College Football Playoff: Predicting Orange Bowl outcome between Oregon, Texas Tech

The first game in college football of the new year will be the Orange Bowl, with No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech kicking off in South Beach. Now, a week out from the game between the Ducks and the Red Raiders, On3’s Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman have previewed and predicted this quarterfinal in the CFP.

Staples and Wasserman did so while looking ahead at all the quarterfinals during ‘Andy & Ari On3’ on Monday. They each thought this was a fascinating game both on and off the field, with these programs known to have spent a lot on their rosters, one doing so for less time though, and obviously having done so well for them to be in this round of the College Football Playoff.

“This is also kind of the biggest narrative game of the whole quarterfinals,” said Staples. “Texas Tech went out and ‘they bought a team’ – like that’s a bad thing. And Oregon has been buying teams for years. All Texas Tech did is try to do what Oregon has been doing since the beginning of the NIL era.”

“I am a big feelings guy and a narratives guy. And, I like to watch games that help give us some insight on roster philosophy and all these things, and I think that this game illustrates that,” said Wasserman. “Even though they’re more similar than different in that regard, I do think that I’m interested to see how much you can accomplish in a single season or a single offseason. How much can you add to your roster? How much can you spend? Can you narrow the gap between the traditional team that has been signing top-ten classes for the last ten years in one single offseason in 2025 going into 2026?”

Again, based on spending for rosters this season, Oregon and Texas Tech are projected as two of the highest-valued in all of college football. That has since, well, paid off, with the Red Raiders winning their most games in school history at 12-1, winning the Big 12 Championship, and earning a bye in the CFP, while the Ducks also went 12-1 and were the first non-bye team in the field for the CFP.

As for predictions, though, Staples and Wasserman both went with Oregon. They thought, in that they may be more capable in winning any style of game, and with the talent that they have accumulated there over a longer period of time, that the Ducks would have just a little more to win, and thereby cover what’s still less than a field-goal spread, to advance to the semis of the College Football Playoff.

“I’m thinking it’s a low-scoring game. And, look, I think Oregon can win both ways. I think Oregon is capable of winning a shootout or a low-scoring game, so I’m not really worried about that. Like, if Texas Tech drags them into a low-scoring, lower number of possession-type game, I don’t think that that eliminates the chance for Oregon to win it. I think they play that way too, which is why I think Oregon is kind of my darkhorse national title team,” Staples said. “So, I think you probably know where I’m going with this. I think Oregon is going to win. Which, it’s essentially a pick ’em, so, yeah, I’ll take Oregon to cover.

“I’m very torn on how to pick this…Don’t feel good about either side, honestly. But, I am an animal with stripes, and I can’t change my stripes…I think Oregon has a lot of top-tier NFL players at positions…Like, just, I think they might have just one or two players too much to win the game,” Wasserman said. “I think that Texas Tech is certainly capable of winning the game, but I’m still going to go with the team that’s been doing this for four years over the team that’s been doing it once, or one year. And, it might turn out to be that that’s wrong…I’m going to take the Ducks, but at the same time know, with an open heart, that I could be wrong.”

Still, quite the game is expected either way here in this one down in Miami. The teams, as well as the spread, suggest as much, with it possibly coming down to the slimmest of margins in the Orange Bowl in order to move on in the CFP.

“Like, we’re obviously both picking Oregon here. I don’t think either of us is predicting a blowout here,” Staples said. “I think there’s a high probability that we’re both wrong here, and it’s really going to come down to who deploys, about the deployment of assets. Who deploys their really good players better in this game? And then this may actually come down to coaching.

“I can’t wait for this. It’s going to be so much fun.”

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