2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology as first NET Rankings release

The college basketball season is officially underway, with teams across the country already looking to establish their nonconference resume for Selection Sunday. As more analytic systems release their data following the first month of games, there are plenty big-time matchups which have set the tone across the field.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the first NET Rankings officially release with a full month of information, other metrics and preseason projections now give way to the official NCAA metric as the primary datapoint. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Duke, Purdue, Houston
Last four byes: Virginia, Texas, Ohio State, Creighton
Last four in: Butler, SMU, Ole Miss, NC State
First four out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Kansas State, TCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
16 SIUE (OVC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 Butler vs. 11 SMU
11 Ole Miss vs. 11 NC State

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 SIUE/LIU
8 Missouri vs. 9 Nebraska
Buffalo
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Kentucky vs. 13 McNeese (Southland)
Tampa
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Memphis (American)
3 Tennessee vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Portland
7 Baylor vs. 10 Utah State (MWC)
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan gets vaulted up to the No. 1 overall seed with a massive Feast Week performance in the Players Era Festival. The Wolverines dominated top competition, leaving no doubt that they will sit atop the computer models and in the conversation for best overall resume.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga looks like a legitimate contender early in the season, finding a mix of talent which has them high up the board in analytic models. Despite a setback against Michigan, they remain in the mix for a top seed as things stand.

West (San Jose)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Southern/Norfolk State
8 UCLA vs. 9 Virginia
Portland
5 Illinois vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 BYU vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Philadelphia
6 Auburn vs. 11 Butler/SMU
3 Michigan State vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
San Diego
7 USC vs. 10 Creighton
2 Arizona vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Houston holds onto the last spot on the 1-seed line in large part due to the preseason metrics which still carry weight. While analytic models have a hard time pinning down the Cougars so far, they still look like one of the top teams in college basketball.

2-seed Arizona

There is no question that Arizona boasts one of the most impressive resumes in college basketball to this point in the season, with multiple big wins over top competition. That brings the Wildcats to the cusp of the 1-seed conversation with room to move up.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Navy (Patriot)
8 LSU vs. 9 Wisconsin
Philadelphia
5 Kansas vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Florida vs. 13 Murray State (MVC)
Buffalo
6 Indiana vs. 11 Ole Miss/NC State
3 UConn (Big East) vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Oklahoma City
7 Clemson vs. 10 Texas
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence near the top of every model, from the polls to the computers. Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils have done nothing so far to move anyone off the idea that they will compete for a 1-seed all season.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State once again carries great weight in the analytic models this season, using early results to keep them in the mix for a top seed. The Cyclones will get plenty more chances to build the resume over the course of the season, determining where they land.

South (Houston)

St. Louis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Siena (MAAC)
8 St. Mary’s vs. 9 Georgia
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 High Point (Big South)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Tampa
6 Iowa vs. 11 St. Louis (A10)
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Greenville
7 Arkansas vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Louisville vs. 15 FGCU (ASUN)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue has strung together great results so far, keeping them atop the polls and in the mix with other top teams under computer models. The Boilermakers look the part of a 1-seed and have enough big results to back it up.

2-seed Louisville

Louisville continues to carry momentum through the season with a handful of solid results as they work their way into the schedule’s bigger games ahead. The Cardinals have the talent and the path to contend for a top seed all season.