2023 SEC Predictions: Order of finish by Division, SEC Championship Game
The SEC is college football’s most competitive conference, which is why it’s also difficult to predict precisely how teams will finish each fall.
Georgia has won back-to-back national championships and the Bulldogs weren’t the media’s selection to win the league in either year. That will (very likely) change this week in Nashville, but in advance of 2023 SEC Media Days, here is my predicted order of finish for the conference.
Remember, this is the final year of divisions for the SEC, so these sorts of predictions will become even more muddled a year from now. But let’s put pen to paper. Or keys to a word doc. Whatever. Here’s my SEC predictions that surely won’t be thrown back in my face when they are predictably wrong. Let’s dive in.
SEC East
Outside of a couple of hinky votes in Nashville, the Bulldogs should be the unanimous pick to win the East for the third straight season. Georgia has a cakewalk to Atlanta, with a road game at Tennessee in November its biggest challenge.
The more interesting question is who will be the No. 2 team in the East in 2023? Last year, I hit on Tennessee having a resurgent season, and I’m doubling down on the Vols again this fall. I don’t foresee the Vols being in the mix for a College Football Playoff (still skeptical about a major defensive leap), but even with the enigma that is Joe Milton at QB, they’re a safer bet to win 9ish games over Kentucky or South Carolina.
I like what the Wildcats have done this offseason in the transfer portal, and Devin Leary has the upside to be one of the best QBs in the league if healthy. The return of Liam Coen at OC should be a boon of the Wildcats’ offense, too. I give them the slight edge over the Gamecocks — even though they travel to Columbia in November.
South Carolina is chalked with optimism, but the ‘Cocks have real OL concerns and a schedule that has them exiting September (three Top 25 games, none at home) having to fight to just make a bowl game.
To round out the East, I think Florida is going to be a little bit better than some believe, with Billy Napier leaning on a talented two-headed tandem at tailback. The Gators should be better defensively, too. I’m not a Graham Mertz believer, but Missouri has its own QB question marks. The Tigers were quietly one of the better defenses in the league in 2022, and they return eight starters off that unit. If Eli Drinkwitz can settle on a QB and generate a more explosive passing attack, Mizzou could be the team that blows up these predictions and finishes No. 4 in the East.
Vanderbilt continues to trend in the right direction under Clark Lea, but this remains a slow-burn rebuild. The Commodores can compete for a bowl game, but they need to pile up some wins in the first month because the schedule gets really dicey come mid-October (Georgia and then at Ole Miss, at South Carolina, at Tennessee).
SEC West
It’s me. Hi. I’m one of the problems. It’s me. I am one of the dummies shortchanging Alabama this offseason and have the Tigers winning the SEC West for the second straight autumn.
It’s probably a stupid pick. Alabama hasn’t missed consecutive SEC Championship Games in 13 years. The internet is ripe will Old Takes Exposed tweets calling out idiots who dared to bet against Nick Saban. Line me up, though.
This is not a ‘dynasty is dead’ thing. Saban has proven on the recruiting trail that his fastball remains as strong as ever. But the Tide simply have more uncertainties than the Tigers in 2023 — the new OC-QB pairing is obviously chief among them.
I think the Tide will be much better at receiver and OL this fall, but I know LSU will be good to elite at both spots already. Defensively, Alabama gets the slid nod as an overall unit (the secondary is stacked), but LSU could have the two best individual players in the conference by season’s end in tackle Maason Smith and linebacker Harold Perkins Jr.
Much like the SEC East, after the top two teams in the division, it’s a pick-your-favorite-flavor-of-ice-cream type deal for the rest of the SEC West.
Arkansas has a strong case to be the No. 3 team with KJ Jefferson back at QB and a deeper front-seven, but Texas A&M has the potential and talent to beat anyone on its schedule in 2023. Despite a ton of transfers this offseason, the majority of those Top 100 signees the Aggies landed in their historic 2022 recruiting class remain in College Station. They’re a year older, and with Bobby Petrino and Jim Chaney now on staff, the offense has better coaching, too. The Petrino-Fisher marriage remains a combustible situation, but after years of a stagnating offense, maybe the Aggies need a little fire.
Ole Miss might actually be better than it was in 2022 (8-5), but the record might the same or worse with a more difficult schedule (at Georgia in November). The Rebels stand to start 10-11 seniors on defense, with new DC Pete Goulding inheriting a veteran-laded unit. Quinshon Judkins is the best tailback in the conference and former UTSA wideout Zakhari Franklin was a huge addition during the second transfer portal window.
Auburn will show immediate improvement under Hugh Freeze, and although Payton Throne doesn’t elicit a ton of excitement at QB, the sheer ability to threaten teams through the air should open up even more room for a great set of tailbacks. The Tigers’ OL has been overhauled and the defense should be serviceable to solid. They’re a fringe bowl team.
As for Mississippi State, this is a case where someone has to finish last. The Bulldogs are probably a Top 40ish team with one of the most experienced QBs in the country in Will Rogers, but they look ripe for regression with a first-year head coach in former DC-turned incumbent Zach Arnett. They’re pivoting away from Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense, and while the defense brings back the bulk of a good front-seven (especially at linebacker), the secondary is essentially brand new aside from senior Decamerion Richardson.
SEC Championship
Georgia over LSU