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OT: Stock and Investment Thread

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Anon1751565407

Redshirt
Jul 3, 2025
82
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Interesting that Google gets very little mention except partnering with Apple despite having a great past 3 months with Gemini 3 proving to be exceptional (I can still picture the goofy “superwoke?” and historically inaccurate images Gemini was coming up with just a couple of years ago🤣. Google’s TTM PE is now finally back over 30 though…but Waymo is much much much much much safer than Tesla robotaxi.
MSFT stock fatigue seems very real as they’ve allowed Google to get back into the top spot in the longterm AI game.
 
R

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
4,622
5,291
97
Anon1751565407 said:
Interesting that Google gets very little mention except partnering with Apple despite having a great past 3 months with Gemini 3 proving to be exceptional (I can still picture the goofy “superwoke?” and historically inaccurate images Gemini was coming up with just a couple of years ago🤣. Google’s TTM PE is now finally back over 30 though…but Waymo is much much much much much safer than Tesla robotaxi.
MSFT stock fatigue seems very real as they’ve allowed Google to get back into the top spot in the longterm AI game.
Click to expand...
Waymos are at their safest when stationary…
 
J

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
18,973
12,165
82
curious, what is everyone’s largest single stock exposure (no fund or ETFs) and what is the % to your overall stock portfolio?

for me, it’s a tie between Google and Amazon. Both are at 3.6% of the equity portfolio. Also should add that I only own 10 individual stocks and the rest in funds.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,925
18,918
113
Jtung230 said:
curious, what is everyone’s largest single stock exposure (no fund or ETFs) and what is the % to your overall stock portfolio?

for me, it’s a tie between Google and Amazon. Both are at 3.6% of the equity portfolio. Also should add that I only own 10 individual stocks and the rest in funds.
Click to expand...
Taking my retirement accounts off the table, by far my largest position is GLD future contracts via Coinbase. I currently have exposure to 50 ounces of gold, but trade in and out quite a bit. Gold has been a money tree all damn year. :)

As for actual stocks, with the modest AI pullback, my largest positions are HOOD, RDDT, and then GOOGL. I bought the first two during the tariff crash and are currently around 6% each of my personal account. GOOGL around 5%.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,605
9,132
113
Jtung230 said:
curious, what is everyone’s largest single stock exposure (no fund or ETFs) and what is the % to your overall stock portfolio?

for me, it’s a tie between Google and Amazon. Both are at 3.6% of the equity portfolio. Also should add that I only own 10 individual stocks and the rest in funds.
Click to expand...
NRG has grown into my largest position. About 7%.

META 2nd at around 4%.

After that UBER and AMZN at around 3%.

I'd like to work towards a more concentrated portfolio, but I can't stop myself from buying new names.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
14,605
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113
Silver, Gold, Copper, Uranium, looks like all the miners are popping.

MRNA, LABU, continuing to look strong.

Not much in the red.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,925
18,918
113
RU05 said:
NRG has grown into my largest position. About 7%.

META 2nd at around 4%.

After that UBER and AMZN at around 3%.

I'd like to work towards a more concentrated portfolio, but I can't stop myself from buying new names.
Click to expand...
I limit my custom basket to 30 stocks, so if one goes in, one must come out. However, I normally do hold a few others outside the basket for short-term trades.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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I seem to have bought COPJ at a bit of a top, leveraged ETF so I was down 10% quick, it is bouncing and I'm almost back to even. The 1 year chart still looks amazing.

What I didn't notice when buying though is a 12% Div. Not sure how much that fluctuates, (I could look this up, but....) maybe it's just a one time big out pay, but that is juicy, especially for an ETF with high beta and on a strong upwards trend.

Edit: ya once a year Div. The reason I was down 12% apparently. Div more then doubled yoy from $2.14 per share to $4.54. 2023 was just .45.

So the junior miners are currently raking it in. Market is either skeptical it keeps up, or slow to realize it.
 
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R

RU206

All-American
Jan 23, 2015
5,056
5,104
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Jtung230 said:
curious, what is everyone’s largest single stock exposure (no fund or ETFs) and what is the % to your overall stock portfolio?

for me, it’s a tie between Google and Amazon. Both are at 3.6% of the equity portfolio. Also should add that I only own 10 individual stocks and the rest in funds.
Click to expand...
MSFT.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,925
18,918
113
RU05 said:
I haven't. Looks like I can though.
Click to expand...
Every trade is better with leverage! What could go wrong? :)
But seriously, one huge benefit with futures is the taxes, especially for trading:

How Futures Contracts Are Taxed in the U.S.
Futures traders benefit from a more favorable tax treatment than equity traders under Section 1256 of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC). 1256 states that any futures contract traded on a U.S. exchange, foreign currency contract, dealer equities option, dealer securities futures contract, or nonequity options contract are taxed at 60% of the long-term capital gains rates and short-term capital gains tax rates at 40%—regardless of how long the trade was opened for.

