OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,338
9,001
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And... the Butler PA incident: how will the market process it, come Monday?
In my short history following the market I've been very surprised at how little effect some of these disruptive social events have had on the market.

The JFK assassination saw the market plunge initially, the market shut down, and then rebounding big upon reopening.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
29,935
17,899
113
The market seemed ripe for a 5%-10% pullback before the assassination attempt. This event could "trigger" a sell off. And buying opportunities. ???
You won't get a significant pullback with outstanding earnings being reported for the next few weeks. Not good timing for bears.
 

Knight Owl

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
3,536
2,580
0
Markets will be up. The incident makes it more likely Trump will be elected.
Growth will continue to be exceptional under Biden especially as rates come down. Growth rate is currently similar to what the former guy could manage under ZIRP….free money.
Silly comment.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
29,935
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Growth will continue to be exceptional under Biden especially as rates come down. Growth rate is currently similar to what the former guy could manage under ZIRP….free money.
Silly comment.
True, but the market wants the Trump tax cuts extended beyond 2025 including the business tax of 21%. Also, the SEC and FTC would be much more business friendly under Trump 2.0.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,338
9,001
113
I bought bunch of your ZETA today. It better not let me down. I don't want to lose faith in you.
I see MS with a note in late June saying this:

"Management sounded increasingly confident in the durability of 20%+ growth, supported by the agency ramp, emerging product cycles, and a stable demand environment. At 0.18x EV/S/G, valuation underestimates consistent execution and durable growth. Remain OW."

5x rev's.
about 25x 2024 fcf.

I'm still pretty small in the position.

I might be ready to give SNOW the boot. That chart is terrible. It's still expensive. Growth is in question.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
29,935
17,899
113
I see MS with a note in late June saying this:

"Management sounded increasingly confident in the durability of 20%+ growth, supported by the agency ramp, emerging product cycles, and a stable demand environment. At 0.18x EV/S/G, valuation underestimates consistent execution and durable growth. Remain OW."

5x rev's.
about 25x 2024 fcf.

I'm still pretty small in the position.

I might be ready to give SNOW the boot. That chart is terrible. It's still expensive. Growth is in question.
I'm sticking with SNOW to see how the new CEO does. Last round of earnings was solid. About even with the position. Bought at $146 and again around $126 (IIRC). It is likely an AI winner in the long run. I use SNOW at work (indirectly via an advance analytics vendor).

But overall, I like ZETA better (services and stock).
 

Knight Owl

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
3,536
2,580
0
True, but the market wants the Trump tax cuts extended beyond 2025 including the business tax of 21%. Also, the SEC and FTC would be much more business friendly under Trump 2.0.
If corporate rates go to 25% it would be a yawn and no big deal (I personally wish they would leave the corporate rate alone but over a ten year window the additional revenue would be material but certainly not anything close to a budget balancer). They should reset the top personal rate and see how much revenue is added through better IRS enforcement (anecdotes are already showing solid benefits to enhanced enforcement).
Nominal GDP growth rates in a 2.5% Fed funds rate world would be fairly sustainable over the foreseeable future and would be in the 5-5.5% range.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,338
9,001
113
I've owned PHYS since the beginning of the year in our managed Roth IRAs, up 17.5% already. I bet gold is heading to $3,000. There are a lot countries buying gold hand over fist. We also hold uranium and platinum/palladium plays.
"Best 20 year chart out there"

Says Tim Seymour.
 
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mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
25,821
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If corporate rates go to 25% it would be a yawn and no big deal (I personally wish they would leave the corporate rate alone but over a ten year window the additional revenue would be material but certainly not anything close to a budget balancer). They should reset the top personal rate and see how much revenue is added through better IRS enforcement (anecdotes are already showing solid benefits to enhanced enforcement).
Nominal GDP growth rates in a 2.5% Fed funds rate world would be fairly sustainable over the foreseeable future and would be in the 5-5.5% range.

Expiration of the 2017 tax legislation would raise the top corporate rate to 35%. I agree 25% would be no big deal but that's what many are proposing. It's also the highest rate in among developed countries, 6-10% above the European social welfare countries. This would also result in Europe regaining their advantage from territorial taxation that kept billions of American multinationals retained earnings sitting offshore as in the past.
 

Knight Owl

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
3,536
2,580
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Expiration of the 2017 tax legislation would raise the top corporate rate to 35%. I agree 25% would be no big deal but that's what many are proposing. It's also the highest rate in among developed countries, 6-10% above the European social welfare countries. This would also result in Europe regaining their advantage from territorial taxation that kept billions of American multinationals retained earnings sitting offshore as in the past.
I see no evidence of a desire to return corporate rates to 35% and corporate rates don’t sunset. The bipartisan agreed upon rate was to be 28% just prior to the TCJA.

Large deficits need to be brought down and Bitcoin salesmen like The Mooch need to get a proper 9 to 5.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,338
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Tsla has pretty clearly broken that downward trend which dates back to 2021.


im still selling before earnings next week. (Then i might buy it back on the backside)
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
29,935
17,899
113
Tsla has pretty clearly broken that downward trend which dates back to 2021.


im still selling before earnings next week. (Then i might buy it back on the backside)
Speaking of earnings, UHN reports tomorrow morning. May be the beginning of the tide turning for the entire HC sector. Q2 thru the rest of the year should provide significant growth.
@rutgersdave
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
29,935
17,899
113
Little bit of resistance right here at $525, but the big level is $550.
I was thinking of an options play for earnings, but I may just buy a large position and play for a smaller move (less risk since I can just hold the stock if it dips tomorrow).
 

rutgersdave

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,908
13,993
0
Speaking of earnings, UHN reports tomorrow morning. May be the beginning of the tide turning for the entire HC sector. Q2 thru the rest of the year should provide significant growth.
@rutgersdave
I think so, UNH reached 520 again this morning but should break 530-550 if earnings are good after the close. I see the BDX, BMY and JNJ are moving slowly up.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
29,935
17,899
113
I think so, UNH reached 520 again this morning but should break 530-550 if earnings are good after the close. I see the BDX, BMY and JNJ are moving slowly up.
UNH - Triple beat (rev, earnings, and guidance). Up 3-4% prior to the open.
 
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