
<p>As upsets continue to shift the Bracketology picture, the top seeds and the bubble both see the fallout with changes. These early results have led to an interesting shift and left room for teams to improve their standing.</p>



<p>The NCAA uses the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings">NET Rankings</a> – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket. </p>



<p>As the conference schedule dominates headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from <a href="https://www.on3.com/">On3</a>.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bracketology">Bracketology</h2>



<p><strong>Projected 1-line:</strong> Michigan, Arizona, Duke, UConn<br><strong>Last four byes:</strong> NC State, Texas A&M, UCLA, Indiana<br><strong>Last four in:</strong> New Mexico, USC, Seton Hall, Santa Clara<br><strong>First four out:</strong> SDSU, Texas, Virginia Tech, LSU</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">First Four (Dayton)</h2>



<p>16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)<br>16 LIU (NEC) vs. 16 Vermont (AEC)<br>11 New Mexico vs. 11 Seton Hall<br>11 USC vs. 11 Santa Clara</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-midwest-chicago">Midwest (Chicago)</h2>



<p><strong>St. Louis</strong><br>1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Southern/Howard<br>8 SMU vs. 9 Utah State (MWC)<br><strong>San Diego</strong><br>5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Tulsa (American)<br>4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)<br><strong>Buffalo</strong><br>6 Georgia vs. 11 New Mexico/Seton Hall<br>3 Illinois vs. 14 Hofstra (CAA)<br><strong>Portland</strong><br>7 Iowa vs. 10 NC State<br>2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Montana State (Big Sky)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-michigan">1-seed Michigan</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-1024x538.jpg" alt="Dusty May, Michigan" class="wp-image-3201579" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dusty May, Michigan  – © Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>Michigan has established itself as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology and proved how wide the non-conference gap it built up was after suffering a loss. The Wolverines remain in this spot for now, but are now very close to Arizona across the board.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-gonzaga">2-seed Gonzaga</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-1024x538.jpg" alt="Nov 4, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few selects players to send in against the Baylor Bears in the second half at Spokane Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images" class="wp-image-2950037" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nov 4, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few selects players to send in against the Baylor Bears in the second half at Spokane Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>Gonzaga remains a steady force and holds onto its 2-seed spot again by dominating the WCC as other teams struggle to string together wins against tougher competition. The schedule does ramp up, with a matchup against St. Mary’s on the horizon.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-houston">South (Houston)</h2>



<p><strong>Buffalo</strong><br>1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 LIU/Vermont<br>8 Auburn vs. 9 Ohio State<br><strong>Greenville</strong><br>5 Kansas vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)<br>4 Virginia vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)<br><strong>Philadelphia</strong><br>6 Clemson vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)<br>3 Michigan State vs. 14 Troy (SBC)<br><strong>Oklahoma City</strong><br>7 Tennessee vs. 10 UCLA<br>2 Houston vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-uconn">1-seed UConn</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-1024x538.jpg" alt="UConn HC Dan Hurley during New Haven game 2025" class="wp-image-3897864" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-768x404.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-1536x808.jpg 1536w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-2048x1077.jpg 2048w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-50x26.jpg 50w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nov 3, 2025; Storrs, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley watches from the sideline as they take on the New Haven Chargers at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>UConn continues to establish itself as one of the top teams in college basketball, holding onto a 1-seed spot in the latest Bracketology after a brief period where it could have dropped a line to Purdue. Now, the Huskies can reassert themselves against Villanova.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-houston">2-seed Houston</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-1024x538.jpeg" alt="Kelvin Sampson, Houston Basketball | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images" class="wp-image-3219248" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-1024x538.jpeg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-300x158.jpeg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-768x403.jpeg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-1536x806.jpeg 1536w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-2048x1075.jpeg 2048w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-50x26.jpeg 50w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Robert Goddin-Imagn Images) Mar 28, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson in the first half during a Midwest Regional semifinal of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.</figcaption></figure>



<p>Houston continues to climb back up the Bracketology board with strong Big 12 performances, which have paired well with losses suffered by the teams above. The Cougars have plenty of runway to reach the 1-seed line, starting against Texas Tech.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-west-san-jose">West (San Jose)</h2>



<p><strong>San Diego</strong><br>1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)<br>8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 St. Mary’s<br><strong>Tampa</strong><br>5 Louisville vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)<br>4 Florida vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)<br><strong>Portland</strong><br>6 Villanova vs. 11 Indiana<br>3 BYU vs. 14 St. Thomas (Summit)<br><strong>Oklahoma City</strong><br>7 Kentucky vs. 10 Miami<br>2 Nebraska vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-arizona">1-seed Arizona</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-1024x538.jpg" alt="Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd" class="wp-image-2117267" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">© Rob Kinnan | USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>



<p>Arizona remains one of the last undefeated teams in the country, making a strong case to jump from the No. 2 overall seed in Bracketology to the top spot with wins against UCF and Cincinnati this week. The Wildcats can keep the win streak going as they close the gap to Michigan.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-nebraska">2-seed Nebraska</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2026/01/11151251/USATSI_27975723-1024x538.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-4141959" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2026/01/11151251/USATSI_27975723-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2026/01/11151251/USATSI_27975723-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2026/01/11151251/USATSI_27975723-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2026/01/11151251/USATSI_27975723-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2026/01/11151251/USATSI_27975723.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg claps his hands against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>After floating on the border of the 2-seed line for weeks, Nebraska finally capitalizes on the losses of teams above them to jump up the Bracketology board. Now, the undefeated Cornhuskers can set their sights on the 1-seed line, which is not far away.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-east-washington">East (Washington)</h2>



<p><strong>Greenville</strong><br>1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)<br>8 Wisconsin vs. 9 UCF<br><strong>Tampa<br></strong>5 St. John’s vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)<br>4 Alabama vs. 13 High Point (Big South)<br><strong>Philadelphia</strong><br>6 Arkansas vs. 11 USC/Santa Clara<br>3 Iowa State vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)<br><strong>St. Louis<br></strong>7 North Carolina vs. 10 Texas A&M<br>2 Purdue vs. 15 Marist (MAAC)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-duke">1-seed Duke</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-1024x538.jpg" alt="duke-head-basketball-coach-jon-scheyer-explains-how-blue-devils-doing-things-differently-summer" class="wp-image-2489236" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>



<p>Duke holds steady on the 1-seed line following a road win against Stanford, keeping it in prime position to capitalize as teams around them drop games. Next on the schedule is a home game against Wake Forest.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-purdue">2-seed Purdue</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/02/17142001/Screenshot-2025-02-17-at-3.19.01%E2%80%AFPM-1024x580.png" alt="Purdue coach Matt Painter" class="wp-image-3120549"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Purdue coach Matt Painter (Chad Krockover)</figcaption></figure>



<p>Purdue had a chance to jump onto the 1-seed line again this week, but squandered the opportunity with a road loss against UCLA. Now, the Boilermakers are back in the 2-seed mix of Bracketology with a tougher hill to climb.</p>


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2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections following multiple upsets

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