2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections following multiple upsets

As upsets continue to shift the Bracketology picture, the top seeds and the bubble both see the fallout with changes. These early results have led to an interesting shift and left room for teams to improve their standing.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the conference schedule dominates headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Arizona, Duke, UConn
Last four byes: NC State, Texas A&M, UCLA, Indiana
Last four in: New Mexico, USC, Seton Hall, Santa Clara
First four out: SDSU, Texas, Virginia Tech, LSU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 LIU (NEC) vs. 16 Vermont (AEC)
11 New Mexico vs. 11 Seton Hall
11 USC vs. 11 Santa Clara

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Southern/Howard
8 SMU vs. 9 Utah State (MWC)
San Diego
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Tulsa (American)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Buffalo
6 Georgia vs. 11 New Mexico/Seton Hall
3 Illinois vs. 14 Hofstra (CAA)
Portland
7 Iowa vs. 10 NC State
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Montana State (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan has established itself as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology and proved how wide the non-conference gap it built up was after suffering a loss. The Wolverines remain in this spot for now, but are now very close to Arizona across the board.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga remains a steady force and holds onto its 2-seed spot again by dominating the WCC as other teams struggle to string together wins against tougher competition. The schedule does ramp up, with a matchup against St. Mary’s on the horizon.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 LIU/Vermont
8 Auburn vs. 9 Ohio State
Greenville
5 Kansas vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Virginia vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Philadelphia
6 Clemson vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Michigan State vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Oklahoma City
7 Tennessee vs. 10 UCLA
2 Houston vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed UConn

UConn continues to establish itself as one of the top teams in college basketball, holding onto a 1-seed spot in the latest Bracketology after a brief period where it could have dropped a line to Purdue. Now, the Huskies can reassert themselves against Villanova.

2-seed Houston

Houston continues to climb back up the Bracketology board with strong Big 12 performances, which have paired well with losses suffered by the teams above. The Cougars have plenty of runway to reach the 1-seed line, starting against Texas Tech.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)
8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 St. Mary’s
Tampa
5 Louisville vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Florida vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Portland
6 Villanova vs. 11 Indiana
3 BYU vs. 14 St. Thomas (Summit)
Oklahoma City
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Miami
2 Nebraska vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona remains one of the last undefeated teams in the country, making a strong case to jump from the No. 2 overall seed in Bracketology to the top spot with wins against UCF and Cincinnati this week. The Wildcats can keep the win streak going as they close the gap to Michigan.

2-seed Nebraska

After floating on the border of the 2-seed line for weeks, Nebraska finally capitalizes on the losses of teams above them to jump up the Bracketology board. Now, the undefeated Cornhuskers can set their sights on the 1-seed line, which is not far away.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 UCF
Tampa
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Philadelphia
6 Arkansas vs. 11 USC/Santa Clara
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
St. Louis
7 North Carolina vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Purdue vs. 15 Marist (MAAC)

1-seed Duke

Duke holds steady on the 1-seed line following a road win against Stanford, keeping it in prime position to capitalize as teams around them drop games. Next on the schedule is a home game against Wake Forest.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue had a chance to jump onto the 1-seed line again this week, but squandered the opportunity with a road loss against UCLA. Now, the Boilermakers are back in the 2-seed mix of Bracketology with a tougher hill to climb.