AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after Week 10 of college football

As we get deeper into the second half of the season, each result is becoming more meaningful toward the College Football Playoff picture. If you’re not in the top 25 by this point in the season, you’re probably realistically out of the playoff picture.

Saturday’s slate featured several ranked-on-ranked matchups, which helped further sort the field. There are some new strong contenders, as well as some that have slid out of likely contention.

There was a lot to digest. Today, On3 stops to break down some of the changes anticipated in this week’s AP Top 25. Let’s dig into our projections for the new edition of the top college football poll below.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)

RESULT: 38-14 win vs. Penn State
The game was close for a half, then Ohio State broke things open by pitching a shutout in the second half. The Buckeyes outscored the Nittany Lions 21-0 in the second half, opening up the game and making it smooth sailing the rest of the way.

And even though Penn State has been down this year, that might have been the toughest test remaining for Ohio State until the regular season finale at Michigan. Ohio State seems all but locked into the playoff at this point.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)

RESULT: 55-10 win vs. Maryland
Another week, another blowout for Indiana. The Hoosiers are a legitimate machine at this point, and they can do it in any number of ways. They showed that yet again on Saturday afternoon, without missing a beat on the day.

Against Maryland it was the ground game that went off. The Hoosiers ran for 367 yards and scored four times on the ground, with four different players finding the end zone. Fernando Mendoza was picked off once but ran for a score and threw for another and it was an absolute cakewalk for Indiana.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)

RESULT: BYE
Texas A&M was on a bye this week after thoroughly shredding LSU a week ago in Baton Rouge. That win was lopsided enough that the Tigers fired coach Brian Kelly in its aftermath, cranking up the coaching carousel to a new level.

For its part, Texas A&M has answered every question asked of it so far this season and it’s a big reason the Aggies are ranked so high in the top 25. There are only two ranked wins, so the schedule will get tougher from here — two of the final four games are against ranked opponents — but you can only win the games you play. The Aggies have done that.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

RESULT: BYE
Alabama has now won seven straight games since dropping the season opener to Florida State. Few teams are in better form currently than the Crimson Tide, which has dispatched top 25 opponents in four of the last five games.

Last time out it was a narrow win over South Carolina, but Alabama answered the bell in crunch time. Can it avoid a tight game against a potentially revitalized LSU team after a bye? Coaching changes can make those kinds of games fluky.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)

RESULT: 24-20 win vs. Florida
You can never take rivalry games for granted and luckily for Kirby Smart and his squad they didn’t learn that the hard way on Saturday. Still, it took all four quarters to knock off rival Florida.

The defense came up with enough stops when it needed to, preventing Georgia from adding a second loss. That’s huge, because a major matchup with a top 25 Texas team is looming in two weeks. First, though, a road trip to Mississippi State.

6. Oregon Ducks (7-1)

RESULT: BYE
Oregon was also on a bye this week after taking care of Wisconsin in a monsoon a week ago. The score of that game was a little closer than many expected, but the game was never really in doubt and, as mentioned, it happened in a serious downpour.

Oregon has what could be an interesting test coming up, going on the road to take on Iowa. If there’s a team capable of an upset of a major team in the league, it’s probably the Hawkeyes. Beyond that, only dates with USC and Washington could get a little interesting. But everything is in front of the Ducks.

7. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)

RESULT: 30-14 win vs. South Carolina
It was a tough fight for about three quarters, then Ole Miss began to pull away from South Carolina. The defense really locked in in the second half, making life extremely difficult on LaNorris Sellers and company.

For Lane Kiffin and his squad, this one was a must-have. The schedule isn’t overly difficult down the stretch, but this South Carolina team pushed Alabama to the limits. It was capable of springing a top 25 upset. Well, upset avoided for the Rebs.

8. BYU Cougars (8-0)

RESULT: BYE
One of only a handful of unbeatens left in the country, BYU has taken care of business in every game this year. It hasn’t faced a ton of tests, with Utah the only ranked opponent it has beaten to start.

That will change immediately. A road trip to a top 25 Texas Tech squad is up next, followed by a road trip to ranked Cincinnati two weeks later. BYU can probably afford one loss, but it needs to avoid two going forward.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)

RESULT: 25-10 win vs. Boston College
It took a little while for Notre Dame to pull away for good, but running back Jeremiyah Love had himself a Heisman Trophy type moment with a 94-yard touchdown run. He scored twice in the win.

Quarterback CJ Carr was also sharp, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Up next is a contest against a Navy team that had flirted with top 25 status before a recent loss.

10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)

RESULT: 43-20 win vs. Kansas State
With Will Hammond out, Behren Morton took back over at quarterback for Texas Tech. He did throw an interception, but he finished with 249 passing yards and two touchdowns as well. That was enough for Texas Tech to cruise.

The offense put up double-digits in each of the final three quarters to breeze past the Wildcats. Next up is the big one for Texas Tech. A showdown against a top 25 BYU team with ESPN’s College GameDay in the house.

Rest of the AP Top 25 Projections

11. Virginia Cavaliers (8-1)
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
13. Louisville Cardinals (7-1)
14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-1)
15. Texas Longhorns (7-2)
16. Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2)
17. Missouri Tigers (6-2)
18. Michigan Wolverines (7-2)
19. Utah Utes (7-2)
20. USC Trojans (6-2)
21. Miami Hurricanes (6-2)
22. Memphis Tigers (8-1)
23. Tennessee Volunteers (6-3)
24. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)
25. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2)