I completely agree with this: for major events we should have a dedicated thread.
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
I completely agree with this: for major events we should have a dedicated thread.
Could be a fun ride home Sunday for me from upstate NY. This will be our 40th year of gathering in the woods with my RU buddies although the group has changed over the years there is still a core group of about 5 that have been going since the first one in 1986
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Euro brings mixing issues to central jersey in the afternoon much like canadian and lesser extent Ukie
Might be model battle taking place with the idea of the overruning thump to snizzle as the main energy goes north vs the idea of coastal low popping overnight Sunday enhancing the snow and making it long duration
Might be model battle taking place with the idea of the overruning thump to snizzle as the main energy goes north vs the idea of coastal low popping overnight Sunday enhancing the snow and making it long duration
The "other" thread is saying 24-36" of snow in central jersey.
He better notThe "other" thread is saying 24-36" of snow in central jersey.
not as many men as burning man but the fire gets just as big. we usually head home sunday AM so hoping its not too bad upstate at least.
So does that mean more snow near the coast or a coastal low means more snow overall for everyone?
Here is the 2:33 p.m. discussion from the National Weather Service in Mount Holly (NBM is the "national blend of models" -- I'm not sure how much faith to have in this):
Snow develops Saturday evening first over Delmarva, then
lifting north into the southern Poconos and far northwest New
Jersey by daybreak Sunday. What continues to be an issue is the
position of the surface low. There are some signals that the
high will be a bit farther north, allowing the low to take a
slightly more northern track. This allows for at least some
sleet and freezing rain for Delmarva and southern New Jersey,
and possibly even a period of all rain for southern Delaware and
extreme southeast New Jersey. Snow continues through Sunday
night before tapering off Monday morning.
13Z/21 NBM has a 90 to 100 percent probability for more than 6
inches of snow for most of Delmarva, the Delaware Valley
including Philadelphia and into southern New Jersey for the 48
hour period ending at 7 am Monday and an 80 to 90 percent
probability for more than 6 inches of snow for the southern
Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey. In addition,
13Z/21 NBM has a 70 to 80 percent probability for more than 12
inches of snow for most of Delmarva, the Delaware Valley
including Philadelphia and into southern New Jersey for the 48
hour period ending at 7 am Monday and a 60 to 70 percent
probability for more than 12 inches of snow for the rest of the
forecast area.
In addition, the 13Z/21 NBM has a 25 to 35 percent probability
for more than 0.1 inches of ice for Delmarva and 10 to 20
percent probability for more than 0.1 inches of ice for the I-95
corridor in southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, highlighting
the potential for that mixing.
Snow develops Saturday evening first over Delmarva, then
lifting north into the southern Poconos and far northwest New
Jersey by daybreak Sunday. What continues to be an issue is the
position of the surface low. There are some signals that the
high will be a bit farther north, allowing the low to take a
slightly more northern track. This allows for at least some
sleet and freezing rain for Delmarva and southern New Jersey,
and possibly even a period of all rain for southern Delaware and
extreme southeast New Jersey. Snow continues through Sunday
night before tapering off Monday morning.
13Z/21 NBM has a 90 to 100 percent probability for more than 6
inches of snow for most of Delmarva, the Delaware Valley
including Philadelphia and into southern New Jersey for the 48
hour period ending at 7 am Monday and an 80 to 90 percent
probability for more than 6 inches of snow for the southern
Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey. In addition,
13Z/21 NBM has a 70 to 80 percent probability for more than 12
inches of snow for most of Delmarva, the Delaware Valley
including Philadelphia and into southern New Jersey for the 48
hour period ending at 7 am Monday and a 60 to 70 percent
probability for more than 12 inches of snow for the rest of the
forecast area.
In addition, the 13Z/21 NBM has a 25 to 35 percent probability
for more than 0.1 inches of ice for Delmarva and 10 to 20
percent probability for more than 0.1 inches of ice for the I-95
corridor in southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, highlighting
the potential for that mixing.
Warm air will definitely be a concern for south and central Jersey for those that want there higher totals.
storm continuing to trend north. Which means warmer air to the south of it which means mixing issues. Probably not warm enough for rain - but sleet will hold down these areas from getting the blockbuster amounts some models were showing yesterday.
still way too many questions and way too early to make amount guesses. Just keep following the trend.
storm continuing to trend north. Which means warmer air to the south of it which means mixing issues. Probably not warm enough for rain - but sleet will hold down these areas from getting the blockbuster amounts some models were showing yesterday.
still way too many questions and way too early to make amount guesses. Just keep following the trend.
I'd rather have all snow then the mixing slop on top of the snow. Way easier to shovel/snow blow IMO
There will be initial overrunning where it will be cold enough to give us a thump of snow including the coast but that could change there to ice or rain earlier while ending as snizzle elsewhere
The big question is if there is a coastal that pops..the energy would be further south so everyone is cold and widespread 8-16 inches long duration type
Basically if you dont like snow you root for the overrunning and moving out scenerio which still could give 6 inches plus most places and perhaps less on coast
Way too early to have any confidence
Alot of times we get the initial thump but dryslot somewhat and it peters out to a snizzle rather than significant icing
Numbers is a big fan of NBM maps and NWS does use them to pin a forecast but at 4 days out i disagree with him on their usefullness. But you see if everything does fall in line there us potential for a 12-18 snowstorm region wide
Can you name some of the worst storms over the period from memory? Name snow storms is silly. How many named flops are out there?
Latest American model stops this trend in a big way. Keeps the bulk of the storm to our south - meaning colder air and no mixing issues - but less liquid.
We keep tracking,
it cuts qpf for sure and the phase isnt quite there...still verbatim its 5-10 inches depending on ratios. Now a third possibility jumps into the ring..model mayhem and thats why tracking storm 7-8 days out is never good. We have made it to 84 hours before start time and the models are more divergent that ever.
I don't think people realize what a foot plus of snow would be like for towns/infrastructure and overall difficulty for everyday folk. 4-8 inches sounds good to me.
I have no issues tracking storms this far out - but as I’ve been saying - it should be about trends 4-8 days out. No need for amounts, and maps, and analyzing every model run. People are living and dying by every model run - which is not the way forecast,
I am a little leery of the idea of blending models (as NBM does) in any field. Blending doesn't guarantee that the errors will cancel out, but rather can cause worse errors. You're certainly right that everything is speculative four days out.
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Not just flops, but they name clippers and other small storms. Storms that wouldn't be memorable even if they out perform.
yeah currently the nbm has a wide wide swatch of 12-18 inches not only in the northeast but south of us but generally we know that is very unlikely to happen. Its nice to look at for potential but less so this far out for accuracy
well they didnt even name the seasons first storm that gave us 5-6 inches
Nailed it. But I also enjoy the smack talk. Hoping Nimbers can't help himself and posts a few times in bac's great thread.