AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after Week 5 of college football

We’re officially five weeks into the 2025 season and after a slew of amazing games on Saturday, the pecking order atop the sport is really beginning to emerge. There have been plenty of upsets in the AP Top 25 over the last few weeks that have shaken things up.

That said, Saturday was about marquee matchups. There were a handful of elite games between conference foes that really set the tone for the weekend.

There was a lot to digest. Today, On3 stops to break down some of the changes anticipated in this week’s AP Top 25. Let’s dig into our projections for the new edition of the top college football poll below.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)

RESULT: 24-6 win at Washington
Washington put up a quality fight but simply ran out of gas in the game against Ohio State on Saturday. It was the Buckeyes defense that was the story of the game, thoroughly limiting a very good Huskies offense.

As Ohio State gets into its Big Ten schedule it’s going to need more of those performances from the defense. Up next is a home date with a plucky Minnesota squad.

2. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)

RESULT: BYE
Miami was on a bye week after bullying rival Florida at home in the previous week. There aren’t many teams in the country that look as well-rounded as Miami through the first five weeks of the season, thus the lofty ranking in the top 25.

The Hurricanes are elite on both lines of scrimmage, while quarterback Carson Beck has been very good. An upcoming game against Florida State lost a little luster with the Seminoles losing this week, but it will still be a monster matchup in Tallahassee.

3. Oregon Ducks (5-0)

RESULT: 30-24 overtime win at Penn State
Oregon knew it would have its hands full facing Penn State in a White Out game. And for a while, it looked like it might be smooth sailing to a win as the defense kept the Nittany Lions completely in check for the first three quarters.

But after taking a 17-3 lead, Oregon surrendered 21 straight points, spanning into overtime. But a gutsy effort finished things off, giving Oregon a huge top 25 win on the weekend. Heck of an effort for Dan Lanning and company in an extremely hostile environment.

4. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0)

RESULT: BYE
Oklahoma was off after surviving a tough test against Auburn the week prior. The Sooners could use the time to rest and recover, as the second half of the schedule is about to get downright brutal, especially with quarterback John Mateer expected to miss a few games.

There’s one more tune-up coming up against Kent State, then the gauntlet. The final seven games will feature six games against currently ranked teams — and a road trip to face a decent South Carolina squad. Tough, tough, tough.

5. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1)

Penn State head coach James Franklin — (Credit: Steve Manuel | Blue White Illustrated)

RESULT: 30-24 overtime loss vs. Oregon
Penn State struggled mightily at home for the first three quarters against Oregon, then nearly engineered a remarkable comeback. The team rallied from down 17-3 but couldn’t finish it off in overtime, ultimately ended by a Drew Allar interception.

The next few weeks are very manageable schedule-wise, so it’s on Penn State to bounce back. Do that and everything is still on the table as far as the College Football Playoffs.

6. Texas A&M Aggies (4-0)

RESULT: 16-10 win vs. Auburn
Thanks to a strong game from running back Le’Veon Moss, Texas A&M was in control for the vast majority of the contest. But a late tipped-ball interception that was returned almost all the way made it nervy at the end.

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Texas A&M’s defense did what it had to to hang on for the win. The more you start to look at the Aggies’ schedule, the more you can potentially see a big run forming. There isn’t a top 25 opponent on the schedule until Oct. 25 (LSU), and there are only three ranked opponents remaining.

7. Ole Miss Rebels (5-0)

RESULT: 24-19 win vs. LSU
Ole Miss has had no problem playing with a backup quarterback, with Trinidad Chambliss stepping in for Austin Simmons seamlessly over the last few weeks. He was on point again against LSU, picking up several key conversions with his legs.

The Rebels executed a masterclass offensive drive down the stretch, completed by a genius call by Lane Kiffin on a fourth-and-3. The schedule for Ole Miss sets up for a playoff run, with only two ranked opponents left on the slate.

8. Texas Longhorns (3-1)

Arch Manning — (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

RESULT: BYE
After a tricky start to the season, Texas finally seemed to exorcise some demons with a 55-0 demolition of Sam Houston last week. The bye week gives the team a chance to continue to tweak things ahead of a road trip to Florida.

And while that one shouldn’t present too many problems for a legitimate top 25 team, it could still be tricky. Then Oklahoma is looming on the other side in a huge rivalry game. Focus will be key for the Longhorns.

9. LSU Tigers (4-1)

RESULT: 24-19 loss at Ole Miss
LSU knew it was in for a battle against rival Ole Miss on the road, and it certainly got one. The game was in the balance for most of the contest, until the Rebels finally sealed the deal late in the fourth quarter.

Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t been his sharpest lately, and there are questions about his health despite coach Brian Kelly and the quarterback himself fending them off. Three of the next four opponents for LSU are currently ranked in the top 25, too, so the road isn’t getting any easier any time soon.

10. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1)

RESULT: 24-21 loss vs. Alabama
Georgia played a quality game against Alabama but ultimately couldn’t find enough to win. The pass defense remains a major concern, as Ty Simpson threw for two touchdowns and 276 yards in the victory over the Bulldogs.

For Kirby Smart‘s squad, the next couple weeks present some winnable games before a ranked matchup against Ole Miss. The margin for error is narrower now, but there are only three games left against current top 25 teams on the schedule.