OT: Stock and Investment Thread

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,304
19,286
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Don't lose sight of impending Fed rate hikes. Looking at 1% cumulative rate increase by June: .50+.25+.25 ??? Inflation here to stay for a good while. Economy to slow thru 1Q23. Fed to further raise rates at least another 1% in the interim. "Stagflation."
It will be all quarter point moves. Going from zero to 1% is meaningless for stocks. Economy is strong, inflation to tick down soon.
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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Come on! It’s the crown jewel of Chamath’s portfolio….

Well looking at those returns it looks like things did get F'd up lol.

I'll stick with the other billionaire (Buffett) who recently said something along the lines of it's hard to find attractive values for investments and low rates have made things pricey across asset classes. It's the same reason I said I didn't participate much in this thread until recently when things started coming down.....lots of names I have no interest in and lots of inflated valuations. Prefer to hear to good honest assessments vs a snake oil salesman.
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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$SoFi earnings after the bell tomorrow. Anyone going to roll the dice?
TGT earnings coming up too. I've mentioned the double top a couple times and on Friday I did think it came near a potential at least short term bottom area where it bounced off. I'm probably going to be too chicken to get into it but wonder if it might not have a quick relief rally if earnings are good. Overall market sentiment tomorrow will matter too though. LOW earnings were very good but the reaction evaporated rather quickly as well.
 

ashokan

Heisman
May 3, 2011
25,325
19,688
0
The way Russia is organized at a Corps or Army level is why they have so many problems. Russia reorg’d their army into Battalion Tactical Groups a number of years ago which are highly effective in low intensity conflict but are very vulnerable in large scale, high intensity operations.

The reason many people, myself included, didn’t think there would be a full invasion is because literally every single thing that has happened since zero hour has happened exactly as expected. Russia isn’t capable of effectively fighting this conflict and never was, and this will likely bring about the end of Russia as a semi-superpower. What becomes of their nuclear status is an unknown. Why Putin would voluntary sacrifice his entire country, a move that is tremendously out of character for him, is really beyond me. I understand his/their concern Ukraine’s nuclear ambitions, but they chose the worst possible way to rectify it.

Yes you say what experts where saying
Andrei Illarionov - a Russia expert who was a Putin advisor years ago said that Russia has about 145k soldiers and Ukraine has around a 250k.
He said Russia would need 1-1.5 million to take and keep Ukraine
I never expected a major war over Ukraine
Biden said a small incursion wouldn't be a big deal
I think Putin was relying on the Chechens to sweep into Kiev and kill/depose leaders
But they got crushed by Turkish made drones.
The count of casualties now is given as over 500 killed, 56 tanks wrecked and Chechen general was killed
Russia and China made a new alliance just before Olympics so I think they have a game plan that Ukraine was a part of some calculation.
Now Putin is "hoist with his own petard" as they say
He has "tactical nukes" which are meant to be sort of battlefield shock and awe weapons meant to freeze foes who might gain an upper hand (thats been the explanation anyway)
Putin isn't necessarily talking about "Tsar Bomba" when he talks about nukes
In any case everything is a mess
Putin was not considered a great KGB operative
He was a like a D3 position coach of KGB
He's clever like a street hustler but no genius.
Now the boys and girls of the EU want to wage financial war against Russia and citizens, while still buying oil from the boss.
Putin starts a gas leak and the globalist greenies run in lighting matches
Here we go....


 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,686
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GD, RTX, NOC up 4.5-5% in the premarket adding to Friday's gains.
I own NOC in addition to LMT and HII. Doing well there.

Also own MAXR, sattelite company that is providing much of the imagery we are seeing from Ukraine. That's ripping the past week, though I'm just barely in the green overall

Also own Tell, and that has been up 10%+ 3 times in the last week.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,304
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RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
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Seeing that 40-mile long Russian column advancing westward, I can't help but think of how NATO is missing an opportunity to take it out via air strikes and eliminate what's going to be a major escalation and perhaps the turning point for Putin. Hit...that...column....
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,106
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Seeing that three-mile long Russian column advancing westward, I can't help but think of how NATO is missing an opportunity to take it out via air strikes and eliminate what's going to be a major escalation and perhaps the turning point for Putin. Hit...that...column....
Start WW III
 

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
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RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
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You know, he wants the west to hit that column to crash the market (and prove his bear predictions right).
:)
This is a stock/investment thread, yes, but try for a perspective that not everything is about "the market," per se. Your portfolio should be managed/optimized for all scenarios. This is about a tyrant-dictator with ambitions beyond UKR, although the immediate offense is his invasion of a sovereign nation with a democratically elected president. NATO will have to step in soon. As for this escalating into WWIII? Unless Putin is stopped here, he'll move on the Baltics next. That's more likely to cause a much wider war. Stop him here and now, and that greater threat is extinguished.
 