Section 1256 contracts are also marked to market at the end of each year; traders can report all realized and unrealized gains and losses, and they are exempt from wash-sale rules.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,925
18,918
113
GLD to the f'ing MOON!!! New ATH.

However, gold, silver, platinum, etc. all look very extended from a TA perspective. Modest pullback coming? I put in a tight stop loss for half my GLD future contracts at $4480 (which I bet it will hit overnight). Not going all out, but will wait to add back on consolidation.

@RUinPinehurst (forgot, where you the big goldbug in this thread over the years?).
 
Postman_1

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
7,598
12,306
113
Silver hit $70, seems like yesterday it was at $35. Gold and Silver with crazy years this year. Will it slow down in 2026???
 
A

Anon1751565407

Redshirt
Jul 3, 2025
82
43
18
Postman_1 said:
Silver hit $70, seems like yesterday it was at $35. Gold and Silver with crazy years this year. Will it slow down in 2026???
Click to expand...
Silver is much more an industrial metal than a monetary metal these days. Follow the Yellowbrick Rd. by the ounce (Oz).
That said, gold at over 100X silver seemed to really ignite the silver bulls.
 
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Rutgers Chris

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Nov 29, 2005
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I know someone who is very, very rich these days
GIF by Margaux Resources Ltd.
 
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Postman_1

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
7,598
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Sold a loser today in ITB. I got it over a year ago on Tom Lee's recommendation and it did not pan out. He can't be right all the time

Picked up some VRT (Vertiv) with my sale of ITB. Every data center I've been working in they have a role in. I've been at the new Amazon one in Fairless that is huge and Vertiv is in there as well.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,925
18,918
113
From Tom Lee (as a reminder.....Don't Fight The Fed):

Equities gained again on Tuesday, as S&P 500 posted 5 consecutive gains and taking year-to-date gains to 18%. We continue to expect a positive bias into year-end and see S&P 500 reaching 7,000-7,300, so at 6,906, there remains some upside.
  • Overall incoming data today was positive, from 3Q GDP (backwards looking), positive retail sales and even incoming jobs signal from ADP. The equity and bond markets initially had a mixed reaction to the data, viewing some of this as hawkish (long rates higher). In fact, this prompted President Trump to put out a long post on truthsocial.com, titled the “Trump Rule.” It is long, so I am going to include the full verbiage on the next bullet.
  • On truthsocial.com, the “Trump rule”:
    The Financial News today was great — GDP up 4.2% as opposed to the predicted 2.5% (and this, despite the downward pressure of the recent Democrat Shutdown!) — But in the Modern Market, when you have good news, the Market stays even, or goes down, because Wall Street’s “heads” are wired differently than they used to be. In the old days, when there was good news, the Market went up. Nowadays, when there is good news, the Market goes down, because everybody thinks that Interest Rates will be immediately lifted to take care of “potential” Inflation. That means that, essentially, we can never have a Great Market again, those Markets from the time when our Nation was building up, and becoming great. Strong Markets, even phenomenal Markets, don’t cause Inflation, stupidity does! I want my new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever. I want to have a Market the likes of which we haven’t had in many decades, a Market that goes up on good news, and down on bad news, the way it should be, and the way it was. Inflation will take care of itself and, if it doesn’t, we can always raise Rates at the appropriate time — But the appropriate time is not to kill Rallies, which could lift our Nation by 10, 15, and even 20 GDP points in a year — and maybe even more than that! A Nation can never be Economically GREAT if “eggheads” are allowed to do everything within their power to destroy the upward slope. We are going to be encouraging the Good Market to get better, rather than make it impossible for it to do so. We are going to see numbers that are far more natural, and far better, than they have ever been before. We are going to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! The United States should be rewarded for SUCCESS, not brought down by it. Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!
  • To us, this is a reminder that the Fed in 2026 is dovish. This is the bigger takeaway for me, whether or not someone agrees with this policy stance. The Trump White House wants a dovish Fed.
 
