2026 NCAA Tournament projections: ESPN shakes up Bracketology after Feast Week with new overall No. 1 seed

Feast Week has come and gone in college basketball, concluding one of the best points of the sport’s calendar. Plenty of high-level matchups took place to provide great entertainment. But as always, roads lead to the NCAA Tournament.

So, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has put together his latest edition of Bracketology. A good mix of new information comes with the updated field, including who has earned the one seeds to this point. Lunardi also updated his bubble, showing which schools have more work to do during conference play.

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: UCLA, LSU, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
Last Four In: Georgia, Butler, Texas, TCU
First Four Out: Santa Clara, Miami, VCU, Creighton
Next Four Out: Villanova, Colorado, Wake Forest, UCF

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan vs. 16. Long Island / Norfolk State
8. Missouri vs. 9. NC State
5. North Carolina vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Vanderbilt vs. 13. California Baptist
6. Kentucky vs. 11. Yale
3. Louisville vs. 14. Oakland
7. Iowa vs. 10. LSU
2. Houston vs. 15. St. Thomas-Minnesota

To this point of the season, Michigan holds the No. 1 overall seed for Lunardi. With the position comes a favorable region, potentially sending the Wolverines to Chicago for Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games.

Based on the bracketing here, we could see a second-round rematch between Louisville and Kentucky. And then looking at the two-seed, the defending national champions provide as tough a matchup as any team in college basketball.

ESPN Bracketology: South (Houston)

1. Purdue vs. 16. Incarnate Word / Southern
8. Clemson vs. 9. Oklahoma State
5. Auburn vs. 12. High Point
4. Kansas vs. 13. New Mexico State
6. USC vs. 11. Texas / TCU
3. Alabama vs. 14. South Alabama
7.  Saint Mary’s vs. 10. Ohio State
2. BYU vs. 15. Colgate

Michigan taking the top overall seed means Purdue will have to play a little further from home. Boilermaker fans still travel quite well, meaning plenty of black and gold should arrive in Houston if this scenario plays out.

As for the rest of the bracket, some rivalry games could take place throughout. Old Big 12 foes Texas and TCU face off in the projected First Four. It’s always interesting to see the potential of Alabama-Auburn playing in the NCAA Tournament as well.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke vs. 16. Vermont
8. Utah State vs. 9. Wisconsin
5. Illinois vs. 12. Akron
4. Florida vs. 13. UNC Wilmington
6. Indiana vs. 11. Georgia / Butler
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7.  Arkansas vs. 10. Virginia
2. UConn vs. 15. Quinnipiac

We did not see Duke participate in any big-time MTE during the holiday. Instead, head coach Jon Scheyer scheduled his team to play on Thanksgiving Day against Arkansas. Pair that with Tuesday night’s ACC/SEC Challenge and the Blue Devils put two quality wins on the resume.

Ironically, both Florida and Arkansas are also in the East region. Looking ahead to potential matchups — Duke vs. UConn in our nation’s capital would produce quite the spectacle in the Elite Eight.

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona vs. 16. Tennessee State
8. Nebraska vs. 9. SMU
5. St. John’s vs. 12. Belmont
4. Tennessee vs. 13. Tulsa
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Saint Louis
3. Michigan State vs. 14. East Tennessee State
7. Baylor vs. 10. UCLA
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Austin Peay

Arizona might be the fourth one-seed in Lunardi’s projections. But the Wildcats still get to stay on their side of the country. First and second-round games would take place in San Diego before heading a little further north to San Jose with two wins.

Plenty of quality opponents would travel out West to fill this region. Some legendary head coaches are scattered as well, bringing a ton of firepower.