Shenandoah----Next-to-Last Weekend of Regular Season

longtimerhsfan

All-Conference
Dec 11, 2006
5,582
1,585
0
As you can see from other threads, the math whizzes among us are feverishly trying to figure out the points and who will finish where in the final rankings. I will leave that up to them since the system sails wayyyy above me. So instead I will do what I do about this time every week, which is try to stimulate some discussion about the four Shenandoah games that are on tap.

Recapping last Friday's games, there were no surprises, although I will comment that both Riverheads' win over Wilson and East Rock's over Luray came a little easier than expected. So that may mean that things have sorted themselves out a little more and that we may not have too much suspense left in the regular season.

So looking ahead to this week......

Riverheads is hosting Stonewall and Gap travels to Page in a couple of games where the only mystery will be the final score. In the other two, Wilson will be fighting for whatever playoff hopes it might still have with a trip to East Rock and Stuarts Draft travels to Luray in what could be the closest game of the night.

East Rock seems to have found itself with the return of McNair and I think they will have enough horses to handle Wilson. So I will go with the home team by about two touchdowns in that one.

SD and Luray seem to each be solidly in the playoffs in their respective divisions, so there might not be a ton of pressure at work in this one. The Dogs seemed to have had their strongest bark and bite earlier in the season, when they started out 4-0, but things have gone south for them since then. SD has been a little more consistent and should be able to bring a win back home, but it could be within a touchdown or two.

If these two games do go that way, then we are probably looking at those two winners ultimately finishing 4-3 in the district, although they wrap up the regular season with trips to Buffalo Gap and Riverheads where they would love to knock those two programs out of their high perches in the rankings. But we will discuss that next week.

If Wilson and Luray are in fact unable to get the job done this week, they will drop to 2-4 in the district, but will get to finish on a high note since they close out their seasons with Page and Stonewall. Luray might then say they were better since they won a 7-6 head-to-head match-up, but Wilson might claim otherwise, since they won that one every place but on the scoreboard if I remember the story correctly.

However it all sorts out, it appears that we could have as many as five, maybe even six, playoff teams and that is pretty impressive any way you slice it.
 
Last edited:

TimWakefield

Freshman
Nov 3, 2001
594
98
0
Wilson's D is probably capable of slowing ER down, but it won't keep them down enough to be able to score more than them. ER 28 Wilson 17 (Which may be closer than some think)

Draft's success will depend on which team shows up. Draft's A effort beats Luray's A effort, so I'll take Draft by a TD, but the Cougars are capable of losing this game because Luray can toss the ball and get it down field. I'll say Draft 34 Luray 28 but I think this is the biggest toss up of the last few weeks.

RHS by 42
Gap by 39
 

RedPrideNation_RollPride

All-Conference
Oct 13, 2014
2,773
2,480
63
ER 28-14, SD 24-21, Gap 42-14, RHS 49-13

I agree with most of what is stated above. I do differ on the score but we amateurs never get that part right, lol.
 

obguthr

Senior
May 29, 2003
1,886
789
0
The Draft/Luray game sounds like the most interesting, but I don't think I feel like driving all the way to Luray. I wish that game was at Draft. I doubt I go to see East Rock/Wilson either. I've already seen Wilson play three times this year, all losses. I think East Rock starts the game slow, but wins fairly big. I'll probably just watch Harrisonburg/RE Lee.
 

longtimerhsfan

All-Conference
Dec 11, 2006
5,582
1,585
0
Don't blame you. Of all the local games that one sounds the best and will have the most at stake.
 

longtimerhsfan

All-Conference
Dec 11, 2006
5,582
1,585
0
Trevor, you must have squealed with delight when the predictions came out in the Staunton paper today. As you recall, I personally am seeing the SD/Luray game as being more competitive and therefore harder to predict than your game with East Rock, but the paper sees it differently. They went unanimously with Draft to beat Luray but only went 5 out of 8 with East Rock over you guys. We will know soon enough.

The H'burg paper will have theirs in tomorrow, and my hunch is that both Luray and ER will get the lions' share of their picks. They have to keep the locals happy you know plus they don't like us much around here.
 

Trevor_Cash

Junior
Aug 30, 2006
1,347
210
0
I don't know what to believe because every week a different team shows up! Lol I'm expecting a close game but we shall see
 

Keith_Stone33

Junior
Sep 30, 2013
1,657
242
0
I really feel like the Lee/Harrisonburg game is going to be very beneficial for the Leemen, win or lose. Harrisonburg will likely play them a little differently than the other teams have in recent weeks, as they are totally content with LONG drives that eat up clock, and are a fairly scrappy bunch. Going to be a good test for the Leemen, hopefully it provides a playoff type atmosphere for them since valley district title is on the line
 

ShenValleyGuy

Redshirt
Sep 4, 2004
148
14
0
I'll be at the Lee/Harrisonburg game myself. I've not taken the time to read much about H'burg, I thought they had been a spread/passing type of team in the last couple of years?
 

Clarkefan

All-Conference
Oct 6, 2015
2,292
1,782
113
Coach Sarver is still at H'burg??!!! My God, that man taught my World History Class my Freshman year at Osbourn back in '79!!
 