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T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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@phs73rc77gsm83 - FYI, been reading/watching a bunch of things that show most Roth IRA conversions don't directly pay off (regarding tax savings). This is focused on those converting during early retirement (i.e., once the paycheck stops and income is limited). Most people pass away prior to breakeven. However, everyone agrees Roth conversions make sense to help out future heirs/your kids. As the Roth expert on the board, any thoughts?
 
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phs73rc77gsm83

All-Conference
Aug 11, 2011
3,059
3,857
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T2Kplus20 said:
@phs73rc77gsm83 - FYI, been reading/watching a bunch of things that show most Roth IRA conversions don't directly pay off (regarding tax savings). This is focused on those converting during early retirement (i.e., once the paycheck stops and income is limited). Most people pass away prior to breakeven. However, everyone agrees Roth conversions make sense to help out future heirs/your kids. As the Roth expert on the board, any thoughts?
Click to expand...
For us, we did conversions for kids/heirs, as well as avoid crazy high RMD when one of us passes away. It helps diversify asset “location.” If you’ve accumulated significant Assets and tIRA (and I think you have) it could very well make sense. Merry Christmas! There are some conversion tools you can use to run various assumptions and scenarios.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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phs73rc77gsm83 said:
For us, we did conversions for kids/heirs, as well as avoid crazy high RMD when one of us passes away. It helps diversify asset “location.” If you’ve accumulated significant Assets and tIRA (and I think you have) it could very well make sense. Merry Christmas! There are some conversion tools you can use to run various assumptions and scenarios.
Click to expand...
For our investments:
60% = tIRA or 401k (normal tax-deferred accounts)
25% = brokerage/taxable
15% = Roth IRA

So, we have some Roth money, but not a big % of our total. We still backdoor contributions every year (both of our accounts), but our current tax brackets are way too high for conversions or Roth 401ks. Our daughter is in 8th grade, so once she is out of HS (4.5 years), we can reevaluate our careers and decide what is best. We would still be young for retirement, but her K-12 tuition would be off our books and the budget will look very promising. :)
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,925
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113
NKE!!!!! Leap calls already blowing up.

And so it begins:

Apple's Cook doubles Nike stake, endorses CEO Hill's turnaround push

Dec 24 (Reuters) - Apple ( AAPL ) chief Tim Cook bought shares worth about $3 million in Nike ( NKE ), a move that nearly doubled his personal stake in the sportswear maker and signaled confidence in the turnaround strategy laid out by CEO Elliott Hill.

Shares of the company closed 4.6% higher on Wednesday after ‌a regulatory filing showed that Cook, who has been on Nike's ( NKE ) board since 2005, bought 50,000 shares at $58.97 each.

As of December 22, he held about 105,000 shares, according to the filing released on Tuesday.

It was the largest ‍open market stock purchase for a Nike ( NKE ) director or executive and possibly ⁠the largest in more ⁠than a decade, said Jonathan Komp, analyst at Baird Equity Research.

"(We see) Cook's move as a positive signal for the ‌progress under CEO Elliott Hill and Nike's ( NKE ) 'Win Now' actions," Komp said.

The purchase comes days after Nike ( NKE ) reported weaker quarterly margins and sluggish sales in China, even as CEO Hill tries to revive demand through ⁠fresh marketing plans and innovation focused on running ‍and sports, while phasing out lagging lifestyle brands.

Hill has also attempted to mend Nike's ( NKE ) ties with wholesalers such as Dicks Sporting Goods to increase visibility among shoppers amid stiff competition from ‍newer brands.

"For Tim Cook to be an inside buyer is a modest positive," said David Sowerby, portfolio manager at Ancora Advisors. The investment firm said it sold its stake in Nike ( NKE ) over a year ago due to the "lingering effect of an ineffective CEO," as well as excess inventory, weak innovation in key categories such as running and loss of market share to competitors.

However, the ‍strategy has strained Nike's ( NKE ) margins, which have been declining for over a year, while its efforts to win back its premier position in discount-friendly China appear to be faltering.

Nike's ( NKE ) shares have slumped nearly 13% since the company reported results on December 18, and are on track for the fourth straight year of declines. The stock, which is one of the worst performers on the blue-chip Dow Jones index, closed at $60 on Wednesday.

Cook has been a lead independent director of Nike ( NKE ) since 2016, when co-founder Phil Knight stepped down as its chairman.

Apple ( AAPL ) CEO "remains extremely close" with Knight, Komp said, adding that he has advised Nike ( NKE ) through key strategic decisions, including Hill's appointment last year.

