College Football Playoff Rankings: ESPN uses hybrid formula to predict penultimate CFP Top 25
The latest College Football Playoff rankings are here, well sort of. Remember that ESPN formula that’s a little wacky but also might be logical? Yeah, that one.
The latest run of the numbers using SP and FPI in terms of power ratings and resume SP and strength of record were crunched. Sounds complicated? Don’t worry, ESPN did the math.
Let’s dive into ESPN’s Hybrid Formula to predict the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings coming out on Tuesday evening, via Bill Connelly.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)
Georgia was the No. 1 team in the CFP rankings last week and nothing should change following a win against Georgia Tech. While it might have not been a dominant effort, it’s not enough to dink the Bulldogs down a spot in ESPN’s eyes.
Next up in the SEC Championship game, where Kirby Smart will be going for his second consecutive conference title. A win will undoubtedly have Georiga in the playoff, while there could maybe be a scenario for them in there even with a loss.
2. Michigan Wolverines (12-0)
The Game was always going to be an emotional win for whoever came out on top. Michigan will be thankful it was them, continuing their undefeated season.
No. 3 was where the Wolverines were last week but now move up one spot after taking down their arch-rivals. At least from the outside, the Big Ten Championship is not thought to be too threatening and Michigan can count itself as a top-four team on Selection Sunday.
3. Washington Huskies (12-0)
An Apple Cup scare was there but Kalen DeBoer’s risky playcalling worked out for Washington. There has not been an undefeated regular season in Seattle since 1991 when the Huskies won the national championship.
Now, a trip to Las Vegas awaits, with the chance to make the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2016. Going up against the program’s top rival, it’s setting up to be a classic final Pac-12 game.
4. Florida State Seminoles (12-0)
Tuesday’s rankings will tell us how the committee feels about Florida State without Jordan Travis. Keeping them at No. 4 — as ESPN projects — would tell us an ACC Championship win gets them into the playoff.
Any kind of movement tells us the spot is up for grabs, though. Mike Norvell believes if his team takes care of business, they deserve a spot.
5. Oregon Ducks (11-1)
Since the rankings debuted, there has been no movement with the one-loss teams. Could that change due to a new team being added to the mix?
ESPN sure believes so, with Oregon moving up one spot, creating a win and you’re in scenario in the Pac-12 Championship. Getting revenge on your lone loss of the regular season would be a good feeling for Dan Lanning as well.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
Ohio State was the original No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings. Eventually bumped down to No. 2, ESPN now projects the Buckeyes to be No. 6 due to the Michigan loss.
Not playing in the Big Ten Championship game, a near miracle would need to occur for Ohio State to have a chance at the top four. A crushing defeat in Ann Arbor in more ways than one.
7. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
Oregon is not the only one-loss team hoping they move up in the rankings. Texas finally got a blowout win, coming at the expense of Texas Tech in Austin on Friday night. Unfortunately, the ESPN system does not believe it will be enough.
You would think a Big 12 Championship win would be enough to get past Ohio State in the final rankings. But will it propel them in the College Football Playoff? Some other dominions likely would need to fall.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Even Nick Saban thought Alabama was lucky to come out with an Iron Bowl win against Auburn. A miracle play, dubbed “Grave Digger” by Isaiah Bond, was pulled off in the final moments of a crazy one inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.
But Alabama is still likely to remain at No. 8 in the rankings, at least per ESPN. A win in the SEC Championship might not be enough and some help will be needed along the way.
9. Missouri Tigers (10-2)
This is where teams will begin to argue about New Year’s Six bowl spots, not making the CFP. Missouri will certainly feel like they deserve to play in one, especially after destroying Arkansas on Black Friday.
No. 9 will be a safe spot for the Tigers when it comes to a NY6. Where they play would not be known until the conference championship games shake out.
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)
If this is how the rankings play out, nobody will have been happier to see Louisville fall to Kentucky on Saturday than Penn State. This puts the Nittany Lions right back in the mix for a New Year’s Six spot, something James Franklin was advocating for.
While the Michigan and Ohio State losses were tough, Penn State has taken care of business against every other team on the schedule. Another solid season in Happy Valley, with the bowl game pending.
11. Ole Miss Rebels
12. Oklahoma Sooners
13. LSU Tigers
14. Louisville Cardinals
15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
16. Arizona Wildcats
17. Tulane Green Wave
18. Iowa Hawkeyes
19. Oklahoma State Cowboys
20. Liberty Flames
21. Oregon State Beavers
22. NC State Wolfpack
23. Tennessee Volunteers
24. SMU Mustangs
25. James Madison Dukes
Only 13 of the teams ranked inside the top 25 are going to be playing this week. There should not be too big of a difference in the rankings on Sunday morning. But most importantly, we will know which four teams are still alive to win a national championship.
On3’s Nick Kosko contributed to this report