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NickRoushFeb 11, 7:43 PM

Bart Torvik Hates Kentucky

Each week, I post the point spreads for the upcoming basketball games. In the posts, I always include the projected final scores from the power ratings. It's a fun comparison tool. That means I know that Torvik isn't as big a fan of Kentucky as KenPom, but I didn't realize just how large the discrepancy is. UK Rating KenPom: 28th overall, 40 offense, 33 defense Bart Torvik: 40th Overall, 46 offense, 47 defense Despite the discrepancy, Torvik has a cool tool where you can narrow the range of the dates. I know Kentucky's early numbers were bad, but surely they're better since this streak of 8 wins in 9 games over the last month? Wrong. UK in Torvik since Jan. 10 39th overall, 37 offense, 70 defense I will not pretend to know the method behind all of this madness. The margin of victory and the comeback performances probably aren't helping their possession-by-possession rating, but it's still baffling to see just how much this advanced statistical tool hates Kentucky compared to the others.
30 Replies
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Skippy03

Feb 11, 7:43 PM

Analytically this team is not great at all. But they have learned how to win games late. Regression to the mean is the concern
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pete peterson

Feb 11, 7:44 PM

Until we start beating big teams or beating the lower teams by larger margins, analytics are going to hate us. Win vs Florida would catapult us up all of the rankings
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EKUcolonel

Feb 11, 7:49 PM

NickRoush said:
Each week, I post the point spreads for the upcoming basketball games. In the posts, I always include the projected final scores from the power ratings. It's a fun comparison tool. That means I know that Torvik isn't as big a fan of Kentucky as KenPom, but I didn't realize just how large the discrepancy is. UK Rating KenPom: 28th overall, 40 offense, 33 defense Bart Torvik: 40th Overall, 46 offense, 47 defense Despite the discrepancy, Torvik has a cool tool where you can narrow the range of the dates. I know Kentucky's early numbers were bad, but surely they're better since this streak of 8 wins in 9 games over the last month? Wrong. UK in Torvik since Jan. 10 39th overall, 37 offense, 70 defense I will not pretend to know the method behind all of this madness. The margin of victory and the comeback performances probably aren't helping their possession-by-possession rating, but it's still baffling to see just how much this advanced statistical tool hates Kentucky compared to the others.
Hot take. Its probably accurate. I think, with our injuries considered, we are punching above our weight class currently. Not to say we aren't as good as some of the teams we've beaten, but on paper, we shouldn't be winning IMO. Just makes this team more likable (if you ignore some of the early season frustrations), they are fighting and showing heart now.
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J_Turn4

Feb 11, 7:52 PM

The Vandy game hurts. That was a truly horrific performance. If you filter to just Jan 31 to now, Kentucky is 16th. That's a small sample size but probably more indicative of what they've been over this stretch. Here's the biggest reason why it is so different from KenPom: Torvik now factors in average lead/deficit which obviously hurts a team like Kentucky significantly.
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FoxMonkBAM!

Feb 11, 7:52 PM

70th on defense but allowing the 3rd fewest PPG in conference play, hmm
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DaDirtyLeb69

Feb 11, 7:52 PM

Skippy03 said:
Analytically this team is not great at all. But they have learned how to win games late. Regression to the mean is the concern
Agree. The reality is Kentucky is a “B” level team. Still a good team that can beat teams, but a championship is a little above what they are capable of.
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forloveofthegame

Feb 11, 7:52 PM

I think KenPom is a little more reliable but we are what the numbers say we are, with a few anomalies thrown in. @BrandonRamsey has been saying we’re top 20-30ish since January 3. Which is to say, we’re, you know…pretty good? Solid? Somewhere in that range of verbiage. Until we throw up some impressive 40 minute showing against a really good team, that’s what we are. And that’s fine for now. It won’t be forever, but it is for now.
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BP2214

Feb 11, 7:53 PM

FoxMonkBAM! said:
70th on defense but allowing the 3rd fewest PPG in conference play, hmm
Yeah the math ain’t mathing 😂😂
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DaDirtyLeb69

Feb 11, 7:55 PM

FoxMonkBAM! said:
70th on defense but allowing the 3rd fewest PPG in conference play, hmm
Liberal woke math lol(just kidding by the way)
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J_Turn4

Feb 11, 8:02 PM

J_Turn4 said:
The Vandy game hurts. That was a truly horrific performance. If you filter to just Jan 31 to now, Kentucky is 16th. That's a small sample size but probably more indicative of what they've been over this stretch. Here's the biggest reason why it is so different from KenPom: Torvik now factors in average lead/deficit which obviously hurts a team like Kentucky significantly.
Here's also another interesting thing to keep an eye on: Torvik counts each game younger than 40 days at 100%, but then he reduces the value of each game older than 40 days by 1% per day until the game is 80 days old then it remains at only counting 60%. TLDR, the games against UNC, Gonzaga, Bama, and Mizzou will keep counting less and less over the next couple weeks. (Yes, I read the Torvik FAQ page)
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FinnaGoHAM

