and oil embargo is the next step vs direct NATO troop involvement. It'll make for rough times for many. But it would be an effective option vs NATO intervention. That other scenario is just too unthinkable, although it is real.
All that said, the markets should begin to retreat on Monday with some realization of imminent US Fed rate increases, rising inflation, QE, etc., forces beyond the Ukraine situation. Still, there's that 500-kiloton gorilla in the room....
Does Putin have the independent ability to launch a nuclear attack or are there actual checks and balances within the Russian gov’t? The guy has clearly gone loco and if his Ukraine plan doesn’t work out and he feels defeated would he do something catastrophic?
If you don't own AAPL.....buy it dummy:
Love the CL post. LOL!
We have better nukes and much more modern weapons to deploy them. Russia's weapons are essentially USSR tech and poorly maintained. US strategic bombers are literally circling Russia right now just like in the cold war. NATO (which is mainly the US) can cripple and destroy Russia's military and economy with little effort. All Russian leaders know this.
Buy all dips! The world community is coming together in powerful response to Russia. The Fed already giving signs that rate hikes will be slow and modest (0.25 each). ATHs coming soon.
Agree with the certainty part even if it's bad news. Do think a tit or tat cyber war isn't priced in yet if it happened. Still think inflation, rates etc..is the biggest longer term overhang on the market.
"Under Article 87.1 of the Russian Constitution, the President is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and the Law On Defence states that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is the ultimate authority on all nuclear-related matter. Additionally, the current Russian military doctrine states that “The decision to use nuclear weapons shall be taken by the President of the Russian Federation.” To that end, the President possesses a Cheget briefcase, which allows the President to monitor strategic crises and transmit nuclear command decisions through the Kazbek command and control network, using the Kavkaz special communications system."
"In addition to the President, it is widely believed that both the Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff also possess Cheget briefcases, although ultimate launch authority rests with the President. Given the tremendous secrecy surrounding Russian nuclear launch authority, these extra briefcases pose a bit of a mystery. It is possible that the additional two briefcases might act as a form of validation or check against the President’s nuclear launch decision (this is implied in Valery E. Yarynich’s C3: Nuclear Command, Control, Cooperation, in which he states that these three individuals “together prepare the authorization for the use of nuclear weapons”); however, given that neither the Defense Minister nor the Chief of the General Staff are constitutionally or doctrinally designated as nuclear decision-makers, it seems more likely that their briefcases would function as (potentially necessary) links in the chain of command, which would be used to transmit the President’s nuclear launch order down to the relevant launch and warhead custodial units."
--From the Federation of American Scientists.
Look at past data. 7 of the past 8 rounds of raising rates resulted in equities going up (and most of the time quite a lot). If the Fed gives clarity on a slow and steady plan of increases, the market will freaking explode. So much CL silliness is already baked in.
Hard to respond to your post without being "personal" in commenting on the total inaccuracies of your knowledge of Russia's capabilities. So I'll refrain. But you go ahead and "Buy all dips!"
The US spending 10x more than Russia on our military for the past 2 decades has consequences. But feel free to continue with your CL narrative (on literally every issue that you have ever posted about in this entire thread).
ATHs may be coming…but I doubt anytime soon. However, would be great if the market stabilizes and volatility drops in 2H22. Putin is not going to reverse course and wave the white flag. But I’ve been buying/selling the swings.
You understand that the US has essentially zero trade with Russia and this conflict will have zero impact on our economy, right?
CLs and shorters will try to flight against this reality, but reality will win the day.
Totally disagree if there is increased disruption to supply chains and gas/oil prices go through the roof. Am I worried? No. I’m still buying/selling. But so many stocks are in bear territory that ATHs will take much longer than you think.this conflict will have zero impact on our economy, right?
The solution to the problem of $100 oil is $100 oil.
-- T. Boone Pickens
Think about it.
Also, when I say ATHs, I am talking about the indexes.
You do know that the USA imports roughly 9% of our oil from Russia?You understand that the US has essentially zero trade with Russia and this conflict will have zero impact on our economy, right?
CLs and shorters will try to flight against this reality, but reality will win the day.
Edited for clarity: nine percent of the total amount of oil we import. For some context, Russia produces 17 percent of all nat gas and 12 percent of the world's oil. So, disrupt that flow and the impact will be significant.
Last edited:
It is about 7% of imports (which is a ever shrinking % of total US oil consumption) and not on raw oil, just produced gasoline since we do business with companies like Lukoil. The US produces plenty of oil to supply our demand along with imports from Canada.
Definitely not an issue for the US whatsoever. However, this is the reason why Germany and Italy didn't want to kick Russia off of SWFIT. European issue, not ours. As for higher oil prices.....see above my T Boone post.
Last edited:
2021 proved this statement to be incorrect.
Not the same. The big boys rule the indexes.
I am a huge Buffett fan and have read his annual letter and owned BRKB for decades. Whether you like him or not it’s always worth a read.
