Bracketology: ESPN shakes up 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions ahead of New Year's Day

Now that we are through Christmas and ready for the New Year, the latest ESPN bracketology is here! ESPN shook up its 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions with a new bracket.

What lies below are the teams on the bubble, good and bad. Plus, we’ll dive into each region and breakdown the projected matchups.

We’re still a few months away from the tournament actually beginning, so the bracketology prediction will certainly change. Without further ado, let’s dive into the bubble teams first!

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: NC State, LSU, Baylor, Indiana
Last Four In: Miami, Ohio State, Butler, Oklahoma
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Boise State, Cal, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Creighton, VCU

Miami and Ohio State are squaring off in the College Football Playoff and their basketball teams are right on the bubble in the bracketology predictions! Regular non-Power Four teams like Creighton and VCU have some work to do if they want to return to the tournament.

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan vs. 16. Lindenwood/Howard
8. Georgia vs. 9. UCF
5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Utah Valley
4. North Carolina vs. 13. Arkansas State
6. Iowa vs. 11. Butler/Oklahoma
3. Houston vs. 14. Lipscomb
7. Villanova vs. 10. NC State
2. Vanderbilt vs. 15. St. Thomas-Minnesota

Michigan has been absolutely dominant this season and are undefeated right now. The Wolverines get the No. 1 overall seed in ESPN’s latest bracketology.

This region is very interesting considering the rise of Vanderbilt at the No. 2 seed and UNC being on the same side of the bracket as the Wolverines. Iowa is always a sneaky play too.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. UConn vs. 16. Colgate
8. Auburn vs. 9 SMU
5. Tennessee vs. 12. William & Mary
4. Kansas vs. 13 Illinois State
6. Arkansas vs. 11. Miami/Ohio State
3. Michigan State vs. 14 Quinnipiac
7. St. John’s vs. 10. LSU
2. Duke vs. 15 Vermont

Dan Hurley and UConn will look for three titles in four years and as a projected No. 1 seed in this bracketology, they’ll have a good shot. Auburn, in a new era, is on the same side of the bracket.

Duke has looked pretty darn good this year too, despite its close loss to Texas Tech, whom they avoid in the region. Michigan State is always going to be a tough out, so that potential Sweet 16 game is awesome.

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona vs. 16. Long Island
8. Saint Mary’s vs. 9. UCLA
5. Florida vs. 12. Akron
4. Nebraska vs. 13. Liberty
6. USC vs. 11 Tulsa
3. Illinois vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Utah State vs. 10. Baylor
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Furman

Arizona is the AP Poll’s top ranked team at this time and a No. 1 seed in ESPN’s latest bracketology. Defending national champion Florida is on that side of the bracket, but wouldn’t clash with the Wildcats until the Sweet 16.

Gonzaga is set up nicely once again with the No. 2 seed. USC, under Eric Musselman, will be an interesting watch in this region.

South (Houston)

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Milwaukee/Grambling
8. Clemson vs. 9. Seton Hall
5. Louisville vs. 12. Yale
4. Alabama vs. 13. High Point
6. Virginia vs. 11. Indiana
3. BYU vs. 14 Hawaii
7. Kentucky vs. 10. Saint Louis
2. Purdue vs. 15. Stephen F. Austin

The Cyclones might be the top team in college basketball that most aren’t talking about compared to others. This bracketology has Iowa State as the top seed in the south.

Purdue is a force, but is still looking to get over the hump when it comes to their NCAA Tournament runs. Kentucky getting in as a No. 7 seed is interesting, considering the challenging path to the Final Four.