Feb 11, 8:06 PM

Curious, where's Miami (OH) on both of them?
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CFE_

Feb 11, 8:07 PM

Well, I don't trust anyone named Bart. So there's that.
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ZackGeoghegan

Feb 11, 8:10 PM

FinnaGoHAM said:
Curious, where's Miami (OH) on both of them?
83rd in KenPom, 79th in BartTorvik
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ZackGeoghegan

Feb 11, 8:11 PM

CFE_ said:
Well, I don't trust anyone named Bart. So there's that.
BartTorvik adjusting his metrics:
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Dizzle79

Feb 11, 8:30 PM

J_Turn4 said:
The Vandy game hurts. That was a truly horrific performance. If you filter to just Jan 31 to now, Kentucky is 16th. That's a small sample size but probably more indicative of what they've been over this stretch. Here's the biggest reason why it is so different from KenPom: Torvik now factors in average lead/deficit which obviously hurts a team like Kentucky significantly.
That’s a bullshit way for him to game his metrics. Average lead/deficit does not and should not matter.
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CFE_

Feb 11, 8:33 PM

Dizzle79 said:
That’s a ******** way for him to game his metrics. Average lead/deficit does not and should not matter.
assuming it's for consistency of play metrics?
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TylerThompson

Feb 11, 8:38 PM

BartTorvik gives Kentucky just a 10% chance of winning Saturday at Florida. I'm worried about the Cats' chances due to frontcourt matchups and environment, but there's more than a 10% chance they pull off the upset.
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Calrizzien

Feb 11, 8:43 PM

TylerThompson said:
BartTorvik gives Kentucky just a 10% chance of winning Saturday at Florida. I'm worried about the Cats' chances due to frontcourt matchups and environment, but there's more than a 10% chance they pull off the upset.
The frontcourt matchups are an issue for us, but the backcourt matchups are an issue for them. I don't think they have an answer for Oweh.
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TylerThompson

Feb 11, 9:36 PM

If you want to go further into the analytics, check out Evan Miya's "resume quality." Kentucky is almost smack dab in the middle.
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jsmith4415

Feb 11, 9:47 PM

Guys when you lose by 35 in one game and 25 in another your analytics are going to be off. Especially since 1/10, that loss to Vanderbilt really affects the predictive analytics. They also haven’t beat anyone noteworthy by +10 to help raise KenPom, Torvik, and the NET. If they beat Florida by say 8-10 points Saturday their predictive analytics will jump dramatically (6-7 spots) and set up their analytics to continue to climb so long they don’t have a bad loss or a blow out loss. 19-20 UK never got their analytics right primarily because they lost to Evansville, who turned out to be one of the worst teams in CBB. That really affected their numbers. Yet they were one of the best teams in the country and had a shot to make a run in the NCAAT.
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andrewdyk

Feb 11, 10:07 PM

Calrizzien said:
The frontcourt matchups are an issue for us, but the backcourt matchups are an issue for them. I don't think they have an answer for Oweh.
I think it’s going to come down to 3pt shooting. In all of those losses they have shot <30% from 3. In 4 of those games they have gone 7-27. If they shoot sub 30% and we make 10, I think we can win.
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BrandonRamsey

Feb 11, 10:59 PM

By far the weirdest thing with the Torvik rankings are how different they are from the rest. When you look at AP/Coaches Poll, KenPom, Evan Miya, and the NET (all of the rankings I use along with Torvik) he stands alone on the “negative” side. As I’ve mentioned in other posts though the “consistency” doesn’t surprise me as much. Things weren’t as bad as they seemed a month or so ago…there for while the results have improved and thereby our spirits have improved…the computers don’t have souls and haven’t really changed their tune (which makes me wonder if I just don’t have a soul either LOL!
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albundy

Feb 11, 11:11 PM

10% chance is correct. Florida is a matchup nightmare for UK
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akaukswoosh

Feb 11, 11:19 PM

NickRoush said:
Each week, I post the point spreads for the upcoming basketball games. In the posts, I always include the projected final scores from the power ratings. It's a fun comparison tool. That means I know that Torvik isn't as big a fan of Kentucky as KenPom, but I didn't realize just how large the discrepancy is. UK Rating KenPom: 28th overall, 40 offense, 33 defense Bart Torvik: 40th Overall, 46 offense, 47 defense Despite the discrepancy, Torvik has a cool tool where you can narrow the range of the dates. I know Kentucky's early numbers were bad, but surely they're better since this streak of 8 wins in 9 games over the last month? Wrong. UK in Torvik since Jan. 10 39th overall, 37 offense, 70 defense I will not pretend to know the method behind all of this madness. The margin of victory and the comeback performances probably aren't helping their possession-by-possession rating, but it's still baffling to see just how much this advanced statistical tool hates Kentucky compared to the others.
Never have been a fan of Torvik.

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