Agree but thats what happens when storms start getting tracked 7 days out
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Those already excited could be accused of having FernWood. ?
18z euro was a big hit, a prolonged 2 day 12-16 inch type event
Per TV 12 :
European Model projects significant snow for NJ
American Model projects minimal - if any - snow for NJ
If I’m right - American model has been modeling better as of late.
We ll know much more by Thursday
European Model projects significant snow for NJ
American Model projects minimal - if any - snow for NJ
If I’m right - American model has been modeling better as of late.
We ll know much more by Thursday
Definitely trust the American model more than the others. It's be way better over the past few seasons. Looks like this is mostly going south of us.
Is this the official thread?
It is for those who want to have a real candid conversation without extreme snow bias
Definitely a north trend so far in tonight’s models (more north = more snow)
one model is trending so far north, that it actually brings a threat of sleet to the area.
but the specifics are irrelevant right now. Just focus on the trends.
one model is trending so far north, that it actually brings a threat of sleet to the area.
but the specifics are irrelevant right now. Just focus on the trends.
is it me or was numbers not as bad with the snow wishing a few years ago? It seems he has gotten insufferable over the past few years
I think he was worse years ago. I think he worse about smaller type events
A 2nd model is way north as well. The UKIE brings mixing issues into north nj. Though some of our biggest snowstorms in history had mixing issues.
Moral of the story - the north trend is evident.
Moral of the story - the north trend is evident.
Amazing that we we were hearing temps not getting above teens and now hearing mixing issues with a northerly run. SNJ snow lovers gonna be upset if it happens
I have a feeling that’s what happens. Dan Zarrow was reporting this morning the Euro is showing mixing and rain for parts on Jersey and heaviest snows up north now.
it is a outlier from the others but I think this is usually the most accurate model
From Mt. Holly:
KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase the area will be affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall. Low pressure will begin organizing itself near the Texas Gulf coast Saturday. This will occur as several pieces of upper level energy dive southward into the base of the persistent long wave trough dominating over the CONUS. Saturday night into Sunday these pieces of upper level energy will to at least some degree "phase" with one another helping to drive deepening surface low pressure through the southeastern states then north and east towards roughly around the Virginia coast by late Sunday. Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the placement and the track of the low due to better phasing of upper level energy as just noted. However there continues to be some uncertainty regarding more specific details and this will ultimately affect the storms track, speed, and strength. This will impact where the heaviest precip falls along with precip types. Nevertheless, confidence has grown that much of the area has a good chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall totals with this system. The NBM probabilities of 6+ inches with this storm now range from around 60 percent over the southern Poconos to the 80 to 90 percent range near and south of the urban corridor. Guidance is also in good general agreement that total QPF amounts with the system have the potential to be 1+ inches in many areas. The main challenge is again, the track of the low which determines who gets the heaviest precip and if we actually get into any mixing limiting snow amounts. The GFS has trended north putting much of the area in the "sweet spot" for very heavy snow amounts. However the GEM and ECMWF have trended north as well and now track the low close enough to Delmarva that mixing may occur at the height of the storm late Sunday. Regardless, expect snow to most likely start breaking out over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. All areas look to certainly be cold enough initially to see all snow. In fact lows Saturday night look to once again be down into the single numbers north with teens to around 20 farther south. Heading into the day Sunday, expect snow will be continuing across the area and may fall heavy at times along with NE winds starting to increase, especially along the coast. Late day Sunday into Sunday night is when southern portions of the CWA (mainly Delmarva into adjacent portion of south Jersey but potentially as far north as Philly) could see some mixing if the low takes a close enough track to the area. However given the strong artic high and antecedent cold airmass in place, plain rain looks less likely than a mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain if any mixing does in fact occur. If this mixing does occur for a time, a change back to all snow is likely later Sunday night into early Monday before precip winds down across the area into Monday. As already mentioned, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding total snow amounts. 24 hours ago this looked like more of a question of a near "miss" to the south vs. a big snowstorm. Now it`s looking like a more or less a lock that this storm will affect the area with significant precip with the question then shifting to whether the track actually gets too far north to bring a mix or changeover into the area. If this occurs, the very heaviest snow amounts may end up near or even north of the urban corridor vs coastal and southern portions of the area. We say this while stressing the fact that the very heaviest snow amounts within these type of large systems are still often only 100 miles wide or less. S/E of the snowfall max you get ice or rain vs. N/W precip amounts are lighter. For this reason, it will still take at least a couple more forecast cycles to have a clearer idea on the details of where any "blockbuster" snow amounts could occur within our County Warning area.