AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after Week 3 of college football

Conference play began in earnest for several leagues on Saturday, providing some thoroughly compelling matchups. With that, there was plenty of potential for intrigue in the AP Top 25.

And a few upstarts answered the call, scoring upsets in the top 25. South Carolina, Clemson, Tennessee, Notre Dame and South Florida all lost.

Today, On3 stops to break down some of the changes anticipated in this week’s AP Top 25. Let’s dig into our projections for the new edition of the top college football poll below.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)

RESULT: 37-9 win vs. Ohio
It was a sluggish start for the Buckeyes, who scored only three points in the first quarter and didn’t really break things open until the second half. Still, a win is a win and nothing about Ohio State’s win Saturday should move them off the No. 1 spot in the top 25.

Quarterback Julian Sayin was picked off twice but threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Ohio State had a 100-yard rusher (Bo Jackson), as well as two 100-yard receivers (Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate) in the win.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)

RESULT: 52-6 win vs. Villanova
Penn State had no trouble with Villanova, though some bettors might be upset … a last-second touchdown caused the over to hit and allowed Villanova to cover. Still, it was a mostly uneventful day for the Nittany Lions.

Now the program gets a bye week to prepare for a game against a top 25 Oregon squad. That one could set the early pecking order in the Big Ten this season.

3. LSU Tigers (3-0)

RESULT: 20-10 win vs. Florida
LSU’s offense remains a little stuck in the mud, but it didn’t matter with the defense proving to be incredibly opportunistic on Saturday night in Death Valley. The Tigers picked off Gators quarterback DJ Lagway five times in the contest.

That was enough for LSU to secure a comfortable win that was more lopsided than the score indicated. LSU now gets another tune-up against Southeastern Louisiana before a stretch that features four top 25 teams among the next five opponents.

4. Oregon Ducks (3-0)

RESULT: 34-14 win at Northwestern
It wasn’t a turnover-free day for the Ducks, with quarterback Dante Moore throwing one interception in a contest against Northwestern. Still, the Ducks were in complete command throughout, with the Wildcats scoring all of their points in the fourth quarter, when the game was already decided.

For coach Dan Lanning, everything continues to go according to plan. Next week will provide a matchup with Oregon State before a pivotal road trip to Penn State the following week. That’s when we’ll start to learn more about the Ducks.

5. Miami Hurricanes (3-0)

RESULT: 49-12 win vs. USF
Miami wasted almost no time proving USF wasn’t going to score a second huge upset of an in-state team. Quarterback Carson Beck was sharp early, going 23-of-28 passing for 340 yards and three touchdowns, though he did throw two interceptions.

Running back Mark Fletcher did the rest, rushing for 121 yards and three scores as Miami blasted USF. Next up for Miami is another in-state test: a home date with Florida.

6. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

RESULT: 44-41 overtime win at Tennessee
It took extra time, but Georgia survived thanks to a late missed field goal from Tennessee. Coach Kirby Smart admitted after the game that Tennessee probably should have won, but that’s not how they score them.

The Bulldogs got an excellent outing from quarterback Gunner Stockton, who looked unrattled by the hostile crowd. Stockton finished with 304 yards passing and two touchdowns and also ran for another score. Georgia appears to be in good hands.

7. Texas Longhorns (2-1)

RESULT: 27-10 win vs. UTEP
It was a thoroughly forgettable afternoon for the Longhorns, and perhaps even moreso for quarterback Arch Manning. Manning finished 11-of-25 for 114 yards passing, with one touchdown and one interception. At one point, fans booed him.

It’s clear at this point that Texas has work to do if it hopes to remain a legitimate playoff contender. But these types of games are just what the doctor ordered before SEC play begins. Up next is Sam Houston, then it’s on to conference play.

8. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0)

RESULT: 38-0 win vs. Western Michigan
It was an easy day’s work for Bret Bielema‘s bunch, which shut out Western Michigan in an easy 38-0 victory. Quarterback Luke Altmyer threw for 196 yards and two scores and ran for another.

Now Illinois faces a stiffer test. Up next is a game at a top 25 Indiana program that has had some serious momentum in the last couple years. That should tell us a good deal more about the Fighting Illini.

9. Florida State Seminoles (2-0)

RESULT: BYE WEEK
Florida State vaulted into the top 25 courtesy of its win over Alabama and it stands to benefit from some of the other results this weekend. The Seminoles themselves were off this week prior to a road trip to Virginia.

But all eyes are on the game against in-state rival Miami coming up after that. Win that one and the conversations about Florida State being a potential playoff team will begin in earnest. It won’t be easy, though.

10. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)

RESULT: 42-3 win at Temple
Oklahoma found itself in the rare position of traveling to Temple, but the Sooners made the most of the trip. It was an easy win for Brent Venables and company, who suddenly have a ton of momentum behind quarterback John Mateer.

Mateer threw for 282 yards and a touchdown, while he ran for 63 yards and another score. Oklahoma’s offense is showing nice balance and a healthy host of skill position players are contributing. Next up is a matchup of unbeatens with Auburn coming to town.

Rest of the Projected Top 25: 11-25

11. Texas A&M Aggies (3-0)
12. Iowa State Cyclones (4-0)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)
14. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1)
15. Utah Utes (3-0)
16. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0)
17. Tennessee Volunteers (2-1)
18. Indiana Hoosiers (3-0)
19. Michigan Wolverines (2-1)
20. Auburn Tigers (3-0)
21. Missouri Tigers (3-0)
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0)
23. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-0)
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-2)
25. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1)