Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

[HunterPKP]

Just coming to the thread to add, if we bomb Iran and/or proxies you can 100% guarantee it’s been cleared with Russia. Not because we’re scared, but because we’re smart.

You have to believe this to be the case. Russia has been partnered with Iran for the better part of 2-3 decades. They've even loaned out Nuclear Engineers on multiple occasions and sold S300s and S400s to Iran in 2023.

I know everyone was disliking Trump's approach to Russia and I still do. That being said, he wasn't placating without getting something in return and don't just think it's agreement on taking care of Iran.

 

[GOPtiger]

We've got 6 B2 bombers at Diego Garcia. 1 more to arrive this week. B52s are also on station there now. Over 10 C17s that are obviously transporting munitions for said bombers. Nearly 10 KC135 tankers. This is NOT a show of force. This is guarantee of force.

By end of week, the USS Carl Vinson will be on station with her Strike Group. The USS Truman has had it's Middle East deployment extended and has been attacking the Houthis in Yemen repeatedly for around a week or so now. A 3rd Strike Group is likely heading that way as well and I would guess it's either the Nimitz (that just departed on her last mission) or the USS Gerald Ford that is in pre-deployment maneuvers in the Western Atlantic. The USS GHWB is also prepping for departure from Norfolk and the USS Lincoln at North Island is prepping for departure. That's a lot of Naval hardware about to be a sea.

Trump's comments that Iran either plays ball or bad things are going to happen is not a bluff. We're gonna continue to hammer the Houthis. The dumbasses actually tried to launch missiles at the Truman Strike Group last week.

Add to it that the Israelis are very wary of Iran's nuclear program. They took out most, if not all air defenses around Iranian Military Critical Infrastructure in their last attack.

Just saying, something to keep close eyes on. This can all be found on the internet if you look. We're not even trying to hide it.

It’s like I was accidentally added to a Signal app text chain

 

[BigPapaWhit]

You have to believe this to be the case. Russia has been partnered with Iran for the better part of 2-3 decades. They've even loaned out Nuclear Engineers on multiple occasions and sold S300s and S400s to Iran in 2023.

I know everyone was disliking Trump's approach to Russia and I still do. That being said, he wasn't placating without getting something in return and don't just think it's agreement on taking care of Iran.

Just coming to the thread to add, if we bomb Iran and/or proxies you can 100% guarantee it’s been cleared with Russia. Not because we’re scared, but because we’re smart.

What are the 2nd and 3rd order effects here? Does Russia want us to get distracted with Iran to take our eyes off of Ukraine. Is Russia just hoping to sacrifice Iran to get the US to ease up on economic sanctions? How does this repositioning impact the Pacific Operation? How are munition stores?

 

[purenonsense]

Maybe we can get Waltz and Hegseth to join us or provide them with TI membership conditional to that they put their info in threads

let them know if they tell us, we wont tell anybody, and if we do, then we will tell them not to tell anybody...

 

[Clemson Goat]

Question: Why do Netanyahu and his political party financially support Hamas and have done so for over a decade?

I would ask the US government the same question.

 

[douggainey]

I always have my eyes on the Middle East. Because at the end of times, that's where the ultimate battle will take place. Glad we are still on Israel's side.

 

[BigPapaWhit]

The bolded part is one of the best ways I've seen it put. Simple and accurate.

If the Palestinians put down their guns there would be peace. If the Israelis put down their guns they would be wiped off the map.

Do you mean if Hamas put down their guns?

Palestinians still need a place to live. Apartheid has been proven to be a failed system, especially if the Palestinians do outnumber the Jews. Algeria, French-Indo China, South Africa immediately comes to mind. Is Israel not just another example of "colonial" rule? Or do Jews get a pass because they have some historical claim to the area? The situation might be brightline to some but not to others.

 

[HunterPKP]

Do you mean if Hamas put down their guns?

Palestinians still need a place to live. Apartheid has been proven to be a failed system, especially if the Palestinians do outnumber the Jews. Algeria, French-Indo China, South Africa immediately comes to mind. Is Israel not just another example of "colonial" rule? Or do Jews get a pass because they have some historical claim to the area? The situation might be brightline to some but not to others.

Israel has offered them a 2 state solution with their own land 5-6 times. They've rejected every single time including when the Arab League was negotiating with Israel for this to happen. You can look this up easily.

 

[CU_4734]

What are the 2nd and 3rd order effects here? Does Russia want us to get distracted with Iran to take our eyes off of Ukraine. Is Russia just hoping to sacrifice Iran to get the US to ease up on economic sanctions? How does this repositioning impact the Pacific Operation? How are munition stores?

