Arkansas vs. Kentucky odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Razorbacks, Wildcats

Arkansas and Kentucky are set to meet on Saturday night in a key conference showdown, one that could further propel the NCAA Tournament hopes for the Wildcats.

While the Razorbacks haven’t been very good this year, the Wildcats have been. But Kentucky is coming off a blowout loss at the hands of South Carolina, looking to bounce back. Today’s game is a good shot to do it.

Arkansas has lost five of its last six games, with each of those losses by double digits. Kentucky has to come up with a win or risk damaging its NCAA Tournament profile. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.

Odds for Arkansas vs. Kentucky

Coming into the game, Kentucky is a 7.5-point favorite over Arkansas, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Wildcats are currently listed at -295 for the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Razorbacks are sitting at +235.

The point total for the game is set at 163.5 points. Kentucky leads the nation in scoring at 89.9 points per game, while Arkansas ranks No. 133 nationally at 76.2 points per game. That combined total sits at 166.1 points, an interesting divergence from the over/under total. And despite Arkansas’ recent struggles, the Razorbacks do have a win over a top-10 team this year, previously knocking off Duke. So Saturday’s contest offers some additional intrigue.

Final score predictions for Arkansas vs. Kentucky

BPI predicted winner: Kentucky
BPI predicted point differential: 6.7
CPI win probability (for Kentucky): 71.5%
BPI matchup quality: 76.4

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 6.7 points in Kentucky’s favor. It also gives the Wildcats a 71.5% chance to win the game over the Razorbacks on the road.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 76.4, which ranks at No. 22 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom predicted final score: Kentucky 87, Arkansas 80
KenPom win probability (for Kentucky): 72%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

For Saturday’s game between Arkansas and Kentucky, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Wildcats to lose by seven points.

How to watch Arkansas vs. Kentucky

Time: 6 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Bud Walton Arena – Fayetteville, Ark.

The opening tip between the Razorbacks and Wildcats is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET and will air live on ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.

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Saturday’s game promises to be a good one. ESPN’s College GameDay will be in the house to hype up the Bud Walton Arena crowd beforehand, so Kentucky can expect a raucous environment.