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase the area will be affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall. Low pressure will begin organizing itself near the Texas Gulf coast Saturday. This will occur as several pieces of upper level energy dive southward into the base of the persistent long wave trough dominating over the CONUS. Saturday night into Sunday these pieces of upper level energy will to at least some degree "phase" with one another helping to drive deepening surface low pressure through the southeastern states then north and east towards roughly around the Virginia coast by late Sunday. Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the placement and the track of the low due to better phasing of upper level energy as just noted. However there continues to be some uncertainty regarding more specific details and this will ultimately affect the storms track, speed, and strength. This will impact where the heaviest precip falls along with precip types. Nevertheless, confidence has grown that much of the area has a good chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall totals with this system. The NBM probabilities of 6+ inches with this storm now range from around 60 percent over the southern Poconos to the 80 to 90 percent range near and south of the urban corridor. Guidance is also in good general agreement that total QPF amounts with the system have the potential to be 1+ inches in many areas. The main challenge is again, the track of the low which determines who gets the heaviest precip and if we actually get into any mixing limiting snow amounts. The GFS has trended north putting much of the area in the "sweet spot" for very heavy snow amounts. However the GEM and ECMWF have trended north as well and now track the low close enough to Delmarva that mixing may occur at the height of the storm late Sunday. Regardless, expect snow to most likely start breaking out over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. All areas look to certainly be cold enough initially to see all snow. In fact lows Saturday night look to once again be down into the single numbers north with teens to around 20 farther south. Heading into the day Sunday, expect snow will be continuing across the area and may fall heavy at times along with NE winds starting to increase, especially along the coast. Late day Sunday into Sunday night is when southern portions of the CWA (mainly Delmarva into adjacent portion of south Jersey but potentially as far north as Philly) could see some mixing if the low takes a close enough track to the area. However given the strong artic high and antecedent cold airmass in place, plain rain looks less likely than a mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain if any mixing does in fact occur. If this mixing does occur for a time, a change back to all snow is likely later Sunday night into early Monday before precip winds down across the area into Monday. As already mentioned, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding total snow amounts. 24 hours ago this looked like more of a question of a near "miss" to the south vs. a big snowstorm. Now it`s looking like a more or less a lock that this storm will affect the area with significant precip with the question then shifting to whether the track actually gets too far north to bring a mix or changeover into the area. If this occurs, the very heaviest snow amounts may end up near or even north of the urban corridor vs coastal and southern portions of the area. We say this while stressing the fact that the very heaviest snow amounts within these type of large systems are still often only 100 miles wide or less. S/E of the snowfall max you get ice or rain vs. N/W precip amounts are lighter. For this reason, it will still take at least a couple more forecast cycles to have a clearer idea on the details of where any "blockbuster" snow amounts could occur within our County Warning area.
i thought this thread was for people who didn't want to read 10,000 words?
He's been wrong so often and with a bunch of epic embarrassments. That's takes a toll.
I am truly dumbfounded by grown men acting like gossiping school girls. Thank you both, numbers and bac, for the weather information.
+1
Those snow weenies cluck like hens whenever there is the smallest possibility of a dusting. Hopefully they grow-up.
We're not going to have a 100% confirmed forecast tomorrow if ever. But we will (we hope) know more,
Bac quotes above the National Weather Service's discussion. You can find that on-line by going to the NWS's site, putting your zip code in the little box, and then hitting "forecast discussion" toward the bottom of the page. Here's the latest for Philadelphia, including Middlesex County. I don't know if this will continue to be a good link:
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Well when this happens tomorrow…
I will re-prep my snowblower.
So that’s as close to a 100% no snow, at least around me, as it gets.
It's getting a little chippy in Nimbers wide-ranging "Winter Weather Trend" thread since he rushed to update it as soon as he saw bac's storm-focused thread.
I don’t even care about all that stuff.
And I truly appreciate what everyone does when we have a weather event too. The other stuff we should all be able to tune out as adults. It’s just noise.
My only beef was to have separate event thread then leaving it buried with a trend one.
Do we have one long running game thread for the whole Football or Basketball seasons? No, we have an individual game thread for each one because they are all different. Just like each significant weather event.
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12z models verbatim
Dont worry about ratios right now
GFS: 12-18
GFS AI AIGFS: 8-16
GGEM: 6-10...sleet issues
GEFS: 6-10
UKMET: 10-15
The Canadian was pretty north and thats why the sleet issues were introduced. Just one more solution to watch
Euro was delayed but running now
Looking more likely we at least get that initial overrunning of 6 inches plus but then does the coastal pop and linger the storm into Monday
At the moment general start time in NJ will be in the morning Sunday but that can change
Dont worry about ratios right now
GFS: 12-18
GFS AI AIGFS: 8-16
GGEM: 6-10...sleet issues
GEFS: 6-10
UKMET: 10-15
The Canadian was pretty north and thats why the sleet issues were introduced. Just one more solution to watch
Euro was delayed but running now
Looking more likely we at least get that initial overrunning of 6 inches plus but then does the coastal pop and linger the storm into Monday
At the moment general start time in NJ will be in the morning Sunday but that can change