2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology as first NET Rankings release

The college basketball season is officially underway, with teams across the country already looking to establish their nonconference resume for Selection Sunday. As more analytic systems release their data following the first month of games, there are plenty big-time matchups which have set the tone across the field.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the first NET Rankings officially release with a full month of information, other metrics and preseason projections now give way to the official NCAA metric as the primary datapoint. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Purdue, Houston
Last four byes: Virginia, Texas, Ohio State, Creighton
Last four in: Butler, SMU, Ole Miss, NC State
First four out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Kansas State, TCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
16 SIUE (OVC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 Butler vs. 11 SMU
11 Ole Miss vs. 11 NC State

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 SIUE/LIU
8 Missouri vs. 9 Nebraska
Buffalo
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Kentucky vs. 13 McNeese (Southland)
Tampa
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Memphis (American)
3 Tennessee vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Portland
7 Baylor vs. 10 Utah State (MWC)
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

2-seed Gonzaga

West (San Jose)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Southern/Norfolk State
8 UCLA vs. 9 Virginia
Portland
5 Illinois vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 BYU vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Philadelphia
6 Auburn vs. 11 Butler/SMU
3 Michigan State vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
San Diego
7 USC vs. 10 Creighton
2 Arizona vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Houston

2-seed Arizona

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Navy (Patriot)
8 LSU vs. 9 Wisconsin
Philadelphia
5 Kansas vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Florida vs. 13 Murray State (MVC)
Buffalo
6 Indiana vs. 11 Ole Miss/NC State
3 UConn (Big East) vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Oklahoma City
7 Clemson vs. 10 Texas
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)

1-seed Duke

2-seed Iowa State

South (Houston)

St. Louis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Siena (MAAC)
8 St. Mary’s vs. 9 Georgia
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 High Point (Big South)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Tampa
6 Iowa vs. 11 St. Louis (A10)
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Greenville
7 Arkansas vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Louisville vs. 15 FGCU (ASUN)

1-seed Purdue

2-seed Louisville