OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26

[bac2therac]

Will be named Fern and buzz brewing in grocery stores and hearing conversations in gym. Overheard 3-6 and 12-14. Hype beyond belief

Whether Fern delivers no one knows. We are too far away to say that for certain. All we can say is there is potential

 

[dark_check]

Already named Fern and buzz brewing in grocery stores and hearing conversations in gym. Overheard 3-6 and 12-14. Hype beyond belief

Whether Fern delivers no one knows. We are too far away to say that for certain. All we can say is there is potential

Getting ready for cold rain and my local supermarket to be out of ingredients for French Toast.

 

[Tango Two]

Already named Fern and buzz brewing in grocery stores and hearing conversations in gym. Overheard 3-6 and 12-14. Hype beyond belief

Whether Fern delivers no one knows. We are too far away to say that for certain. All we can say is there is potential

Fern?

The National weather service doesn’t name winter storms

No, the National Weather Service (NWS) does not name winter storms, as their complex, evolving nature makes unified naming difficult;

 

[bac2therac]

Fern?

The National weather service doesn’t name winter storms

No, the National Weather Service (NWS) does not name winter storms, as their complex, evolving nature makes unified naming difficult;

The Weather Channel has been naming storms for years

 

[Tango Two]

The Weather Channel has been naming storms for years

Ok so Fern isn’t official just something to drum up ratings

 

[bac2therac]

Ok so Fern isn’t official just something to drum up ratings

Its coming

 

[Knight Shift]

Will be named Fern and buzz brewing in grocery stores and hearing conversations in gym. Overheard 3-6 and 12-14. Hype beyond belief

Whether Fern delivers no one knows. We are too far away to say that for certain. All we can say is there is potential

 

[Knight Shift]

Its coming

 

[BigEastPhil]

Mr G was hyping the storm tonight!

 

[bac2therac]

I wouldnt pay attention to amounts being thrown around yet. Models are still moving about and its still a whopping 5 days out

Models putting out anywhere from 4-15 inches. Just understand at the moment potential looks good for a major storm with timing sometime Sunday now extending into a Monday event.

In recent years we have seen models shift long range expected storms to suppression in closer range so nothing us set in stone

 

[WhiteBus]

Any snow is up in the air. Some local weather forecasters are believing that there is an equal possibility that this will be pushed further south.

What is certain is that starting Saturday is a long stretch of artic cold for our region. 20s as daytime highs well into February. That is the real weather news. I can't remember the last time we had a stretch that long. But too many are obsessed with only snow.

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

Don't we know of a Fern?

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

I'm calling a Southern Slide.

 

[Knight Shift]

Don't we know of a Fern?

It's a British name. There was a Fern engaged to Robert Plant, but she broke off the engagement because she did not want to be a Fern Plant.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Will be named Fern and buzz brewing in grocery stores and hearing conversations in gym. Overheard 3-6 and 12-14. Hype beyond belief

Whether Fern delivers no one knows. We are too far away to say that for certain. All we can say is there is potential

Fern? Sounds like a wussy name. Big hype normally means big bust potential.

 

[bac2therac]

Any snow is up in the air. Some local weather forecasters are believing that there is an equal possibility that this will be pushed further south.

What is certain is that starting Saturday is a long stretch of artic cold for our region. 20s as daytime highs well into February. That is the real weather news. I can't remember the last time we had a stretch that long. But too many are obsessed with only snow.

Yeah this weeks cold is nothing compared to whats coming Saturday and perhaps as long as 10 days stuck in the 20s for highs. We got used to alot if mild winters around here

 

[RUPete90]

Where the hell do you find this stuff?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yeah this weeks cold is nothing compared to whats coming Saturday and perhaps as long as 10 days stuck in the 20s for highs. We got used to alot if mild winters around here

We need more global warming! Mild winters are the best.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Getting ready for cold rain and my local supermarket to be out of ingredients for French Toast.

