2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections shift entering February

The weekend in college basketball is far from over with big-time matchups on deck Sunday, but the results from Friday and Saturday have shifted the way bracketology looks, setting the tone for February to begin. With the calendar moving closer and closer to March, a shift has been made from labeling the top team in the model an automatic bid, the top team in the conference standings will take that spot.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the marquee games continue into the afternoon, there is plenty to unpack from the top seeds down through the bubble. Using all available information, here is another look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, UConn
Last four byes: New Mexico, Georgia, Miami, UCLA
Last four in: USC, Texas, Ohio State, Santa Clara
First four out: SDSU, Seton Hall, Washington, California

First Four (Dayton)

16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 UMES (MEAC)
16 St. Peter’s (MAAC) vs. 16 NJIT (AEC)
11 USC vs. 11 Santa Clara
11 Texas vs. 11 Ohio State

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/UMES
8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 Wisconsin
Tampa
5 Virginia vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Troy (SBC)
Philadelphia
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Texas/Ohio State
3 Michigan State vs. 14 Wright State (Horizon)
Portland
7 UCF vs. 10 Georgia
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 UT Martin (OVC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona continues its undefeated run through the season, making it to 22-0 over the weekend to solidify a claim for the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology. The next game for the Wildcats comes Oklahoma State, a full week from their last matchup.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga makes a return to the 2-seed line with a strong non-conference resume enough to keep them high in the metrics through the WCC schedule, where they picked up their most valuable win so far against St. Mary’s. They now have a clear path forward, favored in each of their upcoming matchups.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Harvard (Ivy)
8 Texas A&M vs. 9 Indiana
Portland
5 Louisville vs. 12 Utah Valley (WAC)
4 BYU vs. 13 North Dakota State (Summit)
Oklahoma City
6 Arkansas vs. 11 USC/Santa Clara
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Portland State (Big Sky)
Philadelphia
7 NC State vs. 10 New Mexico
2 Nebraska vs. 15 Charlotte (American)

1-seed UConn

UConn continues to assert themselves with a solid 1-seed resume, the greatest threat coming from Big Ten contenders who face a significantly tougher schedule than what is available in the Big East this season. The Huskies can minimize the chances of any team passing them by winning their next matchup against Xavier.

2-seed Nebraska

Nebraska comes off a loss to Michigan during the midweek schedule, but still sits on the 2-seed line after a strong performance with key injuries limited their downward movement. The Cornhuskers now face an opportunity to bounce back against Illinois on Sunday.

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 Kentucky vs. 9 SMU
Tampa
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Florida vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Buffalo
6 St. John’s vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Purdue vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Oklahoma City
7 Auburn vs. 10 Miami
2 Houston vs. 15 Austin Peay (ASUN)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan remains in the No. 2 overall seed position, picking up a second marquee win of the week against Michigan State on Friday. The Wolverines are on razor thin margins when compared to Duke’s resume, but have helped keep themselves on the right side with the big wins.

2-seed Houston

Houston kept themselves on the upward swing in the latest bracketology projections, coming off a win against Cincinnati. The Cougars now look toward a matchup against UCF with a chance to keep themselves near the top of the conference standings and in the mix to move up the board.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 St. Peter’s/NJIT
8 Iowa vs. 9 Utah State (MWC)
San Diego
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
4 Kansas vs. 13 UC Irvine (Big West)
Greenville
6 St. Louis (A10) vs. 11 UCLA
3 Vanderbilt vs. 14 Winthrop (Big South)
St. Louis
7 Clemson vs. 10 St. Mary’s
2 Illinois vs. 15 Navy (Patriot)

1-seed Duke

Duke continues to make a push toward the teams above them on the 2-seed line of bracketology, firmly in the mix to make a leap with the slightest slip-up. The Blue Devils continue to run through the ACC schedule and will see Boston College next.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois continues to surge in the analytic models, bringing them up the board of 2-seed candidates in a Big Ten which features plenty resume-building opportunities ahead. One of the biggest comes on Sunday, when they face Nebraska.