OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/25/amazon-sellers-hike-prices-of-goods-after-trumps-china-tariffs.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-increases-trump-tariffs-2025

I’m personally impacted by the tariffs. Was going to finally pull the trigger on that Ferrari. But it will have to wait.

The Business Insider story is paywalled. The CNBC story collapses on itself after you get by the fearmongering headline hyping small-ticket stuff like kitchen gadgets, diaper bags and costume jewelry lol:

In a statement to CNBC, an Amazon spokesperson called the claim “sensationalized” and said the research covers “a tiny fraction of items in our store.” Amazon said that, based on its view of the research, fewer than 1% “of the items studied saw an increase in price.”

“We have not seen the average selling prices of products change up or down appreciably outside of typical fluctuations across the hundreds of millions of items on Amazon,” the statement said. “And we continue to meet or beat prices versus other retailers on the vast majority of items.”

 

[T2Kplus20]

Ho-hum day. Nice to have one of those.

 

[jtung230]

bought more TPK muni at 4.5% today.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Pick your insider trading warrior: Pelosi or MTG.

 

[T2Kplus20]

bought more TPK muni at 4.5% today.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Pick your insider trading warrior: Pelosi or MTG.

I think MTG has a lot of work to do to catch up to Pelosi (who made insider trading into an art form).

 

[jtung230]

Thank you. 9.29% tax equivalent yield

 

[T2Kplus20]

Thank you. 9.29% tax equivalent yield

Got that in one day with equities a few weeks ago. Enjoy that annual 4.5%. You are too young to be so scared. LOL!

 

[jtung230]

Got that in one day with equities a few weeks ago. Enjoy that annual 4.5%. You are too young to be so scared. LOL!

We know you never lose money trading. Should really quit your day job.

 

[RU#1fan]

Anyone buying meme coin to have dinner with POTUS?

LMAO

 

[RU05]

Pick your insider trading warrior: Pelosi or MTG.

They should all be limited to buying the major indexes. This business is bunk.

But $30M is not a whole lot of money.

 

[xWVU2010x]

They should all be limited to buying the major indexes. This business is bunk.

But $30M is not a whole lot of money.

They’ll just use intermediaries, the problem is even if something was passed it would still need to be written and passed by those who benefit from it so you know there will be some back door open for how they can still do it.

 

[drewbagel423]

Weak employment and negative GDP. The recession will be televised.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Weak employment and negative GDP. The recession will be televised.

Going to need much, much more data for a recession call. This GDP print was only negative due to the import pull forward, not anything with US production.

 

[xWVU2010x]

Weak employment and negative GDP. The recession will be televised.

Will be a few slow months coming but ultimately probably end the year at ATHs if we stay the current course.

 

[Caliknight]

As predicted. China folds. Trump wins again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/new...r&cvid=63282fd586a84223873350359b6c753e&ei=11

 

[RU05]

Going to need much, much more data for a recession call. This GDP print was only negative due to the import pull forward, not anything with US production.

This was a thing in 2021 as well. I don’t really understand the mechanics but it seems more of a quirk than a sign of a slowing economy.

and in 2021 it was not considered a recession despite negative 2 qtr’s because the labor market remained so strong. So that is the thing to watch.

 

[xWVU2010x]

As predicted. China folds. Trump wins again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/new...r&cvid=63282fd586a84223873350359b6c753e&ei=11

You do understand we gain nothing if China waves a tariff right? Like the American economy didn’t just “get money”, a tax on a Chinese importer was just lowered, that’s it. Because China understands we have something (in this case, it’s Ethane) they need and probably can’t get elsewhere either at all or at a palatable price (idk the world of ethane). China will in all likelihood not be buying “more ethane” than what they previously needed prior to this. All that happened is that the flow of trade of Ethane to China was probably slowed for a few weeks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

This was a thing in 2021 as well. I don’t really understand the mechanics but it seems more of a quirk than a sign of a slowing economy.

and in 2021 it was not considered a recession despite negative 2 qtr’s because the labor market remained so strong. So that is the thing to watch.

+1
And during this same quarter, earnings have been very strong so far.

 

[jtung230]

+1
And during this same quarter, earnings have been very strong so far.

You always say the market is forward looking. Projections or guidance are not good.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

I’m so confused.

 

[RU05]

You always say the market is forward looking. Projections or guidance are not good.

There seems to be more a lack of guidance, then poor guidance.

 

[jtung230]

There seems to be more a lack of guidance, then poor guidance.

No guidance is worst than poor guidance

 

[RU05]

No guidance is worst than poor guidance

Maybe not in this instance as the market understands the reason for lack of guidance, and seems to think that reason is a short term situation.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Maybe not in this instance as the market understands the reason for lack of guidance, and seems to think that reason is a short term situation.

+1
The market has been okay with lack of guidance. Some companies might as well take advantage of the flexibility.

 

[RU05]

Trimmed RIVN.

 

[RU05]

MSFT popping early off of earnings. up 6%.

Prob not surprising QCOM down 4%. That stock sucks.

 

[RU05]

META popping too.

 

[Postman_1]

 

[ScarletNut]

You do understand we gain nothing if China waves a tariff right? Like the American economy didn’t just “get money”, a tax on a Chinese importer was just lowered, that’s it. Because China understands we have something (in this case, it’s Ethane) they need and probably can’t get elsewhere either at all or at a palatable price (idk the world of ethane). China will in all likelihood not be buying “more ethane” than what they previously needed prior to this. All that happened is that the flow of trade of Ethane to China was probably slowed for a few weeks.

Cue the obligatory Caliknight laugh emoji.

 

[T2Kplus20]

META popping too.

MSFT + META = BOOM!

AMZN also up 3% in extended:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/amazon-to-spend-4-billion-on-small-town-delivery-expansion.html

Revenge of the Mag 7!

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lost in the GDP news. PCE continues to dump:

March 2025
PCE Headline YoY = 2.3%
PCE Core YoY = 2.6%

 

[RU05]

3.4B active daily users for Meta.

That's like half the world right?

 

[RU05]

MSFT + META = BOOM!

AMZN also up 3% in extended:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/amazon-to-spend-4-billion-on-small-town-delivery-expansion.html

Revenge of the Mag 7!

NVDA up as well as Meta ups their cap ex.

 

[RU05]

Lost in the GDP news. PCE continues to dump:

March 2025
PCE Headline YoY = 2.3%
PCE Core YoY = 2.6%

Some of this though is recession fears no?

 

[Postman_1]

Hopfully we see a better May!

 

[T2Kplus20]

Some of this though is recession fears no?

Also means that Too Late Powell and cut, cut, cut.

 

[T2Kplus20]

NVDA up as well as Meta ups their cap ex.

GOOGL capex was also very bullish for NVDA.

 

[Knight Owl]

MSFT defies Elon Musk and actually goes HIGHER than $420/share. Analyst price targets are mostly higher yet with $500/share a real possibility (ATH for MSFT is $468) so a slow slog upward is likely ahead with a few fits and starts mixed in for fun.
Interesting personal anecdote regarding the Search business…
I was recently attempting to come up with the word “iconoclast” as I was drawing a blank and even after a couple of quick attempts using my best Googling skills on Google it didn’t give me the word so I opened my CoPilot phone app and using similar prompts it immediately gave me the word that was on the tip of my tongue.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Nice dip for GLD over the past 2 weeks. Down about 10% from the high. Starting to jump back into GLD future contracts.