Yeah I’m not on the group chat to know the exact answers but we aren’t going to do anything without thinking about 2nd and 3rd order effects. There’s definitely a plan in place but we won’t know until it plays out.

 

[BigPapaWhit]

Israel has offered them a 2 state solution with their own land 5-6 times. They've rejected every single time including when the Arab League was negotiating with Israel for this to happen. You can look this up easily.

How is a two-state solution different than Apartheid if Israel dictates the terms? Has Israel not backed away from such deals as well? To be fair there have been some paths to peace. However, things just seem to happen at most inopportune times. It has been argued that Yassir was afraid of becoming irrelevant (and broke) if peace was realized. If we(universal) are being honest, there are people and parties on all sides that benefit from a continued conflict. Unfortunately, innocent civilians on both sides are being hurt. My heart goes out to them. I am not sure Israel is in the right. That being said if I was in their position I am not sure I would act different. I just think the debate is much more nuanced.

Maybe we should move on...for now. I am on the verge of derailing a thread that was should have been titled "Where in the World is San Diego Garcia? and does he play short stop?"

 

[HunterPKP]

How is a two-state solution different than Apartheid if Israel dictates the terms? Has Israel not backed away from such deals as well? To be fair there have been some paths to peace. However, things just seem to happen at most inopportune times. It has been argued that Yassir was afraid of becoming irrelevant (and broke) if peace was realized. If we(universal) are being honest, there are people and parties on all sides that benefit from a continued conflict. Unfortunately, innocent civilians on both sides are being hurt. My heart goes out to them. I am not sure Israel is in the right. That being said if I was in their position I am not sure I would act different. I just think the debate is much more nuanced.

Maybe we should move on...for now. I am on the verge of derailing a thread that was should have been titled "Where in the World is San Diego Garcia? and does he play short stop?"

Because it's not even remotely close to the definition of Apartheid. Especially how it was approached in South Africa. Israel let them self govern in Gaza for instance. That was never allowed during Apartheid in South Africa. Apples to hand grenades. Not even apples to oranges. 5-6 rejections of a solution even when the Arab League was telling them they should take a couple puts onus on Palestine. Not Israel.

 

[BigPapaWhit]

Yeah I’m not on the group chat to know the exact answers but we aren’t going to do anything without thinking about 2nd and 3rd order effects. There’s definitely a plan in place but we won’t know until it plays out.

Not to be smart but is that not why war games are played, so we are not caught with our pants down? Unless you are saying there are several, but we are not sure which scenario will play out. Cannot help but feel that the Russian have been a few steps ahead of NATO (inc the US) for some time. Putin is not an idiot just does not have a strong hand.

 

[anon1753124268]

When my secure network blocks the links you post....that tells you the credibility of the source.

Tiger illustrated.com works. Credible x1,000,000

 

[PawsFan]

That's great. My brother was deployed there from 2010 to 2011 before joining Space & Missile Defense Command for his last assignment before getting out. He would have zero reason to lie about it unless UAE, Saudi, and Qatar had already purchased their own and we had oversight.

2010 and 2011? I'm not suggesting your brother is lying. Nor do have I seen a Defended Asset List for the CENTCOM AOR from 2010. Anyone who wrote it is sitting in a Florida retirement home by now. There's likely a misunderstanding in here somewhere. So as a guy with more than a few ounces of experience and knowledge - I've, more recently, lived more than two years of my life in Qatar wearing a uniform and the Air Force still pays me for what I know - let me explain to you why we don't defend other countries' stuff (at least directly).
1. If we do it for one country, we have to do it for others that ask or risk insulting them. All our GCC friends like to compare the size of their johnsons. America protecting their stuff makes their willy a little bigger in their own eyes and creates shrinkage in the eyes of their neighbors'. That's not good in a world where its tough to keep everyone happy. I've also helped answer these questions from our GCC friends before.
2. We don't have a lot of stuff. Patriot batteries are a globally managed high demand asset. The SECDEF signs off on their deployments. We don't have enough of them. Patriot units optempo is high and as a result, their retention of talented Soldiers suffers. Adding "stuff" defend only increases that optempo and exacerbates the problem. I've been to a Patriot battery in the Qatari desert. Great Americans one and all but I'll just say it made me grateful I joined the Navy.
3. What if we fail? What if we sign up to defend a friends stuff, and we fail, and it goes boom. Makes us looking pretty bad right? Why sign up for that grief and liability. I can tell you that if we failed, in Arab culture, they would expect us to rebuild or replace whatever was destroyed. If not, we just lost a lot of wasta.
4. The stuff we're defending is far more valuable in a fight than any civilian infrastructure.

