Every year, there’s that one team that receives a bid and sends the college basketball community into outrage. In 2024 it was Virginia, and last year it was North Carolina. Could this year be Seton Hall? Who else is holding out (false) hope that we hear our names called today?!
Selection Sunday: Hope
- Thread starter Hall Is Life
- Start date
I have just as much hope that Sydnee Sweeney has sweet dreams of me. But I think the odds of that coming true are better than Seton Hall's today.
The fact we are even having this discussion means we greatly overperformed. Credit to everyone concerned with the program.
Now we have to build from here.
Now we have to build from here.
Most 2025 bracketology projections had UNC as “first four out.” Some even had them as “next four out.” They were 1-12 in Q1 games and even had a Q3 home loss.
All I’m saying is crazier things have happened!
All I’m saying is crazier things have happened!
With that kind of bravado, I'm not going to feel as bad when I steal her away from you.
I dont think we will ge picked, not in a sliver of my brain. But based on the johnnies BET play, I am on them to do well in the tourney, winning 2 at least, I think more.
And I think some people will see them roll into the S16 and say these teams have no chance, hell, Uconn had no chance. But SHU gave them a better game than anyone, three times. Why were they left home.
"And I'd like to ___ Angie Dickinson, let's see who gets lucky first."
-Uncle Junior
-Uncle Junior
Yeah, Seton Hall is not making it and even I'd call for an investigation if they did!
Here's my pick for the surprise:
Auburn in.
Miami (OH) out.
Auburn (17-16) played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation, including the 15th most difficult non-conference schedule. They have victories at Florida (likely #1 seed), a win on a neutral court over Big East champions St. John's, and home wins over Arkansas, Kentucky and NC State, all tournament teams. They are #44 in WAB, Their predictive metrics are also very good - #38 in KenPom.
Miami (OH) (28-1) had no Quad 1 games, much less any Quad 1 wins. They were 2-0 in Quad 2. No wins over a tournament team. A strength of schedule that ranks #339 in the nation. And a horrific Quad 4 loss to UMass, a game which they had to win! They are #37 in WAB, with a 1.69 ranking, which means they basically one 1 1/2 more games than the average bubble team would have won playing their schedule. Who cares? Better question, how many more games would Miami (OH) won playing Auburn's schedule?
Here's my pick for the surprise:
Auburn in.
Miami (OH) out.
Auburn (17-16) played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation, including the 15th most difficult non-conference schedule. They have victories at Florida (likely #1 seed), a win on a neutral court over Big East champions St. John's, and home wins over Arkansas, Kentucky and NC State, all tournament teams. They are #44 in WAB, Their predictive metrics are also very good - #38 in KenPom.
Miami (OH) (28-1) had no Quad 1 games, much less any Quad 1 wins. They were 2-0 in Quad 2. No wins over a tournament team. A strength of schedule that ranks #339 in the nation. And a horrific Quad 4 loss to UMass, a game which they had to win! They are #37 in WAB, with a 1.69 ranking, which means they basically one 1 1/2 more games than the average bubble team would have won playing their schedule. Who cares? Better question, how many more games would Miami (OH) won playing Auburn's schedule?
Hopefully we can get at least one consistent shooter who can create his own shot.
I was about to post this as regards how the Big East is viewed nationally and by the Committee, why most of the teams need to get up a level, and why some head coaches are publicly out there about this.
SJU has 6 losses. Iowa State by 1 on a neutral site (probably a 2 seed, maybe a 3). Alabama at home in a close neck-and-neck game, back in early November (a likely 4 or 5 seed). Kentucky, essentially on the road in ATL, with their two star players who missed most of the year, and where they were winning at halftime (another tourney team). Auburn, a bubble team, in November, neutral site game. Also were winning at halftime. Plus Uconn demolishing them at their place and losing to Providence at home (the one "bad" loss).
So, one bad loss. Beat the 2 seed Uconn twice, including once convincingly. Won the rest of the OOC, including against different high majors. Beat Nova twice, the other BE tourney team. Beat us 3 times, the Big East's lone bubble team. Won the league and conference tournaments.
And that resume from the Big East gets a 5 seed, and one which they did absolutely no favors for sending out West to California and putting them up against Bill Self and Kansas in round 2 if they get past the 12 seed.
SJU has 6 losses. Iowa State by 1 on a neutral site (probably a 2 seed, maybe a 3). Alabama at home in a close neck-and-neck game, back in early November (a likely 4 or 5 seed). Kentucky, essentially on the road in ATL, with their two star players who missed most of the year, and where they were winning at halftime (another tourney team). Auburn, a bubble team, in November, neutral site game. Also were winning at halftime. Plus Uconn demolishing them at their place and losing to Providence at home (the one "bad" loss).
So, one bad loss. Beat the 2 seed Uconn twice, including once convincingly. Won the rest of the OOC, including against different high majors. Beat Nova twice, the other BE tourney team. Beat us 3 times, the Big East's lone bubble team. Won the league and conference tournaments.
And that resume from the Big East gets a 5 seed, and one which they did absolutely no favors for sending out West to California and putting them up against Bill Self and Kansas in round 2 if they get past the 12 seed.
NC State -- our best win -- is in the "last 4 in category" and goes to Dayton.
The perception by the Committee is that the Big East is basically a "tick" above the WCC. Uconn is the Gonzaga. St. John's is the better version of St. Mary's. And this year Nova would be better version of Santa Clara.
The perception by the Committee is that the Big East is basically a "tick" above the WCC. Uconn is the Gonzaga. St. John's is the better version of St. Mary's. And this year Nova would be better version of Santa Clara.
I said this in December and was flat out told I was wrong. Looks like I was actually correct.
A lot of what a group of us posted about the OOC and around Maui specifically has proven correct, which of course wasn't meant to rain on any parade, but simply our objective views on what things meant at that time versus the competition. I got so sick of the snarky or trolling responses that I stopped posting for weeks, figuring best to let the dust settle a bit.
Look at it from this perspective. Duke is overall 1. Equity theory says they get the weakest 4 seed so the 16th overall seed but then the strongest 5 seed to the 17th overall seed. Had St John's won 2 of their sec games they would have been a protected seed.
Why is Arkansas going to Portland?
Part of it, but can’t be all of it. The teams themselves beyond the top two or three just need to get better so we are starting with the view nationally and by the Committee that the Big East isn’t the WCC.
To add to this, UConn’s 2 seed is driven in part by their OOC success. But last year SJU also got a 2 without anywhere near as challenging an OOC as this year. Maybe one W over another tourney team out of conference. But within the league they got 8 matchups against other NCAA tourney teams plus the conference tournament. My recall is they went something like 7-1 in those games plus whoever they beat in the BE (forget which of that group). Far different this year when league play involved such a bigger slew of mediocre to bad teams.
Agree, several teams with resources just didn’t get the job done. But the only way to show that the league is better is for more teams to win meaningful OOC games. If that happens then there are more Quad 1&2 opportunities during league play.
Nebraska is a 4 seed. Go look at their OOC, who they played, and who they beat. I think our OOC was better than Nebraska's, both in terms of who we faced and what we did. But Nebraska has 9000 opportunities within the league to get quality wins.
St John's was a 2 seed last year, outside of Thanksgiving week holiday event where they faced 3 P4 teams and lost twice and playing the pitino bowl vs unm their ooc was similar to shu this season
Yes. Because the Big East was better. So despite losing in the OOC to some dance-worthy opponents, 18 wins in the league meant a lot more. Again, right now the Big East is basically viewed as a slightly better version of the WCC. That needs to change.