Interesting analysis of the Ukraine situation:
Agreed. But if/when China invades Taiwan (military exercises in South China Sea today, and 13 warplanes circling yesterday) — Apple will get hurt by China supply chain restrictions/sanctions.
World’s crazy.
Speaking of good articles, this one was very interesting. Really set the stage for why we’re in the conflict dating back to various Coups, and what potentially set this whole thing up (from a foreign perspective):
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-deadly-gamble
Constant reports of poor Russian planning. They've been running out of fuel, and captured Russians keep saying they didn't know why they were in Ukriane. Chechens were saying the same thing
Russian forces in northeast Ukraine face growing morale and supply issues, likely due to poor planning and ad hoc command structures, as ISW previously forecasted.[5] Several reports emerged on Ukrainian social media February 25-26 of Russian forces lost and running low on fuel in northeastern Ukraine.[6] A Russian riot police reportedly conducted an unsupported attack on eastern Kyiv and suffered heavy casualties late on February 25, likely symptomatic of wider Russian coordination issues.[7] Several US and European intelligence sources reportedly assess the Kremlin has had to adjust plans and commit more capabilities than anticipated at this point in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[8]...
"Russian forces continue to refrain from using the full array of air and missile capabilities available to them. Moscow may seek to limit the informational and diplomatic effects of causing heavy Ukrainian civilian casualties, and may also seek to avoid creating rubble and other obstacles to movement into and through Ukrainian cities. Russian forces will likely increase their use of fires in coming days to overcome heavier-than-anticipated Ukrainian resistance, however.
CAPTURED RUSSIANS NOT KNOWING WHAT WAS GOING ON
Russian forces in northeast Ukraine face growing morale and supply issues, likely due to poor planning and ad hoc command structures, as ISW previously forecasted.[5] Several reports emerged on Ukrainian social media February 25-26 of Russian forces lost and running low on fuel in northeastern Ukraine.[6] A Russian riot police reportedly conducted an unsupported attack on eastern Kyiv and suffered heavy casualties late on February 25, likely symptomatic of wider Russian coordination issues.[7] Several US and European intelligence sources reportedly assess the Kremlin has had to adjust plans and commit more capabilities than anticipated at this point in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[8]...
"Russian forces continue to refrain from using the full array of air and missile capabilities available to them. Moscow may seek to limit the informational and diplomatic effects of causing heavy Ukrainian civilian casualties, and may also seek to avoid creating rubble and other obstacles to movement into and through Ukrainian cities. Russian forces will likely increase their use of fires in coming days to overcome heavier-than-anticipated Ukrainian resistance, however.
CAPTURED RUSSIANS NOT KNOWING WHAT WAS GOING ON
Last edited:
About a half-hour ago, Putin placed Russia's nuclear forces on "high alert." He's underestimated Ukraine's defensive capabilities and overestimated Russia's offensive capabilities. Now he's under pressure and in no position to negotiate. So the options are limited. Really don't see him accepting defeat and retreating. What's next?
Agree 100% re: Putin will not go quietly. Hopefully, the nuclear “high alert” BS is exactly that = BS. But this whole situation is a mess because unless Ukraine surrenders how does Putin win? I’m sure it also enrages him that countries are sending Ukraine munitions.
Bullies don't handle "shame" well. And "humility." They act out, usually in self-destructive ways.
Don’t think that’s accurate assessment. Clearly, Russia thought Ukraine wouldn’t put up a fight like Crimea. But Ukraine’s defensive capabilities is what it is. Russia is showing restraint by limiting the collateral damage. Let’s hope it stays that way.
We are on nuclear "high alert" so it is essentially meaningless.
Plan for Putin. Consolidate forces into the 2 breakaway regions. Say the plan was to annex them and degrade the UKR military enough to prevent any threats to this land. Declare that Russian loyalists are safe and mission accomplished.
Problem solved!
I don’t know. Putin, the brilliant genius, has now brought in flame throwing equipment to scare and burn out the Ukrainians. There’s no way Russia will win in the long run and the Russian people will be hurt tremendously being isolated from the rest of the world with a lower standard of living. I talked to a Russian American yesterday and they hate Putin knowing it will hurt Russian people. Putin is a genius, nothing to gain and everything to lose, except getting in the history as the worst leader after Hitler. I guess his assassins haven’t been able to find their target on Putin hit list.
Last edited:
Russia's objective was to take out Ukraine's command and control by targeting selected areas, and then declare victory and insert its own government. But this failed, or is failing. If Russia (Putin) escalated efforts with more destructive forces, Ukrainians would only strengthen their resolve and never accept any new government. That would lead to an extended war. Now, he's stuck. Cornered. And that's dangerous, given his psych profile.
Nuclear high alert is a clear response to the SWIFT ban. It’s not meaningless for the military. All NATO countries have to respond because of it.We are on nuclear "high alert" so it is essentially meaningless.
Plan for Putin. Consolidate forces into the 2 breakaway regions. Say the plan was to annex them and degrade the UKR military enough to prevent any threats to this land. Declare that Russian loyalists are safe and mission accomplished.
Problem solved!