UAE, Saudi and Qatar all have Patriot and THAAD.

As part of the agreement with Qatar to have Patriot in their country, some of the units defend their US asset as well as about half the city of Doha.

Nope. Qatar has far more Patriot batteries in their country than we do.

Now all that said......if something were to come after a friend's stuff, we see it, our stuff isn't at risk, and can act......I'm pretty sure we take action. But that's not an agreement between our nations.

God Bless. I'll shut up now.

 

[HunterPKP]

2010 and 2011? I'm not suggesting your brother is lying. Nor do have I seen a Defended Asset List for the CENTCOM AOR from 2010. Anyone who wrote it is sitting in a Florida retirement home by now. There's likely a misunderstanding in here somewhere. So as a guy with more than a few ounces of experience and knowledge - I've, more recently, lived more than two years of my life in Qatar wearing a uniform and the Air Force still pays me for what I know - let me explain to you why we don't defend other countries' stuff (at least directly).
1. If we do it for one country, we have to do it for others that ask or risk insulting them. All our GCC friends like to compare the size of their johnsons. America protecting their stuff makes their willy a little bigger in their own eyes and creates shrinkage in the eyes of their neighbors'. That's not good in a world where its tough to keep everyone happy. I've also helped answer these questions from our GCC friends before.
2. We don't have a lot of stuff. Patriot batteries are a globally managed high demand asset. The SECDEF signs off on their deployments. We don't have enough of them. Patriot units optempo is high and as a result, their retention of talented Soldiers suffers. Adding "stuff" defend only increases that optempo and exacerbates the problem. I've been to a Patriot battery in the Qatari desert. Great Americans one and all but I'll just say it made me grateful I joined the Navy.
3. What if we fail? What if we sign up to defend a friends stuff, and we fail, and it goes boom. Makes us looking pretty bad right? Why sign up for that grief and liability. I can tell you that if we failed, in Arab culture, they would expect us to rebuild or replace whatever was destroyed. If not, we just lost a lot of wasta.
4. The stuff we're defending is far more valuable in a fight than any civilian infrastructure.

UAE, Saudi and Qatar all have Patriot and THAAD.



Nope. Qatar has far more Patriot batteries in their country than we do.

Now all that said......if something were to come after a friend's stuff, we see it, our stuff isn't at risk, and can act......I'm pretty sure we take action. But that's not an agreement between our nations.

God Bless. I'll shut up now.

I appreciate what you're saying. I really do, but I texted my brother on this earlier and he said that during his deployment, we were indeed were tasked with protecting the Natural Gas facility in Doha and the refinery in Saudi.

Edit to add a pic of my brother and his leadership team. Pretty sure those are those Raytheon bad boys behind them.

 

[BigPapaWhit]

Because it's not even remotely close to the definition of Apartheid. Especially how it was approached in South Africa. Israel let them self govern in Gaza for instance. That was never allowed during Apartheid in South Africa. Apples to hand grenades. Not even apples to oranges. 5-6 rejections of a solution even when the Arab League was telling them they should take a couple puts onus on Palestine. Not Israel.

I was more referring to a minority trying to dictate to the majority where they can live and work defined by fences, travel passes, and laws. Maybe I am blending arguments. I am not spun up on all the solutions that have been on the table. Something I willingly concede. However, I am not prepared to say Israel is without fault at this point. However, to the victors go the spoils. Although, I do worry about their long-term chances in a region where they are the minority. Maybe what the Middle East needs is a strong HOA?

 

[BigPapaWhit]

@HunterPKP just to be clear I am not targeting you. Just voicing points from my own mind, discussing with you the same way my family did around the dinner table when I was growing up. Or the same way I might do over a few beers with friends at the bar or a bonfire. I have way more questions than answers.

 

[CU_4734]

Not to be smart but is that not why war games are played, so we are not caught with our pants down? Unless you are saying there are several, but we are not sure which scenario will play out. Cannot help but feel that the Russian have been a few steps ahead of NATO (inc the US) for some time. Putin is not an idiot just does not have a strong hand.

