Alabama 2025 win total: Greg McElroy predicts Crimson Tide over 9.5 wins

Alabama enters the 2025 season with a projected 9.5 win total, tied for the highest mark in the SEC alongside Georgia and Texas. Former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy, who won a National Championship with the Tide in 2010, is all in on his former program.

McElroy spent four seasons at Alabama before playing three years in the National Football League as a backup quarterback. He then retired and began a new career as a college football analyst for ESPN in 2014. During the May 19 edition of his “Always College Football Podcast“, the Los Angeles native endorsed the over on 9.5 wins for the Crimson Tide.

“Alabama’s schedule appears that it can get there,” McElroy said. “The home schedule is pretty manageable. You have Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma and Eastern Illinois. Those are games that can all be won by the Tide. The road schedule, however, is tricky. Missouri is a big question mark. South Carolina is a big question mark. And frankly, Auburn is a huge question mark as well.”

The Tide did not lose a single game at Bryant-Denny Stadium last year, while they dropped three of their five road games. Going undefeated at home would once again put Alabama at 7-0, having to win just three of its five road games to eclipse the 9.5 win total.

“If you look at ‘Bama trying to get to that 10-win plateau again, I like their chances,” McElroy exclaimed. “I really do, but it starts by being undefeated at home and also starts by making sure they play up to their potential on the road which they did not always do a year ago. I think if I had to pick, though, I think I’d take ‘Bama on the over this year.”

It was an up-and-down first season for new head coach Kalen DeBoer, who replaced legendary head coach Nick Saban last January following his retirement. The Tide opened the season with a 4-0 record (including a home victory over then No. 2 ranked Georgia) before going just 5-4 in their final nine games with disappointing losses to Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Michigan (ReliaQuest Bowl).

After losing 41 players over the offseason, DeBoer and Alabama brought in the No. 3-ranked high school recruiting class and the No. 62-ranked Transfer Portal class for the 2025 season. The Tide haven’t won less than 10 games in back-to-back seasons since 2006-07 (the season prior and the first season of the Nick Saban era.)