Oh. MY. GOD!!! I better stock up on the way home today!

 

[Knight Shift]

Where the hell do you find this stuff?

It's in the free GIFs on this site. I'm unhappy nobody "liked" my Fern Plant joke. I need an endorphin rush from likes since the excitement of the CFP Championship is over.

 

[bac2therac]

the 6z ai gfs was so far south it doesnt show any snow from trenton on northward so yes all options are on the table with this storm and no one should be throwing amounts around

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

the 6z ai gfs was so far south it doesnt show any snow from trenton on northward so yes all options are on the table with this storm and no one should be throwing amounts around

We know someone who will say this model is unreliable.

 

[RUPete90]

the 6z ai gfs was so far south it doesnt show any snow from trenton on northward so yes all options are on the table with this storm and no one should be throwing amounts around

"Hello suppression my old friend...you've come to make the weenies depressed again..." - Simon and Garfunkel.

 

[tico brown]

Getting ready for cold rain and my local supermarket to be out of ingredients for French Toast.

Cinnamon Raisin Bread is one cheat code for French Toast

 

[T2Kplus20]

the 6z ai gfs was so far south it doesnt show any snow from trenton on northward so yes all options are on the table with this storm and no one should be throwing amounts around

So.....

 

[bac2therac]

GFS was a complete miss suppressed to the south

canadian would be 8-16 inches and ukie 8-12

you see the possibilities, its all about whether this gets suppessed and whether its just overrunning or the initial overrruning and then a secondary low which makes it a longer duratiion storm.

 

[29PAS]

It's in the free GIFs on this site. I'm unhappy nobody "liked" my Fern Plant joke. I need an endorphin rush from likes since the excitement of the CFP Championship is over.

I was going to mention the fern bars from back in the 70's but was too late. Would that have helped? Why in the world were they ever a thing? Of course, I was living in California at the time so maybe it was just there.

 

[e5fdny]

I was going to mention the fern bars from back in the 70's but was too late. Would that have helped? Why in the world were they ever a thing? Of course, I was living in California at the time so maybe it was just there.

There was a “Cheers” episode that talked about this…among other topics.

 

[MadRU]

 

[Caliknight]

We need more global warming! Mild winters are the best.

Loving it here. Been like summer for two weeks. 75-80 every day. Unfortunately the alarmists can't even get it right. There is no such thing as global warming. Not in any way that there hasn't been for thousands of years prior.

There was a great deep dive into Al "Creator of the Internet" Gore's Inconvenient Truth. Unfortunately for him, not one of his predictions came true. Quite funny. Gotta give him credit though. He turned that hysteria into a net worth of more $300MM. Really impressive over a ruse.

 

[e5fdny]

Loving it here. Been like summer for two weeks. 75-80 every day. Unfortunately the alarmists can't even get it right. There is no such thing as global warming. Not in any way that there hasn't been for thousands of years prior.

There was a great deep dive into Al "Creator of the Internet" Gore's Inconvenient Truth. Unfortunately for him, not one of his predictions came true. Quite funny. Gotta give him credit though. He turned that hysteria into a net worth of more $300MM. Really impressive over a ruse.

Like someone we all know around here…they both read the plot of “The Music Man” and realized they could use the trouble in River City angle too.

 

[Mikemarc]

GFS was a complete miss suppressed to the south

canadian would be 8-16 inches and ukie 8-12

you see the possibilities, its all about whether this gets suppessed and whether its just overrunning or the initial overrruning and then a secondary low which makes it a longer duratiion storm.

euro on board with a major storm now too

GFS is kinda on its own - and while we certainly shouldn’t dismiss it - having ukie, Canadian and euro in agreement is very telling - especially 5 days out

 

[T2Kplus20]

euro on board with a major storm now too

GFS is kinda on its own - and while we certainly shouldn’t dismiss it - having ukie, Canadian and euro in agreement is very telling - especially 5 days out

Massive wishcasting already going on with this one. Normally not a good sign for the snow lovers.