Njbound1

Junior
Jan 29, 2020
293
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Of course, but there are Russia supporters on this board trying to create disinformation.

Somewhat of a ridiculous statement, as I’ve not seen one poster even remotely supportive of Russia. The world has been inspired by Ukraine’s courage.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,304
19,286
113
This is a stock/investment thread, yes, but try for a perspective that not everything is about "the market," per se. Your portfolio should be managed/optimized for all scenarios. This is about a tyrant-dictator with ambitions beyond UKR, although the immediate offense is his invasion of a sovereign nation with a democratically elected president. NATO will have to step in soon. As for this escalating into WWIII? Unless Putin is stopped here, he'll move on the Baltics next. That's more likely to cause a much wider war. Stop him here and now, and that greater threat is extinguished.
Without being rude, may I say.....are you crazy? The Baltics are NATO nations. The US, Germany, UK, et al would attack and Russia would cease to exist within days (at least the Putin regime). Come on, please return to the world of reality.

This isn't the USSR of the 60s. The Russian military today is a patch on the fanny of the US and NATO. And FYI, their entire economy is collapsing right before our eyes.
 

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
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Without being rude, may I say.....are you crazy? The Baltics are NATO nations. The US, Germany, UK, et al would attack and Russia would cease to exist within days (at least the Putin regime). Come on, please return to the world of reality.

This isn't the USSR of the 60s. The Russian military today is a patch on the fanny of the US and NATO. And FYI, their entire economy is collapsing right before our eyes.
Do a little reading.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,304
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Buy, buy, buy! The man has spoken. Really good interview. More dove'ish Fed. Growth to thrive as rates increase (up to 2-2.5%).

 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,304
19,286
113
Well, that you seem to have personalized this is telling. Stay in your safe place, and "Buy! Buy! Buy!" Good luck.
Very telling indeed. Hard to speak with someone so scared that they can't process what is happening right in front of our faces and for the whole world to see.
 

RUDead

All-Conference
Sep 20, 2017
3,655
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RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,692
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113
Buy, buy, buy! The man has spoken. Really good interview. More dove'ish Fed. Growth to thrive as rates increase (up to 2-2.5%).


Re: the re-opening trade, What’s shocking is how the COVID hysteria/narrative seems to have disappeared overnight. If true, I need buy more ABNB and get back into MAR. Is COVID basically sidelined until next Winter?
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,304
19,286
113
Is COVID basically sidelined until next Winter?
That seems like the endgame, which hopefully is what is happening today. No more new variants! As long as mutations stay within the omicron family, we should be okay.
 

RUBlackout

All-American
Mar 11, 2008
10,776
6,726
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Re: the re-opening trade, What’s shocking is how the COVID hysteria/narrative seems to have disappeared overnight. If true, I need buy more ABNB and get back into MAR. Is COVID basically sidelined until next Winter?
Seems to be that way!! I was thinking of the same trades actually
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,686
9,175
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Re: the re-opening trade, What’s shocking is how the COVID hysteria/narrative seems to have disappeared overnight. If true, I need buy more ABNB and get back into MAR. Is COVID basically sidelined until next Winter?
The omicron wave had already mostly abated, states were already lifting the last of the mandates. Covid was still in the news but we are way past the hysteria stage of the virus.

But yeah, Ukraine has completely taken over the news and rightfully so. Even the new Supreme Court nominee, which itself is a good story, but sorry but that story is going to have to wait.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,686
9,175
113
Without being rude, may I say.....are you crazy? The Baltics are NATO nations. The US, Germany, UK, et al would attack and Russia would cease to exist within days (at least the Putin regime). Come on, please return to the world of reality.

This isn't the USSR of the 60s. The Russian military today is a patch on the fanny of the US and NATO. And FYI, their entire economy is collapsing right before our eyes.
Not to mention Russia has struggled mightily in Ukraine. If they can somehow "win" in Ukraine they will be in no position to move on to other countries. They can barely keep supply lines going now. This campaign has exposed Russia as nowhere near the military power that they once were.

The idea that Poland or some other Nato country is next is laughable at this point.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,304
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Not to mention Russia has struggled mightily in Ukraine. If they can somehow "win" in Ukraine they will be in no position to move on to other countries. They can barely keep supply lines going now. This campaign has exposed Russia as nowhere near the military power that they once were.

The idea that Poland or some other Nato country is next is laughable at this point.
Hits the nail on the head!

Back to the markets, so many buy back programs, hard to keep track of: