2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections shake up bubble picture

A weekend slate filled with swing games for bubble teams, more top-seeded losses, and a large amount of movement across the bracket have set up big changes to bracketology. With the 1-seed battle temporarily stable, the rest of the field makes headlines.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston
Last four byes: Santa Clara, Texas A&M, UCLA, Georgia
Last four in: SDSU, USC, Ohio State, UCF
First four out: New Mexico, Missouri, VCU, TCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 Morgan State (MEAC)
16 LIU (NEC) vs. 16 NJIT (AEC)
11 SDSU vs. 11 USC
11 Ohio State vs. 11 UCF

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/Morgan State
8 NC State vs. 9 St. Mary’s
Greenville
5 Alabama vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
San Diego
6 St. Louis (A10) vs. 11 SDSU/USC
3 Kansas vs. 14 Cal Baptist (WAC)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Purdue vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan retains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after picking up a blowout win over bubble candidate UCLA. The Wolverines now prepare for their next matchup against a surging Purdue team

2-seed Purdue

Purdue sits on the 2-seed line of bracketology following a win over Iowa. The Boilermakers look to continue their surge in the analytics and up the seed-lines with an opportunity against No. 1 overall seed Michigan.

South (Houston)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)
8 Indiana vs. 9 Miami
Buffalo
5 Virginia vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Tampa
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Ohio State/UCF
3 Florida (SEC) vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Philadelphia
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Iowa State vs. 15 South Alabama (SBC)

1-seed Houston

Houston finds some stability on the 1-seed line as others around them continue to take losses, adding a win over Kansas State to their resume. The Cougars will see Iowa State next, in a critical matchup for the seeding of Big 12 teams.

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State is coming off a win against Kansas, which helped them rebound quickly from a loss which knocked them off the 1-seed line in bracketology. The Cyclones have another big chance to boost their stock against Houston next.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 LIU/NJIT
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 Auburn
Tampa
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Oklahoma City
6 Tennessee vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Austin Peay (ASUN)
Buffalo
7 Clemson vs. 10 UCLA
2 UConn (Big East) vs. 15 Navy (Patriot)

1-seed Duke

Duke moves up in the pecking order on the 1-seed line, picking up a win over Clemson to assert its play atop the ACC. The Blue Devils next game will come against Syracuse in the midweek.

2-seed UConn

UConn is coming off a win over Georgetown, helping steady them in the 2-seed mix as they look to climb back onto the 1-seed line. The Huskies will face Creighton next on the schedule.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Merrimack (MAAC)
8 Iowa vs. 9 SMU
Portland
5 Arkansas vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Louisville vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Portland
6 BYU vs. 11 Georgia
3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
Philadelphia
7 Villanova vs. 10 Texas
2 Illinois vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona had a bad week for the first time all season, going from unbeaten to a two-loss team after dropping games against Kansas and Texas Tech. The Wildcats must now bounce back against BYU.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois is coming off an overtime loss against Wisconsin, with a game coming on Sunday against Indiana. The Fighting Illini will also play bubble contender USC in the coming days.