2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology changes after chaotic, upset-filled weekend

by: James Fletcher III10 hours agojdfletch3

Plenty upsets have shifted bracketology from top to bottom as the regular season continues to wind down and March finally arrives. With just one week left for high-major conferences and a multitude of mid-major conference tournaments ready to tip off, bids are close to locking in.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
Last four byes: UCF, SMU, Texas A&M, Santa Clara
Last four in: Ohio State, Indiana, Auburn, New Mexico
First four out: TCU, VCU, SDSU, Cincinnati

First Four (Dayton)

16 LIU (NEC) vs. 16 UMBC (AEC)
16 Howard (MEAC) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 New Mexico
11 Indiana vs. 11 Auburn

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Howard/Bethune Cookman
8 Iowa vs. 9 Georgia
Philadelphia
5 St. John’s vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Alabama vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Oklahoma City
6 Louisville vs. 11 Ohio State/New Mexico
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 UCF
2 Illinois vs. 15 Central Arkansas (ASUN)

1-seed Duke

Jon Scheyer, Duke — © Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after picking up a win over Virginia. The Blue Devils look to close the regular season strong, with NC State next up on the schedule.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois HC Brad Underwood — Matt Krohn | USA TODAY Sports

Illinois returns to the 2-seed line as the margins between the final spot and the 3-seed contenders continues to shrink. The Fighting Illini are coming off a loss against Michigan and will face Oregon next.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn vs. 16 LIU/UMBC
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 NC State
Portland
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Kansas vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Buffalo
6 BYU vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Michigan State vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
Tampa
7 St. Louis (A10) vs. 10 SMU
2 Florida vs. 15 Merrimack (MAAC)

1-seed UConn

UConn basketball coach Dan Hurley watches from the sideline as they take on the Marquette Golden Eagles at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. — © David Butler II-Imagn Images

UConn continues to hold onto the final 1-seed spot as other teams continue to chase them down, even after beating Seton Hall. The Huskies will face Marquette in their final regular season game.

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2-seed Florida

Feb 14, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden gestures with a Gator Chomp against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images — Feb 14, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden gestures with a Gator Chomp against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Florida continues to make a leap up the board in bracketology, with a decisive win over Arkansas this weekend. The Gators are still within range of the 1-seed line as they look ahead at Mississippi State on the schedule.

Midwest (Chicago)

Philadelphia
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Wright State (Horizon)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Texas
Tampa
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Virginia vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Greenville
6 St. Mary’s vs. 11 Texas A&M
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Navy (Patriot)
Oklahoma City
7 Villanova vs. 10 UCLA
2 Houston vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan Wolverines basketball head coach Dusty May led his team to a win over Oregon. (Photo by Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images) — (Photo by Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images)

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after beating Illinois. The Wolverines can continue to chase down the top spot when they face Iowa in their next matchup.

2-seed Houston

Houston HC Kelvin Sampson — (Troy Taormina | Imagn Images)

Houston sits in a large debate over the final 2-seed spot, but is able to hold on after a big win over Colorado during the weekend slate. The Cougars will face Baylor next as they look to solidify this spot.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Tennessee State (OVC)
8 Miami vs. 9 Missouri
Portland
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
4 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
San Diego
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Indiana/Auburn
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Hawaii (Big West)
St. Louis
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Purdue vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona HC Tommy Lloyd — (Mark J. Rebilas | Imagn Images)

Arizona remains in the mix with Duke and Michigan to land the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology, beating Kansas over the weekend. The Wildcats will face Iowa State next, with another chance to add to the resume.

2-seed Purdue

Matt Painter, Purdue – © Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Purdue is coming off a loss against Michigan State which cost them on the overall seed-line but keeps them in the 2-seed range. They will face Ohio State next, then Northwestern before the next bracketology update.