Examining why Oklahoma's 7.5 over-under 2024 win total is too low

With kickoff still half a year away, the lines in Vegas regarding the next season in college football have plenty to still factor in. However, there’s one win total in the Southeastern Conference that has caught several eyes, including On3’s Andy Staples since he can’t understand why it’s so low.

During a mailbag question on his show on Thursday, Staples discussed the 7.5 win total, which originally opened at 6.5, for Oklahoma in 2024. He doesn’t see how the Sooners would be trending toward being a team that would be barely scratching bowl eligibility. While he understand that the move to the SEC is having an impact, he doesn’t think, based on direction or history, that their total should be so small.

“I was very confused by this win total. I was very confused that it was only 7.5 and that it was lower than that to start with,” said Staples. “This team beat Texas last year. They should be as good or better, probably, than the team that beat Texas last year. I just don’t see it.”

“Now, they did lose to Kansas and you say they have the capability of losing to anybody in the SEC, maybe. But Oklahoma is never bad,” Staples said. “If you look in the history of Oklahoma? Really, the mid to late 90s are the only sustained period of mediocrity. They just don’t fall into that very often. They stay good. You can say that you don’t trust Brent Venables but it hasn’t really mattered who coached them either. I think Oklahoma is going to be better than the folks in Vegas think Oklahoma is going to be.”

As part of the question, Staples had to ponder how much the quarterback shift had to do with the line. After two seasons with Dillon Gabriel, Jackson Arnold will now be the presumed starter in Norman as a sophomore.

Staples isn’t sure what kind of effect that that could have had on the win total. That doesn’t mean it’s not the right choice by the staff, though, with there being plenty of promise in regards to Arnold.

“We would have to bring in the line-makers to tell us if they think that the trade of Dillon Gabriel for Jackson Arnold made them set Oklahoma’s win total so low,” said Staples. “I don’t think it’s that big of a difference between these two. I do think Jackson Arnold has the higher ceiling. You probably are going to get fairly similar results one way or the other. Like, if you kept Dillon Gabriel there? You probably, this year, would have gotten fairly similar results.”

“I don’t think that the Dillon Gabriel-Jackson Arnold thing matters in terms of one would be significantly better than the other. Jackson Arnold probably has the higher ceiling. I don’t think that they’re sacrificing wins to start Jackson Arnold. I do think that they looked at the situation. They have these two quarterbacks, both of them are probably capable of starting. They said that we’ll take the guy who we recruited out of high school, who helped recruit a lot of these younger players, who has, potentially, the higher ceiling, and who has more eligibility remaining,” Staples explained. “If Jackson Arnold lives up this potential? They should win as much, or more, than they would have with Dillon Gabriel starting. I do think it’s the coaching staff’s confidence in Jackson Arnold that led them to make this decision.”

Following a 6-7 start to Venables’ tenure, Oklahoma returned to their usual form at 10-3 in 2023. It was the 19th time in the 24 seasons since 2000 that the program met or exceeded double-digit wins, which further underlines the context of how low 7.5 is for them.

Moving to a new conference with a young quarterback might fairly keep Oklahoma from reaching that 10-win mark again. With that said, their line being a whole 2.5 wins less than that is just not a smart bet according to Staples.

“Assuming Oklahoma is going to get trounced in the SEC, I feel like, is a bad assumption. This is not a program that gets trounced. It’s not a program that’s mediocre. They’re just not like that historically,” Staples said. “If you say that you’re not confident in Brent Venables? Okay, I will accept that. But I just feel like this program has earned the benefit of the doubt.”

“Now, if they go in the SEC and it’s a terrible year? I’ll be wrong and I’ll eat those words. But I don’t think that’s going to happen,” said Staples. “I think Oklahoma is going to be a good to very good SEC program in the very near future because they’ve been a good to very good program wherever they’ve been. The Big 8, the Big 12? Doesn’t matter. I think that they’re going to be all right.”