Yeah sorry when I said we won’t know I meant you and I. I’m saying there is a plan that’s been vetted meticulously and we’ve made Putin aware of our intentions in the Middle East. Obviously he didn’t draw a line in the sand cause it appears we’ve got equipment in route to **** **** up

 

[Jhstans86]

2010 and 2011? I'm not suggesting your brother is lying. Nor do have I seen a Defended Asset List for the CENTCOM AOR from 2010. Anyone who wrote it is sitting in a Florida retirement home by now. There's likely a misunderstanding in here somewhere. So as a guy with more than a few ounces of experience and knowledge - I've, more recently, lived more than two years of my life in Qatar wearing a uniform and the Air Force still pays me for what I know - let me explain to you why we don't defend other countries' stuff (at least directly).
1. If we do it for one country, we have to do it for others that ask or risk insulting them. All our GCC friends like to compare the size of their johnsons. America protecting their stuff makes their willy a little bigger in their own eyes and creates shrinkage in the eyes of their neighbors'. That's not good in a world where its tough to keep everyone happy. I've also helped answer these questions from our GCC friends before.
2. We don't have a lot of stuff. Patriot batteries are a globally managed high demand asset. The SECDEF signs off on their deployments. We don't have enough of them. Patriot units optempo is high and as a result, their retention of talented Soldiers suffers. Adding "stuff" defend only increases that optempo and exacerbates the problem. I've been to a Patriot battery in the Qatari desert. Great Americans one and all but I'll just say it made me grateful I joined the Navy.
3. What if we fail? What if we sign up to defend a friends stuff, and we fail, and it goes boom. Makes us looking pretty bad right? Why sign up for that grief and liability. I can tell you that if we failed, in Arab culture, they would expect us to rebuild or replace whatever was destroyed. If not, we just lost a lot of wasta.
4. The stuff we're defending is far more valuable in a fight than any civilian infrastructure.

UAE, Saudi and Qatar all have Patriot and THAAD.



Nope. Qatar has far more Patriot batteries in their country than we do.

Now all that said......if something were to come after a friend's stuff, we see it, our stuff isn't at risk, and can act......I'm pretty sure we take action. But that's not an agreement between our nations.

God Bless. I'll shut up now.

I was stationed in at ADAB as BDE AFAFCO, the higher echelon to the Patriot batteries in the CENTCOM AOR. I know that one Pat site covers a portion of Doha.

 

[rialb]

Better double check your carrier locations. The USS Truman is the only one close by. Any of the others you mentioned would take two weeks to get in place.

 

[P. Marlowe]

5 more C-17s into Al-Udeid late today. 3 out of Ramstein and 2 out of Zweibrücken (supposedly). Guessing they were all out of Ramstein and there was some sort of weird transponder issue or something else weird going on.

Supposedly some additional B-1s headed that direction too in the next couple days.

 

[P. Marlowe]

Better double check your carrier locations. The USS Truman is the only one close by. Any of the others you mentioned would take two weeks to get in place.

 

[harristeeter]

This thread

 

[USMClemson2007]

Do you mean if Hamas put down their guns?

Palestinians still need a place to live. Apartheid has been proven to be a failed system, especially if the Palestinians do outnumber the Jews. Algeria, French-Indo China, South Africa immediately comes to mind. Is Israel not just another example of "colonial" rule? Or do Jews get a pass because they have some historical claim to the area? The situation might be brightline to some but not to others.

I don’t mean Hamas. Hamas is still exceedingly popular in Gaza. Palestinian civilians (those not previously affiliated with Hamas) were involved in the kidnapping, rape, and murder of Israeli civilians on October 7th.
Words have meanings, and the word Palestinian was chosen deliberately.
Gaza was turned over to Palestinians in the early 2000s. They could have governed themselves and acted peacefully. Instead they put Hamas in control. Despite the risk of terror attacks, Israel allowed Palestinians to obtain work visas and come into Israel for jobs. That was repaid with the intentional targeting of Israeli citizens.
The playbook of Palestinian apologists is to say civilians have been killed in Gaza. I’ll say there is a significant difference in the deliberate targeting of civilians and fighters hiding under the skirts of women and behind children. The terrorists need to be killed, bottom line. The Israeli military has taken significant risks to their own troops to reduce civilian casualties.

 

[HunterPKP]

Better double check your carrier locations. The USS Truman is the only one close by. Any of the others you mentioned would take two weeks to get in place.

The Carl Vinson Strike Group passed through the Sulu Sea yesterday. It left Guam on 3/24. It's tasked with a ME deployment. I assume that's around another 7 or so days from now.

 

[PawsFan]

5 more C-17s into Al-Udeid late today. 3 out of Ramstein and 2 out of Zweibrücken (supposedly). Guessing they were all out of Ramstein and there was some sort of weird transponder issue or something else weird going on.

Supposedly some additional B-1s headed that direction too in the next couple days.

You know are typically 5 C-17's on the ramp at the Deid every day right?. It's the central logistics hub for AMD in the Mideast.

 

[PawsFan]

CVN is not in the AOR.....yet.

