2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch enters final stages as conference tournaments start

The NCAA Tournament bubble has shifted over the course of the college basketball season, with just days left until Selection Sunday fills out a 68-team bracket. Headlining the biggest movers across the bubble, there are many teams one the bubble looking to make conference tournament runs.

Every team’s position has started to solidify. As the season winds down, there are many teams safely in the field, while others hover too close to a bubble conversation. Meanwhile, many bubble teams are a deep run from landing a spot in the NCAA Tournament field.

For now, teams in the conversation for a 10-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 11-seed lines are sweating out the final days with the risk of bid-stealers. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do, with a very thin margin to make a case.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams that have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Oklahoma (52) – Stock Up

Oklahoma looked far outside the bubble conversation just a few weeks ago, but a four-game win streak which includes head-to-head results against fellow candidates has them looking to keep things interesting. They need a deep run, but as others drop early opportunities to solidify their resume, the odds continue to climb.

The Sooners will start their SEC Tournament run against South Carolina on Wednesday, with the winner set to face Texas A&M next. From there, the bracket leads to Arkansas, which would provide any of the advancing teams with a massive resume-building opportunity.

Miami (OH) (54) – Stock Up

Miami (OH) was able to complete the regular season 31-0, solidifying their spot in the NCAA Tournament field with a win over Ohio. There could still be debate, but all signs point to the Selection Committee including them regardless of the MAC Tournament outcome.

The Redhawks hold strong resume metrics which suggest they performed better against their schedule than the fellow bubble teams would. They will first get a chance at the automatic bid, but the stock has risen in at-large debates as well.

Santa Clara (40) – Stock Up

Santa Clara removed itself from the bubble debate with a WCC Tournament win over St. Mary’s, taking them from the border of the Last Four In debate to a team which solidly lands inside the field. The result against Gonzaga would have secured an automatic big, but does not hurt the resume.

The Broncos will make the WCC a three-bid league alongside Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, as they boast a resume which matches up favorably with any bubble team. The only conversation now will center on how high they can move on the seed-line.

Stanford (62) – Stock Down

Stanford wrapped up the regular season with a four-game win streak, dragging themselves into the bubble conversation with a strong Quadrant 1 resume to compare with others. However, they suffered an upset loss to Pittsburgh in the First Round of the ACC Tournament which all-but ensures they will fall short of the cutline on Selection Sunday.

With no games ahead on the schedule, the Cardinal must watch and hope for quick exits from the rest of the bubble candidates. Beyond that, they need a lack of bid-stealers and a committee which values Q1 wins more than they dock lower-quadrant losses.

UCF (51) – Stock Down

UCF has risen and fallen in the bubble conversation multiple times throughout the season. Now, they find themselves hanging onto a spot in the Last Four In after losing three straight to close the regular season.

The Big 12 Tournament will provide the Knights with a chance to lock themselves into the field, but it will not come easily. The run starts on Wednesday against fellow bubble team Cincinnati, with the winner facing Arizona.

Missouri (59) – Stock Down

Missouri missed out on an opportunity to lock themselves into the NCAA Tournament field in the final week of the regular season, dropping games against Oklahoma and Arkansas. They still sit on the right side of the bubble, but with far less margin if bid-stealers shake things up.

The Tigers will face the winner of Kentucky vs. LSU on Thursday, giving them another chance to make themselves a likely at-large pick. With a lower NET Ranking than others in the same conversation, they will not feel safe until their name is called.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Duke (1), Clemson (36), Louisville (13), Miami (32), NC State (35), North Carolina (23), Virginia (14)
On the bubble: SMU (37), Virginia Tech (57)
More to do: California (66), Stanford (62)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (3), BYU (24), Houston (7), Iowa State (8), Kansas (19), TCU (41), Texas Tech (15)
On the bubble: UCF (51)
More to do: Cincinnati (46)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (5), Iowa (25), Michigan (2), Michigan State (11), Nebraska (12), Ohio State (30), Purdue (10), UCLA (34), Wisconsin (26)
On the bubble: Indiana (38)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (17), Arkansas (18), Florida (4), Georgia (31), Kentucky (28), Tennessee (20), Texas (42), Texas A&M (43), Vanderbilt (16)
On the bubble: Auburn (39), Missouri (59)
More to do: Oklahoma (52)

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (21), UConn (9), Villanova (33)
On the bubble: N/A
More to do: Seton Hall (55)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (6), Miami (OH) (54), Santa Clara (40), St. Louis (27), St. Mary’s (22), Utah State (29)
On the bubble: New Mexico (45), VCU (44)
More to do: SDSU (47), South Florida (48)