Board director and former Intel CEO Robert Swan also bought about 8,700 shares for about $500,000 this week.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,516
3,187
113
T2Kplus20 said:
NKE!!!!! Leap calls already blowing up.

And so it begins:

Apple's Cook doubles Nike stake, endorses CEO Hill's turnaround push

Dec 24 (Reuters) - Apple ( AAPL ) chief Tim Cook bought shares worth about $3 million in Nike ( NKE ), a move that nearly doubled his personal stake in the sportswear maker and signaled confidence in the turnaround strategy laid out by CEO Elliott Hill.

Shares of the company closed 4.6% higher on Wednesday after ‌a regulatory filing showed that Cook, who has been on Nike's ( NKE ) board since 2005, bought 50,000 shares at $58.97 each.

As of December 22, he held about 105,000 shares, according to the filing released on Tuesday.

It was the largest ‍open market stock purchase for a Nike ( NKE ) director or executive and possibly ⁠the largest in more ⁠than a decade, said Jonathan Komp, analyst at Baird Equity Research.

"(We see) Cook's move as a positive signal for the ‌progress under CEO Elliott Hill and Nike's ( NKE ) 'Win Now' actions," Komp said.

The purchase comes days after Nike ( NKE ) reported weaker quarterly margins and sluggish sales in China, even as CEO Hill tries to revive demand through ⁠fresh marketing plans and innovation focused on running ‍and sports, while phasing out lagging lifestyle brands.

Hill has also attempted to mend Nike's ( NKE ) ties with wholesalers such as Dicks Sporting Goods to increase visibility among shoppers amid stiff competition from ‍newer brands.

"For Tim Cook to be an inside buyer is a modest positive," said David Sowerby, portfolio manager at Ancora Advisors. The investment firm said it sold its stake in Nike ( NKE ) over a year ago due to the "lingering effect of an ineffective CEO," as well as excess inventory, weak innovation in key categories such as running and loss of market share to competitors.

However, the ‍strategy has strained Nike's ( NKE ) margins, which have been declining for over a year, while its efforts to win back its premier position in discount-friendly China appear to be faltering.

Nike's ( NKE ) shares have slumped nearly 13% since the company reported results on December 18, and are on track for the fourth straight year of declines. The stock, which is one of the worst performers on the blue-chip Dow Jones index, closed at $60 on Wednesday.

Cook has been a lead independent director of Nike ( NKE ) since 2016, when co-founder Phil Knight stepped down as its chairman.

Apple ( AAPL ) CEO "remains extremely close" with Knight, Komp said, adding that he has advised Nike ( NKE ) through key strategic decisions, including Hill's appointment last year.

Board director and former Intel CEO Robert Swan also bought about 8,700 shares for about $500,000 this week.
Click to expand...
These stock purchases seem like a poor short term attempt to goose the stock. Put me on the board and I’ll make sure another basketball logo never appears on football apparel. And the only people that give a rats arse about the jumpman are Jordan fans from decades ago. Even Nike sponsored high school football teams have jumpman on their jerseys it doesn’t even make sense.
 
R

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
4,622
5,291
97
RUAldo said:
These stock purchases seem like a poor short term attempt to goose the stock. Put me on the board and I’ll make sure another basketball logo never appears on football apparel. And the only people that give a rats arse about the jumpman are Jordan fans from decades ago. Even Nike sponsored high school football teams have jumpman on their jerseys it doesn’t even make sense.
Click to expand...
Gotta r2spect their attempts to transcend basketball. It’s worked before.

Maybe it would help us with recruits…
“Brand Diversification and Market Expansion

Jordan Brand, historically tied to basketball and Michael Jordan's legacy, has aggressively moved into football since the mid-2010s to shed its "basketball-only" image and tap into larger audiences. College football is a massive U.S. market with passionate fans, high visibility, and strong merchandise sales potential. By partnering with "blue-blood" powerhouse programs (historic winners with national appeal), Jordan aligns itself with excellence and tradition, broadening its appeal to younger demographics who grew up idolizing the Jumpman but play or follow football.

Recruiting and Player Appeal

For college teams, the Jumpman logo is a huge recruiting tool. High school athletes often prioritize "swag" and brand prestige—wearing exclusive Jordan gear (cleats, uniforms, apparel) gives these schools a competitive edge. Michigan, the first football program to sign in 2016, saw an immediate recruiting boost, with prospects citing the brand as a deciding factor. Coaches from Oklahoma and Florida have noted massive positive reactions on the trail, as only a handful of programs get this exclusivity.”
 
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