 

[bac2therac]

euro on board with a major storm now too

GFS is kinda on its own - and while we certainly shouldn’t dismiss it - having ukie, Canadian and euro in agreement is very telling - especially 5 days out

Its 5 days out so alot can change.

Anyone detailed analysis of clown maps and ratios and how much north of 95 and how much south of 276 is laughable at this juncture

See last year. That thread prolly should get bumped to see how it played out

 

[Caliknight]

Its 5 days out so alot can change.

Anyone detailed analysis of clown maps and ratios and how much north of 95 and how much south of 276 is laughable at this juncture

See last year. That thread prolly should get bumped to see how it played out

That was an all time NimberSan failure lol

 

[Mikemarc]

Massive wishcasting already going on with this one. Normally not a good sign for the snow lovers.

no one is wish casting . Just posting what models are saying

FWIW, NWS New York City (upton) just released a bulletin, and they’re seeing a suppression trend which may keep the huge totals away from us and more south

 

[bac2therac]

no one is wish casting . Just posting what models are saying

FWIW, NWS New York City (upton) just released a bulletin, and they’re seeing a suppression trend which may keep the huge totals away from us and more south

the signs are there on gfs and euro aloft which verbatim is just overrunning without any secondary development like we see on the other models

but the cat is out of the bag....the public knows, its not just snow weenie nerds. People are expecting a big snow this weekend

 

[Postman_1]

From NWS bulletin

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the track of low
pressure developing along the east coast Sunday and passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. Recent trends in the both
the dynamical and AI models are clearly trending toward a more
southward suppression of the storm track. The GFS in particular is
the most suppressed, keeping the area dry. Even the Canadian which
is still fairly wet, has shown a trend in the highest QPF axis to
shift south. The latest long term NBM (13Z) has come up with chances
of snow, but based on trends in the 12Z guidance wanted to keep
chance PoPs no higher than 50 percent. NBM probabilities for snow
amounts of 6 inches or more Sunday into Monday rage from 40 percent
inland, to around 60 percent across Long Island and southern
portions of the NYC metro. The main reason for the differences in
the guidance are likely due to the amount of interaction between the
southern and northern branches of the polar jet. The 12Z guidance is
showing less phasing with the GFS leaving much of the energy behind
across northern Mexico.

Bottom line, we are not out of the woods yet on an accumulating
snowfall event for the region on Sunday, but the next 24-48h will be
critical to see if models find some continuity and lock on better to
a solution.

 

[T2Kplus20]

From NWS bulletin

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the track of low
pressure developing along the east coast Sunday and passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. Recent trends in the both
the dynamical and AI models are clearly trending toward a more
southward suppression of the storm track. The GFS in particular is
the most suppressed, keeping the area dry. Even the Canadian which
is still fairly wet, has shown a trend in the highest QPF axis to
shift south. The latest long term NBM (13Z) has come up with chances
of snow, but based on trends in the 12Z guidance wanted to keep
chance PoPs no higher than 50 percent. NBM probabilities for snow
amounts of 6 inches or more Sunday into Monday rage from 40 percent
inland, to around 60 percent across Long Island and southern
portions of the NYC metro. The main reason for the differences in
the guidance are likely due to the amount of interaction between the
southern and northern branches of the polar jet. The 12Z guidance is
showing less phasing with the GFS leaving much of the energy behind
across northern Mexico.

Bottom line, we are not out of the woods yet on an accumulating
snowfall event for the region on Sunday, but the next 24-48h will be
critical to see if models find some continuity and lock on better to
a solution.

So.....bust?

 

[Mikemarc]

the signs are there on gfs and euro aloft which verbatim is just overrunning without any secondary development like we see on the other models

but the cat is out of the bag....the public knows, its not just snow weenie nerds. People are expecting a big snow this weekend

anyone “expecting” anything 5 days before a storm is an idiot.