Some of the them are just following their mandate, but yeah its a **** show. The private funds like BREIT are just as bad but not marking down their portfolios while at the same time not meeting their redemptions. The few that did get out of those got out at a great price. Leaving the ones stuck in it holding the bag.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Some of the them are just following their mandate, but yeah its a **** show. The private funds like BREIT are just as bad but not marking down their portfolios while at the same time not meeting their redemptions. The few that did get out of those got out at a great price. Leaving the ones stuck in it holding the bag.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Me and my two partners own and manage 1109 apartments between Dallas and Houston. Roughly about $195mm. Which in the grand scheme of things makes us a smaller player. But across our portfolio (all multi-family) were at about 96% occupancy, 8% yoy rent growth (coming down month by month) and operationally doing very well. Where were getting WHACKED though is with property taxes and insurance. Insurance has gotten insane.
Rolf. No. You crush inflation by having FF rate 100-200bps OVER inflation rate.
We ain’t there yet.
Because claims are insane because inflation is insane. Which may eventually put pressure on your rents.
And round it goes.
You either CRUSH inflation or you don’t.
claims are insane because of plaintiff attorney's planting billboards every 100 yards and declaring they can get multi-million dollar verdicts for broken ankles. "social inflation"
Not sure where you are getting your info from. Office was not dying pre-COVID. NYC was trading 4.5% cap rate and avg occupancy was 92%.
See my post #23,703 in this thread. It’s an issue but not fatal.
You do realize that at some point you have to stop taking the one up while the other continues to go down?
What you're suggesting is taking this up to what 6.5 to 7 while by then inflation might be down under 5 or better?
| Feb '23 | 6% |
| Jan '23 | 6.4% |
| Dec '22 | 6.5% |
| Nov '22 | 7.1% |
| Oct '22 | 7.7% |
| Sep '22 | 8.2% |
| Aug '22 | 8.3% |
| Jul '22 | 8.5% |
| Jun '22 | 9.1% |
| May '22 | 8.6% |
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Right, it shouldnt have been. Anyone with half a brain knew office was dying a slow death. Covid just sped it up
LOL! Give it up. Inflation is over. As per my previous posts, where is this mystical inflation? Home prices? No. Oil/energy? No. OER? No. Commodities? No.
Even the garbage gov'ment metrics that lag reality by 9-12 months are cracking. Why do you think the morons at the Fed missed inflation when it was raging in 2021? CPI said it was fine. They never learn.
And FYI - Fed dot plot says only one more 0.25% left.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
It surprised you that office real estate was whacked? It was one of the more predictable trends over the past decade or so
Totally disagree. Office was hot before COVID. Companies were going to hoteling model because space was expensive and hard to find. Giant tech companies were buying buy office buildings. if you saw it coming, you should’ve bought puts on office REITs. Btw, class A office is still hot in NYC. Rents are over $150 PSF. It’s the class B and C stuff that’s in trouble.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I dont dabble in the stock market. But i honestly dont know a single person who was bullish on office or retail even pre covid. Granted most people I know prefer multifamily and thats a superior asset class
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Agreed. MF is traditionally boring and steady. Past few years were an anomaly where you were able to achieve returns like this
I dont think we ever see these type of returns come back.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Well to re-phrase, just as I didn’t bank on those type of returns on that deal, I’m not gonna bank on those type of returns on any deals going forward either
Inflation will definitely be over at some point. It seems very likely that it will end due to a recession and not a soft landing. Regardless of what you and I believe where inflation has been in the past year, only the fed's view on inflation counts. As far as the fed is concerned, there is still inflation.
wow... we went from 9 to 6....
golly...
you understand that is not 2, right?
it's 300% over 2.....
and the next 4% is (orders of magnitude) harder than the first 3%.
yes, at least 6%... especially with mommy Yellen saving every Billionaire who has a boo-boo...
I get it.. everyone wants to hate the Fed.... but, the wishcasting is almost comical...
Not quite what you're thinking herecash baby!!!
pump it!!!
Besides the long term problems, the issue today seems to be fallout from the AT1 issue in the Credit Suisse failure. Cost of capital for EU banks has increased as a result.
They spent the last week blaming their problems on the failure of US regional banks. Obviously that was BS. European markets are always a little slow to wake up.
The Fed is slowly learning about gov'ment data vs real-time data. This is why their dot plot says only one more meaningless 0.25% hike.
Actually SoCal the humor here is that what you wrote above is not even in the same universe to what I suggested. You said the fed needed to have the rate 1-2points > inflation rate in support of higher rates. I said it doesn't because it is already at 5 and the way inflation is going it will be there soon enough. Taking it to 6 when it is already at 6? You said it yourself.
Now to your comments above. My opinion is that we don't need to kill/restrict the whole damn economy to get to some magic 2%. Folks have lost 20-25% of their retirement accounts.. you know people like me now living off those funds? 4% inflation right now is livable with a market that would start jumping double digits.
If you graduated in 84..then you remember the 70s...
and if you think 3% inflation "is fine"... I don't know what to tell you..... good luck.
3% inflation is just as fine as 2%. Even Powell admitted to Congress that there is no economic reason for the 2% target. It's completely arbitrary. The real target should be based on real inflation, but that is very hard to measure and track.
again, that's not what I said. I said "right now" while the market "would be" is jumping. In other words having my retirement cash grow say 12-15% would more than offset a 4% inflation rate. Yes. I didn't say on-going . and you are comparing 3% to the 12-14 % variable rate mortgages ? (mine was a 3 year adjustable @11% before it peaked)
One problem is that the interest rate should have been raised several years ago and your assets wouldn’t have been 20-25% higher. The rate of return would have been much lower in the past. Everybody is happy when returns are high but don’t expect it to continue forever. Some even say there might be hardly any return in the next couple of years.
I agree 3% would be fine.
Well, you guys should be happy - clearly the market is pricing in rate cuts as early as June......
some of us disagree...
some of us disagree...