Billy Napier hot seat: Pete Thamel highlights biggest challenge of midseason firing

While last Saturday’s 29-21 home upset of then-No. 9 Texas was an encouraging sign for Florida, it likely won’t be enough — atleast in and of itself — to save Billy Napier‘s job for another year, according to ESPN insider Pete Thamel. The win snapped the Gators’ three-game losing streak that had Napier firmly on the proverbial hot seat for the second consecutive season.

Of course, the road doesn’t get any easier for Napier and Florida (2-3, 1-1 SEC), which hits the road to take on No. 5 Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at 7 pm ET Saturday inside an always-hostile Kyle Field in College Station. After that, the Gators still face upcoming games against No. 10 Georgia and at No. 4 Ole Miss before closing out the regular season with home games vs. No. 12 Tennessee and No. 25 Florida State.

Given that arduous road ahead, Thamel made it clear that Napier’s future in Gainesville is hardly secure, though last weekend’s win may have helped him avoid a midseason firing — for a multitude of reasons.

“Look, they’re 2-3 and 1-1 in the SEC. This obviously gives (Napier) some grace. Do I think, in my opinion, that Billy Napier is the head coach at Florida at the end of the season? No. Does this maybe change some of the in-season calculus? Perhaps,” Thamel said on Monday’s College GameDay Podcast. “It’s also a complicated fire, because he’s also the play-caller. So you have to move somebody to head coach, and then you have to move an inexperienced (assistant) to play-caller. … That probably doesn’t give you a better chance to win. And the one survival trait that Billy Napier has is he can get a struggling team to buy in and play hard. Whatever that skill is, he should bottle it and sell it, because it would be amazing.

“They obviously haven’t had the consistency. It’s pretty clear (Napier) erred by not bringing somebody in to call the plays, give him some cushion and let him operate as the full-on head coach. So, I don’t think this changes a lot in his macro, but maybe in the micro. … I said on GameDay, like (the Texas game) wasn’t like ‘win-or-else,’ but it was feeling different than last season that an earlier midseason firing could come. And the fate still feels inevitable, but give him credit. … There’s hope.”

Contrary to Thamel’s suggestion otherwise, it would appear the one thing saving Napier from an unceremonious midseason firing is the fact that he held onto his play-calling duties and didn’t add an offensive coordinator this past offseason. Former Arkansas coach Sam Pittman was let go Sept. 28 following a 2-3 start to the season because the Razorbacks administration felt comfortable enough with second-year OC and former head coach Bobby Petrino taking over the role on an interim basis.

Even with the win over Texas, Napier is 21-22 overall and 11-15 in SEC play in four seasons as the Gators’ head coach, including rallying from a 4-5 start to finish 8-5 in 2024.