Keith_Stone33

Junior
Sep 30, 2013
1,657
242
0
I'll be at the Lee/Harrisonburg game myself. I've not taken the time to read much about H'burg, I thought they had been a spread/passing type of team in the last couple of years?
Their QB can run and pass and their RB Medley is a pretty hard runner. They have shown the ability this year to put long drives together or score quick through the air or on the ground, as seen in the Waynesboro game.

The Harrisonburg coach is Chris Thurman by the way
 
  • Like
Reactions: ClarkeFan83

Trevor_Cash

Junior
Aug 30, 2006
1,347
210
0
Lee will definitely enjoy a huge ratings boost if they are able to win tonight.
Lee and Harrisonburg both are playing some great ball right now. Harrisonburg lost to a good Brookville team and then a bad Charlottesville team, but other than that they are pretty good. I think it will say A LOT about this Lee team and there chances in 2A depending on tonights game!

I'll be freezing to death in Elkton
 

longtimerhsfan

All-Conference
Dec 11, 2006
5,582
1,585
0
Trevor:

Toughen up! You won't "freeze" anyplace tonight. This is going to be great football weather. I will take it over all those monsoons we had to work around for three weeks in a row.
 

Keith_Stone33

Junior
Sep 30, 2013
1,657
242
0
Lee will definitely enjoy a huge ratings boost if they are able to win tonight.
Lee and Harrisonburg both are playing some great ball right now. Harrisonburg lost to a good Brookville team and then a bad Charlottesville team, but other than that they are pretty good. I think it will say A LOT about this Lee team and there chances in 2A depending on tonights game!

I'll be freezing to death in Elkton
Not to nitpick here, but I would hesitate calling Charlottesville bad. In their losses they have only lost by one score, with the exception of the Monticello game, and that one was like Luray/Wilson last year, as it was a one possession game until the black knights self destructed in the final 4 minutes. Now tonight, they will likely get blown out by WA, but WA is the top team of that district, the rest of the teams can beat each other any given night. Almost every week those games are like 50-50. Charlottesville isn't the most polished team but the tools are there, similar to a Waynesboro type team.
 

Trevor_Cash

Junior
Aug 30, 2006
1,347
210
0
I was just judging off the their record. Really don't know a lot about CVille!

And longtimer I was planning on going home from work to change before the game but unfortunately I'll be staying late and heading straight to the game. I'm hoping for one of those nights where it warms up a little when it gets dark lol I don't like the cold
 
Nov 21, 2008
1,116
291
0
The valley district as a whole is a trainwreck of below average teams..... compared to their history when they had HHS sending guys to D1 every other year... Broadway and TA were really really good.

There is a whole bunch of terrible between, Fort, Spotswood, Broadway,

They will be lucky to get one playoff win as a district
 

Keith_Stone33

Junior
Sep 30, 2013
1,657
242
0
The valley district as a whole is a trainwreck of below average teams..... compared to their history when they had HHS sending guys to D1 every other year... Broadway and TA were really really good.

There is a whole bunch of terrible between, Fort, Spotswood, Broadway,

They will be lucky to get one playoff win as a district
You are right on there. The team that surprised me the most this year was Broadway, as they have completely fallen apart. Waynesboro has been a surprise as well as I thought they would hit the ground running, but if you compare to last year, they are pretty much in the exact same position and have done basically the same thing thus far.
 

Trevor_Cash

Junior
Aug 30, 2006
1,347
210
0
Depending on tonight's result, I strongly think RE Lee could make a run to the final 8 if not deeper.
 
Nov 21, 2008
1,116
291
0
I don't see it with lee.... only decent win was vs. an low seeded 3A team (wboro)

They scores vs. Rockbridge and Wilson tell me they "might" get one win in 2A but not more than that. There aren't a whole lot of weak sisters in 2A east.

I see their first round game being competitive 1 TD either way then in the next round losing by 2 TD or more to one of the top 4 seeds.
 

Trevor_Cash

Junior
Aug 30, 2006
1,347
210
0
Lee didn't really start playing good ball until the last 2 games.
I'm judging them on the progress they seem to have made throughout the season. They are playing some very good, mistake free ball right now. All that program needs is discipline an it could be a 2A powerhouse.

They led Goochland I believe for a good portion of that game, and had a 1 point loss to a decent TA Squad. They were blown out week 1 by Riverheads but really who hasn't been?
This team really started putting its pieces together against Broadway and has played exceptionally well since then.

Right now Brunswick would travel to Lee opening round. Win that and face the winner of the Buffalo Gap/Wilson Memorial game. Win that and play winners between (Goochland, East Rock, King William, Strasburg)

Looks favorable for Lee, BUT assuming they beat HBurg, and a definite win over Fort, they could end up a 4 or 5 seed right?
 

Trevor_Cash

Junior
Aug 30, 2006
1,347
210
0
I actually think Brunswick is another sleeper team lol almost every teams they've face so far is 6-2. Although only one of their 3 wins came against a school with a winning record. But I wouldn't want them in the first round.

I think that would be a tougher draw for Lee than a 2nd round at Gap