OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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In other news, JOLTS us getting back to the pre-pandemic norms:
April JOLTS (job openings) was released today. And this was a sizable downside miss at 8.0 million vs 8.3 million consensus. This is one of the largest downside readings ever at -2.8 std deviations. This certainly shows a sharp deceleration of job openings. In fact, the ratio of 1.24 openings/worker is now pre-pandemic. A sign of a strong labor market but not “red hot” and this is what the Fed would like to see.
April JOLTS (job openings) was released today. And this was a sizable downside miss at 8.0 million vs 8.3 million consensus. This is one of the largest downside readings ever at -2.8 std deviations. This certainly shows a sharp deceleration of job openings. In fact, the ratio of 1.24 openings/worker is now pre-pandemic. A sign of a strong labor market but not “red hot” and this is what the Fed would like to see.
As per Josh Brown and Stephanie Link, CRWD is the best in class.
People are stupid and then they complain cost of living is too expensive when they try to retire.
An anecdotal sign of the economy…2-3 times a year Lowe’s offers a 0% apr deal if it’s paid in full before the term expires, usually up to 24 months. I use this offer every few years to upgrade appliances or other big ticket purchases.
I just got their latest offer- 36 months at 5.99 apr. I guess that’s considered a good deal now.
I just got their latest offer- 36 months at 5.99 apr. I guess that’s considered a good deal now.
When was the last time they did a 0% deal? I imagine it was a couple year ago.
12/2022 looks like the last one. It was only a 6 month offer then.
I guess it can be interpreted in a couple ways.
1)They can't offer zero% given where rates and inflation are.
2)They don't need to. (nor do they need to offer 2% or 3%).
And the most expensive. 25 x price to revs, vs 12x for PANW. FTNT is 8x. My boy S is a little under 8. (S has the best rev growth of the group, but the least profitable).
They just talked about CRWD on the halftime. Apparently they increased their workforce by 15%, so while so many companies are doing the efficiency thing, they are looking to get bigger. 33% rev growth yoy.
The argument is clearly, expensive for a reason.
I am not certain if HPE is a long term investment. if it stalls around $20, I will likely sell next week. Despite the big jump today, the call options for $22 were less expensive. Not confident of this breaking $20, but I will wait until the end of this week.
Got it. Didn't have time today, so I will likely assess HPE on Friday or over the weekend. My biotech is on a roll with our first upcoming PDUFA/approval and next filing in a few months. Busy times.
Any overall thoughts on NVDA? I rode this one up to crazy new highs. Maybe I should start moving back to equal weight?
Certainly concerning, but real wages are down over the last 4 years making it tough for people to cover living expenses. Throw in higher borrowing costs and a good % of non-boomers are struggling.
Why are housing/rents going up and travel/leisure spending up? Am I missing it because where we live?
The restaurant "industry" could very well be the canary in the coal mine. Consumers will continue to pullback. I suspect we'll see more than a few failures in the coming months.
The Red Lobsters of the world?
The Compound talked about this recently. The thought being that the low end consume is being the most squeezed by inflation, and thus the low end restaurants will be the most hit.
They also mentioned Red Lobster is owned by some Asian shrimping company, and that company would dump their excess shrimp on the restaurant, thus all you can eat shrimp.
The likes of Chili's or Cracker Barrel, may also be in danger.
What do you suppose you are missing? That people are struggling?
I kind of feel I don't see it that much either. Are prices up? Obviously. Do people complain about it? Even more obvious. I bought some Veg Lo Mein recently(ordered 2, but lost in translation so I bought 3) and it was $17 each, I was like WTF, it's spaghetti in a box. But everyone has job's, everyone is making more then they did 4 years ago, houses sell in a millisecond, the stores are jammed.
But if I rented, had a bunch of kids, and a low(ish) paying job somewhere, I could definitely see that being a problem.
That shrimping company enticed red lobster to run the never ending shrimp promo so they could increase sales while taking a loss on the already written off equity position. Shady stuff going on that never should have been so not exactly a repeated model for others..... hopefully.
The downfall of Red Lobster seems to be due to supply chain improvements. As in, you can get decent seafood anywhere in the country now, so why spend money on crappy seafood at a chain restaurant?
Ya I don't see the fall of Red Lobster as a much of an indicator.
Crappy food in a highly competitive industry with crappy margins. Just surprised it lasted so long!
Endless Shrimp!!!Crappy food in a highly competitive industry with crappy margins. Just surprised it lasted so long!
Might as well just eat that while sitting on the toilet. Save time!
I disagree it’s the canary. Restaurant business is low margin with ton of closings. Good restaurants are still difficult to get into. That’s just business as usual.
UBER broke through $60ish to ATH's to start this year, ran to $80, cooled off, got into the low $60's, bounced off those old ATH's. Is it now ready for the next leg?
Does Elon moving those GPU's to X as opposed to Tesla take some of that robotaxi concern off of Uber?
Need's to reclaim profitability(swung back negative this past qtr), but only 3.5x rev's.
Does Elon moving those GPU's to X as opposed to Tesla take some of that robotaxi concern off of Uber?
Need's to reclaim profitability(swung back negative this past qtr), but only 3.5x rev's.