OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Early highlights from WB this morning re: tariffs....
“Trade should not be a weapon,” said Buffett. He also said that “trade could be an act of war.”
“The United States won. I mean, we have become an incredibly important country, starting from nothing 250 years ago, there’s nothing that anything like it,” Buffett said.
Buffett drew applause when he added: “(America) should do what we do best and they should do what they do best.”
“Changes in macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical events, including changes in international trade policies and tariffs, may negatively affect our operating results and the values of our investments in equity securities and of our operating businesses,” Berkshire said Saturday in its quarterly note. “We are currently unable to reliably predict the nature, timing or magnitude of the potential economic consequences of any such changes or the impacts on our Consolidated Financial Statements.”
As for Berkshire's $347 billion cash hoard, WB
will eventually find places to invest its cash but not anytime soon. “It’s very unlikely to happen tomorrow,” he said. “It’s not unlikely to happen in five years.”
“Trade should not be a weapon,” said Buffett. He also said that “trade could be an act of war.”
“The United States won. I mean, we have become an incredibly important country, starting from nothing 250 years ago, there’s nothing that anything like it,” Buffett said.
Buffett drew applause when he added: “(America) should do what we do best and they should do what they do best.”
“Changes in macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical events, including changes in international trade policies and tariffs, may negatively affect our operating results and the values of our investments in equity securities and of our operating businesses,” Berkshire said Saturday in its quarterly note. “We are currently unable to reliably predict the nature, timing or magnitude of the potential economic consequences of any such changes or the impacts on our Consolidated Financial Statements.”
As for Berkshire's $347 billion cash hoard, WB
will eventually find places to invest its cash but not anytime soon. “It’s very unlikely to happen tomorrow,” he said. “It’s not unlikely to happen in five years.”
As a % of market cap, the current cash on hand is well within BRK norms. Also, lots of speculation that the cash on hand is also to help with the upcoming Abel transition (i.e., give him additional flexibility).
He also indirectly bemoaned the increase the growth of bureaucracies. Manhattan Project, conversion of a Ford auto plant from cars to bombers as exsmples.
Also pointed out the system of highways.
Also pointed out Portugal in warning about going 100% alternatives in electrical electrical power generation
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There’s a clip of Buffett saying that American capitalism is a cathedral with a casino attached and (paraphrasing) the risk that the casino becomes more attractive and thus more powerful than the casino is a very real risk.
Of course Warren is a crotchety old man who doesn’t do elaborate spreadsheets calculating the “intrinsic” values of Bitcoin or Trumpcoin so what does he know?
And so the end begins (let's see what BRK does on Monday):
Legendary investor Warren Buffett said Saturday that he plans to step down from his role leading Berkshire Hathaway. Warren, 94, serves as the conglomerate’s chairman and chief executive. He said Saturday that he will recommend to the Berkshire Hathaway board that Greg Abel become CEO at the end of 2025.
"The tapeworm won."
WB's last comment in his very guarded response to a question re: why his effort to create an alternative healthcare offering failed, in coordination with Dimon and Bezos.
WB's last comment in his very guarded response to a question re: why his effort to create an alternative healthcare offering failed, in coordination with Dimon and Bezos.
Speaking to Gemini being the best model out there, Polymarket has been a good gauge on most things. Now can they monetize it/imbed it with search? Reminds me of when they did the work on cracking the code of monetizing YouTube.
I just ran my “iconoclast” test through Gemini (for some reason I hadn’t downloaded that app yet but I have been experimenting with most of the other AI apps) and it did give a quite exhaustive list of synonyms and I just had to scroll down to the “more formal” “literary” words.
Interesting that the “Google” AI listed on Polymarket is expected to lose considerable ground to to the others by year end using the blind taste method they’re employing to settle bets.
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It’s not indicative of losing ground, the betting market narrows as the date gets closer. A 70% chance for May 31 because it’s closest. The December number will likely rise as it gets closer.
True and I like the blind taste test method although it seems to me that even that method could be “gamed” if a large group of users colluded. Google has 90%+ of the Search market share currently and there is no way IMHO that continues into the AI future with so many solid options and I agree that monetization methods will be the determining factor ultimately. If the Google machine has a 40% share of AI “Search” revenues at the end of 2026 it will be shocking to me just because everyone is practically starting from scratch. The old school blue links will certainly live on for quite some time as many searches are actually just searches for a link and I’m actually a Google snob when looking for a specific link.
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The winner isn’t decided by who has the most votes, it’s based off a third party measure, the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard.
An “independent” third party. Makes sense. I didn’t do more digging past the taste test popping up.
Sounds massively unlikely, even if they don't have the best AI.
They just have too much momentum on their side to fall apart that quickly. I'm pretty aware about the AI search revolution, but I still just google search everything because I've trusted it as the best search for forever, and it's the default search on most devices I use.
Maybe in 10 years, but not in less then 2.
Google search is great with having their Gemini/AI box on the top of the page. Very useful!
I don’t get it. It’s not currency or are they trying to make that argument again?
Do you pretend to be dumb or are you actually dumb? I go back and forth on the answer.
Im talking about the AI “Agent” stuff only which I think is what Polymarket is measuring (although it uses the Google logo and not Gemini).
It’s an intangible commodity with zero intrinsic value and it relies on the greater fool theory to make number go up.
They seem to be doing ok
As Bitcoin is becoming a little less volatile I think less price movement actually hurts its appeal. If holders don’t see the hope of a 25% runup in the nearish (year or two) term they’ll begin to bail out for good.
Whoa, Nelly. Don't make it personal, just because someone doesn't see crypto as you do or want.
Bitcoin is up 50% in a year. 231% in two years. A 25% gain by the end of the year is very likely imo.
BTC was 65K in Nov, 2021…so it’s up almost 46% in three and half years…and MSFT is up only 26% since their Nov 2021 spike…but they’re are two VERY different assets.
You said people won’t invest because it’s not volatile anymore. 65k as you note, down to 16k a year later, up to a new high of 107k a year from there. That’s not volatile enough? That’s a 5x from bottom to today.
He knows what he is doing. Trolling 101 and his MO on the topic. I stand by my post.
It was 71K March 29, 2024 so it’s up 20% since then but still below its ATH. At some point somebody is going to have to coherently explain why BTC should be valued above its current $2 trillion market cap. Michael Saylor compares it to Manhattan real estate which is absolutely insane.
What kind of measure of volatility is picking random highs and comparing to today’s price? Why not do the lows too?
Ask early etf investors how they feel about it, they’re happy and they are the biggest driver of continued investment. No explanation needed there
Saylor is going to be the most right person n human history or the most wrong. No in between.
He’ll be the rat with ALL the rat poison in his bag.
I do enjoy how “advisors” casually recommend that the uberwealthy own Bitcoin with a small percentage of their portfolio. If said investor has $20 mill then 5% in Bitcoin is a cool mill. Sell sell sell!You know the rat poison crowd once avoided investing in tech stocks before having a change in thesis.He’ll be the rat with ALL the rat poison in his bag.
There's a new BRK ETF, OMAH. It invests in the underlying stocks in VistaShares Berkshire Select Index and generating options income against the portfolio. They're looking to generate around a 10% yield with some valuation growth. I took a flier on it
I read that US oil companies are under severe economic pressure and expect layoffs and closures of US oil companies. That US drilling is down because of the current oil prices.
+1
My SLB play is turning out to be poorly timed! LOL.
In happier news, GLD is ripping again.
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