College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 10

The debut of the first College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings of the 2025 season will be released Tuesday night during ESPN‘s College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings Show at 8 pm ET. But before that happens, ESPN insider Heather Dinich is giving fans a sneak peak at what it could look like.

Following a wild Week 10 slate that saw six Top 25 teams go down, Dinich released her latest projection of how the 12-member CFP selection committee could rank the Top 12 teams in college football Sunday morning with a massive shakeup in the Top 10. That’s because three Top 10 teams — No. 8 Georgia Tech, No. 9 Vanderbilt and No. 10 Miami — all lost on Saturday. The other Week 10 losers include No. 14 Tennessee, No. 17 Cincinnati and No. 22 Houston, further complicating the ACC and Big 12 conference races.

So, as we await the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings on Tuesday, check out how Dinich expects the Top 12 to shake out:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)

While there’s debate about which undefeated Big Ten team deserves the top spot, Dinich keeps the Buckeyes at No. 1 as it’s been since the second week of the regular season. She also cited Ohio State’s Week 1 win over a No. 20 Texas team that knocked off a Top 10-ranked Vanderbilt on Saturday.

The Buckeye’s FBS-leading defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 16 points to any opponent this season, is also a giant feather in OSU’s hat, as are other metrics that have Ohio State leading the nation in total efficiency while ranking in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)

The Hoosiers have arguably the top win of the season after their 30-20 victory over Oregon in Eugene on Oct. 11. Since then, Indiana has been flat out dominant, outscoring Michigan State, UCLA and Maryland by an average point differential of 40 points.

Despite that dominance, Dinich expects the Hoosiers will remain at No. 2 due to a not-so-challenging nonconference slate. And with no more ranked teams on its schedule, that’s not likely to change until Indiana meets the Buckeyes in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

While Texas A&M is still undefeated and remains the highest-ranked SEC team in both the AP and Coaches poll, Dinich expects the Playoff committee to give the No. 3 spot to the one-loss Crimson Tide due to its Week 5 road win over Georgia, which she expects could be a Top 5 team on Tuesday night.

In fact, it’s Alabama’s 4-0 mark against current Top 25 teams that could be the difference maker in the committee’s eyes. And while Dinich acknowledged how bad the Tide’s season-opening loss at unranked FSU continues to look, its impressive Playoff resume still trumps the Aggies undefeated record.

4. Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)

The Aggies remain undefeated entering the final month of the regular season and have one of the best nonconference wins of the season with its 41-40 road victory at Notre Dame in Week 2. But the rest of its resume leaves a lot to be desired.

That includes Texas A&M’s second-best win of the season came just a week ago, 49-25 at then-No. 20 LSU, which promptly fired its head coach and athletic director after following out of contention for both the Playoff and SEC race with three losses.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)

The Bulldogs hold onto the No. 5 spot in Dinich’s CFP Top 12 projection after escaping Jacksonville with their fifth-consecutive win over rival Florida on Saturday. Certainly helping matters is Georgia’s lone loss came in a 24-21 home defeat vs. Alabama, which Dinich has ranked No. 3.

Georgia gets the nod at No. 5 due to its head-to-head 43-35 win over Ole Miss two weeks ago, which is further strengthened by the Rebels’ success since. The Bulldogs’ Playoff resume features a 3-1 mark against current Top 25 teams and could be strengthened in two weeks when Texas comes to Athens.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)

As mentioned above, the Rebels remain at No. 6 in Dinich’s projection due to its head-to-head loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18, but still feature a strong resume that includes favorable analytics like its No. 7 ranking in ESPN’s strength of record metrics, an important factor this year.

That said, with no more Top 25 teams remaining on its schedule, Ole Miss could face challenges from Big 12-leading BYU and Texas Tech, which play each other next weekend. The winner of that game could make a push to climb the ranking in the CFP’s second Top 25 next week.

7. BYU Cougars (8-0) — +3

The Cougars were on bye this past weekend and thus avoided all the chaos in the Big 12 that saw ranked Cincinnati and Houston go down. BYU also has some key analytics working in its favor, including being ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, just ahead of Ole Miss.

Of course, a lot could change depending on what happens in next Saturday’s game at Texas Tech, which has rebounded nicely from its Week 8 loss at Arizona State with a pair of dominating wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State in back-to-back weekends.

8. Oregon Ducks (7-1)

Despite a less-than-inspiring resume that doesn’t currently include any Top 25 wins — since Penn State fell off the national radar after losing five straight beginning with Oregon’s 30-24 win in Happy Valley — the Ducks have mostly dominated everyone else they’ve played.

And with a November slate that includes a road game at Iowa and a home game vs. a Top 25 USC, Oregon has a great opportunity to continue to impress the Playoff committee down the stretch, including its season finale at Washington, which has only lost twice this season.

9. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1) — +4

Dinich specifically pointed to the Red Raiders’ Oct. 18 loss at Arizona State for landing at No. 9, especially given a Playoff resume that only includes one Top 25 win — against a Utah team that will likely climb the rankings after Saturday’s 45-14 blowout of No. 17 Cincinnati.

As mentioned above, Texas Tech’s season could come down to how it handles things against BYU, both in next week’s home game and in a potential rematch in the upcoming Big 12 title game. Though Dinich suggestes a home loss to the Cougars “could be devastating” to their chances in both the CFP and Big 12.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2) — +2

Arguably the most impressive team outside the Big Ten has been the Fighting Irish, who have won six straight since their 0-2 start to the season with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. And they’ve done it rather convincingly, including a 34-24 win over No. 23 USC two weeks ago.

While not having any more ranked games remaining on its schedule will make impressing the CFP committee all the more difficult, a Nov. 15 game at fellow two-loss Pitt could be key, especially if the Panthers crack the CFP’s Top 25 ranking Tuesday.

11. Texas Longhorns (7-2) — +9

This is where it gets tricky in Dinich’s projection. The ESPN insider projects the Playoff committee could be impressed enough by Saturday’s 34-31 win over No. 9 Vanderbilt, as well as its current four-game win streak in SEC play, to push the Longhorns into its Top 12 on Tuesday.

And, given what she expects will be potentially lower-ranked ACC and American Conference champions, Texas could still find itself on the outside looking in of the final rankings. Of course, that’s a month away following Championship Weekend and the ‘Horns have two more opportunities to climb the rankings.

12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) — +6

Dinich continues to favor the SEC with her projection the resurging Sooners could round out the Playoff committee’s initial Top 12 on Tuesday after No. 18 Oklahoma’s 33-27 win over No. 14 Tennessee in Knoxville on Saturday.

While inconsistent since its Week 7 loss to rival Texas, which was unranked at the time but has climbed back into the Top 25, the Sooners have a 2-2 record against current Top 25 teams with two more opportunities ahead against No. 4 Alabama and No. 19 Missouri.

ESPN College Football Playoff bracket projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State