2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections after top-seed upsets

More top-seeded showdowns and an upset-filled midweek slate have set up the latest movement across bracketology, creating a new look at the NCAA Tournament field. Meanwhile, the bubble conversation remains interesting to follow as the teams fail to separate from each other across multiple weeks.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the top teams dominate headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, UConn
Last four byes: St. Mary’s, Georgia, UCLA, Miami
Last four in: USC, Texas, New Mexico, Ohio State
First four out: SDSU, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, California

First Four (Dayton)

16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 NCCU (MEAC)
16 Merrimack (MAAC) vs. 16 UMBC (AEC)
11 USC vs. 11 Texas
11 New Mexico vs. 11 Ohio State

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Merrimack/UMBC
8 Texas A&M (SEC) vs. 9 SMU
Buffalo
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Miami (OH) (MAC)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Greenville
6 Louisville vs. 11 New Mexico/Ohio State
3 Vanderbilt vs. 14 Wright State (Horizon)
Philadelphia
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Miami
2 Nebraska vs. 15 Navy (Patriot)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona is one of many teams across college basketball that got the midweek off, setting it up for a weekend matchup against Oklahoma State. The Wildcats retain the No. 1 overall seed, but have Michigan closely behind after their big week of results.

2-seed Nebraska

Nebraska went from undefeated to a two-loss team quickly, falling against Michigan and Illinois. The Cornhuskers have dropped into a large conversation of teams worthy of the final 2-seed spot, making the weekend matchup with Rutgers important.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Harvard (Ivy)
8 Auburn vs. 9 Indiana
Portland
5 BYU vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
4 Gonzaga vs. 13 North Dakota State (Summit)
Philadelphia
6 Arkansas vs. 11 Santa Clara (WCC)
3 Purdue vs. 14 Portland State (Big Sky)
Oklahoma City
7 Clemson vs. 10 St. Mary’s
2 Iowa State vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed UConn

UConn retains its final spot on the 1-seed line after defeating Xavier in the midweek schedule, holding off the chasing pack of 2-seed teams on thin margins. The Big East simply does not provide the same number of resume-building opportunities this season, making Friday’s game against St. John’s pivotal.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State returns to the 2-seed line after stringing together another strong run through Big 12 play, sorting its way back up the board as others around take losses. The Cyclones come off a win against Kansas State and have the week to prepare for Baylor.

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 UCF
Tampa
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Virginia vs. 13 Troy (SBC)
Tampa
6 Iowa vs. 11 Tulsa (American)
3 Florida vs. 14 Winthrop (Big South)
Oklahoma City
7 NC State vs. 10 UCLA
2 Houston vs. 15 Austin Peay (ASUN)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan continues to chase down Arizona, looking to reclaim the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after a long run atop the NCAA Tournament projections this season. The Wolverines have Penn State and Ohio State on the schedule over the coming days.

2-seed Houston

Houston stands on the 2-seed line coming off a midweek win over UCF, which helped it in the metrics and the Big 12 standings. The Cougars are solidly on this line, with more upward potential ahead against BYU.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/NCCU
8 Villanova vs. 9 Wisconsin
Portland
5 Alabama vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
San Diego
6 St. Louis (A10) vs. 11 USC/Texas
3 Kansas vs. 14 UC Irvine (Big West)
St. Louis
7 North Carolina vs. 10 Georgia
2 Illinois vs. 15 UT Martin (OVC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence on the 1-seed line, keeping pace with Arizona and Michigan in the metrics throughout the early stages of the conference slate, most recently beating Boston College. The Blue Devils now prepare for a rivalry showdown against North Carolina.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois has risen up the board of 2-seed contenders with a strong case to jump onto the 1-seed line, beating Nebraska and Northwestern in recent days. The Fighting Illini have a weekend matchup with Michigan State to further prove themselves as one of college basketball’s best.