 

[HunterPKP]

@HunterPKP just to be clear I am not targeting you. Just voicing points from my own mind, discussing with you the same way my family did around the dinner table when I was growing up. Or the same way I might do over a few beers with friends at the bar or a bonfire. I have way more questions than answers.

Allgood man. Allgood.

 

[HunterPKP]

You know are typically 5 C-17's on the ramp at the Deid every day right?. It's the central logistics hub for AMD in the Mideast.

Usually more than that. A few C5s as well. That's where the JSTARS would predominantly be as well when my sister and BIL were still active.

 

[tigerridge]

I have a question that some of you are far more qualified to answer than anyone else I know. If we were to go after the nuclear facilities, do you think that we would also target Iranian leadership ? Would that be a move "too far", or would it be a benefit to preventing further escalation ?

 

[HunterPKP]

I have a question that some of you are far more qualified to answer than anyone else I know. If we were to go after the nuclear facilities, do you think that we would also target Iranian leadership ? Would that be a move "too far", or would it be a benefit to preventing further escalation ?

I'm speculating here, but I highly doubt we would also do a decapitation strike.

 

[P. Marlowe]

You know are typically 5 C-17's on the ramp at the Deid every day right?. It's the central logistics hub for AMD in the Mideast.

Yes but in conjunction with the number of C-5s earlier in the week coming from Osan, and the fact that 2 came out of Zweibrücken, it was noteworthy.

 

[HunterPKP]

CVN is not in the AOR.....yet.

I can't see that media you responded to but the Vinson passed through the Sulu Sea west of the Philippines 36-48 hours ago. It'll be there in 7 or so days.

 

[Dbatz]

Ya know, we had a deal in place to oversee/limit Iran's nuclear program but some people just want to see Tehran destroyed by nuclear fire so we pulled out of that

They were blatantly, breaking the rules and snubbing their nose, and laughing at us that agreement wasn’t worth the paper it was written on

 

[tboonpickens]

This is a very dangerous, telling situation. As I’ve mentioned numerous times, Russia & Iran are in bed together. Russia supplies Iran with Plutonium for their nuclear weapons program. Going to war with Iran will certainly bring Russia into the mix. Russia is already pissed off @ the United States for supplying Ukraine with weapons & are specifically pissed @ the United States for an attack on a beach that killed & wounded woman & children.

I’ve also warned the TI subscribers many times that an attack on our soil is imminent & it has been planned out for a long time. Unfortunately, we will be attacked by China & Russia. A handful of our cities will be hit with nukes & an EMP.

Do you think Trump is a Putin puppet as most of the world including our NATO allies seem to believe?

 

[CU Alumnus]

Those B2's need some target practice. I don't think they are used much

They get more use than the poor B1.

Coolest looking bomber we have and we never seem to use it. Pardon the pun but the design never really took off.

 

[CU Alumnus]

We’re a few weeks/months from war, gentlemen. I think the two wars that have been inevitable are gonna happen this year…iran and china/taiwan.

Russia may text our arctic appetite as well

Russia ain’t gonna do **** if they have a single brain cell.

A war between the US and Russia would last as long as we want it to. Their military’s garbage and they cannot project power beyond their borders.

I will say if they do get stupid and **** around they need to find out. As in Russia needs to cease to exist.

 

[CU Alumnus]

I'm a former B-52 crew chief. I spent time in Diego Garcia in the 90s, and I've flown on several supply missions through there as a C-17 crew chief in the early 2000's.

1. They have munition stockpiles there.

2. We've done countless tours there that never amounted to anything. We didn't do squat the whole time I was there. We used to call it, OPERATION DENY CHRISTMAS because it seemed like we always deployed there over Christmas and we never actually did anything.

Still, you may well be right. Your post just brought back a bit of nostalgia and I thought I'd share. Most people have never heard of Diego Garcia.

If it wasn’t for the Transformers movies I’d think Diego Garcia was a dude.

 

[P. Marlowe]

I can't see that media you responded to but the Vinson passed through the Sulu Sea west of the Philippines 36-48 hours ago. It'll be there in 7 or so days.

Telegram post from an Israeli who was deputy governor of Jerich around the time of his military service and then did some intel work before going into the private sector. Still fairly well connected. Posted a picture and captioned it - paraphrasing - “CVN entering Middle East.” Thought it was pretty early/quick, but he is fairly tuned in and connected. Could just have been an old photo or a translation issue, I suppose.

 

[ECSGURU]

I will say if they do get stupid and **** around they need to find out. As in Russia needs to cease to exist.

Ahh yes, the warmonger rears his head. Please explain how you see the US doing that without Russia pushing that big red nuclear button.