College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 12

With just two weekends of college football left in the regular season, the 2025 College Football Playoff race is red-hot, especially after seven more Top 25 teams — including multiple CFP contenders — went down during a pivotal Week 12. That included a pair of potentially devastating setbacks for SEC powers in last week’s CFP Top 12.

While neither were quite Playoff eliminators, both No. 4 Alabama‘s 23-21 loss to visiting No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 10 Texas‘ 35-10 road drubbing to No. 5 Georgia did serve to further muddy an already crowded Playoff field. Two more of Week 12’s Top 25 defeats — No. 20 Louisville‘s 20-19 loss to Clemson on Friday, and No. 24 South Florida‘s 41-38 loss to Navy — further complicated conference races in both the ACC and American, two leagues facing single-team Playoff bids this season.

Taking those games in mind, ESPN insider Heather Dinich overhauled her projection of how the College Football Playoff selection committee will rank the Top 12 teams when the third CFP Top 25 rankings are released Tuesday evening at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)

The top-ranked Buckeyes continued their domination of the rest of the Big Ten with a 48-10 beating of visiting UCLA on Saturday in Columbus. It was more of the same from reigning national champion Ohio State, which has won 14 straight dating back to last year’s loss to rival Michigan.

Now-former CFP committee chair Mack Rhoades revealed there was “clear consensus in the room” that the Buckeyes were No. 1, highlighting their explosive offensive playmakers. Of course, Ohio State must finish the drill and snap its four-game losing streak in The Game vs. the rival Wolverines in two weeks.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

Much like the Buckeyes, the Big Ten’s Hoosiers hold onto the No. 2 spot with Saturday’s commanding 31-7 win over Wisconsin. Indiana enters its final bye week before closing out the regular season with its Week 14 rivalry game with Purdue.

Dinich points out the Hoosiers have the Playoff committee’s respect as one of college football’s most complete teams this season, especially with the nation’s second-ranked scoring defense and a Top 5 ranking in several other important metrics.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (10-0)

The Aggies needed a 28-0 second-half rally — the program’s largest-ever comeback effort — to edge out three-win South Carolina, 31-30, at home on Saturday to remain undefeated on the season. And while it wasn’t pretty, it should be more than enough to keep Texas A&M in the No. 3 spot.

But, while a Playoff spot is all-but certain at this point, the Aggies must still beat rival Texas on the road to close out the regular season to secure a spot in next month’s SEC Championshp game in Atlanta. Until then, nothing is guaranteed as of yet for A&M.

4. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) — (+1)

The Bulldogs are the first climbers in this week’s CFP Top 12 courtesy of their convincing 35-10 win over the visiting Longhorns on Saturday, coupled with Alabama’s 23-21 home loss to No. 11 Oklahoma. It also puts Georgia in the driver’s seat to defend last year’s SEC Championship in Atlanta at season’s end.

UGA also has the benefit of one of the stronger Playoff resumes around with three Top 25 wins and a chance to add another during Rivalry Weekend against Georgia Tech, which is currently holding a tenuous lead atop a crowded ACC and can clinch a championship game bid next week against Pitt.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1) — (+2)

Rhoades declared the Red Raiders “highly regarded by the (Playoff) committee” last week following complete-game performances against fellow Big 12 contenders BYU and Utah, and has a chance to secure a spot in the conference title game with a win at West Virigina in two weeks.

Dinich expects Texas Tech to stay ahead of Ole Miss in the standings after leapfrogging them last week following its Week 11 win over BYU. And that shouldn’t change this week after the Rebels needed a 14-0 fourth quarter to edge out three-win Florida in Oxford on Saturday.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)

Ole Miss holds onto the No. 6 spot in Dincih’s Top 12, one spot behind the Big 12-leading Red Raiders, despite a lackluster performance in Saturday’s 34-24 comeback win over visiting Florida. The committee made it clear Tech’s current Playoff resume is simply more impressive than the Rebels’.

Still, Ole Miss could get a boost from its Week 9 win over Oklahoma, which will climb in this week’s rankings after knocking off No. 4 Alabama on Saturday. And while a SEC title game bid might be difficult given its loss to Georgia, Ole Miss is all-but assured a Playoff home game with a win over Miss State.

7. Oregon Ducks (9-1) — (+1)

The Ducks rolled over Minnesota, 42-13, on Satuday ahead of Week 13’s Top 25 showdown with USC in Eugene, but should benefit from a sligh boost due to Alabama’s rankings freefall follow its loss to Oklahoma this weekend.

Dinich said Oregon and Ole Miss’ Playoff resumes are being compared favorably to one another, so doesn’t expect any flip-flopping despite the Rebels’ struggles vs. Floriday on Saturday. Though, with the Ducks’ road win over Iowa two weeks ago, another Top 25 win over USC could help their cause next week.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) — (+3)

To little surprise, the biggest climber this week is the Sooners, which secured its third Top 25 win of the season with Saturday’s 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa. In fact, Oklahoma has notched back-to-back Top 25 victories following its win over Tennessee two weeks ago.

Still, the Red River Rivalry loss to Texas looms large, especially after the Longhorns lost their third game of the season Saturday in Athens. Nevertheless, Dinich expects the Sooners to be the committee’s unquestions top two-loss team, just ahead of the team it just beat on the road.

9. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) — (-5)

As expected, the Crimson Tide is this week’s biggest faller following its head-to-head home loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. That setback creates a potential do-or-die Playoff play-in opportunity for Alabama in this year’s Iron Bowl in Auburn, never an easy place to play for the Tide regardless of the year.

Nevertheless, while last year’s loss in Norman ultimately doomed Alabama’s 2024 Playoff chances, the Crimson Tide remains in the thick of the CFP race this season after notching four consecutive Top 25 wins last month. Of course, Dinich didn’t rule out Alabama falling below Notre Dame this week.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2) — (-1)

The Irish are among college football’s hottest teams having won eight straight since opening the season with back-to-back losses to Miami and Texas A&M by a combined four points. And with a convincing 37-15 road win at No. 22 Pitt on Saturday, the committee could boost Notre Dame over Alabama.

Dinich pointed out the respect Rhoades gave the Fighting Irish following last week’s Top 25 rankings reveal, describing them as “a complete team” both offensively and defensively. That said, Notre Dame’s dismal schedule strength could also factor into where it fits among the two-loss contenders.

11. BYU Cougars (9-1) — (+1)

The Cougars bounced back from its loss to Texas Tech by routing TCU, 44-13, on Saturday to remain in the thick of the race to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. And given its previous head-to-head win over Utah, Dinich expects BYU to hold pat at No. 11 in this week’s rankings.

Dinich made it clear, if these were the final CFP rankings, the Cougars would be the first team knocked out of the field for the ACC champion, which is widely expected to finish the season outside the Top 12 rankings, and thus keeping the Big 12 from stealing a second bid.

12. Utah Utes (8-2) — (NR)

Dinich remains high on the Utes, whose only two losses are to fellow Big 12 contenders Texas Tech and BYU, due in large part to the Playoff committee’s respect for Utah. That said, she pointed out this spot could go to a three-loss Texas based on resume alone.

The Utes could also get dinged by No. 25 Cincinnati’s 30-24 loss to unranked Arizona on Saturday, which will likely remove the Bearcats from among Utah’s Top 25 wins this season once they drop out. That said it might not matter with the Playoff’s 12th seed reserved for the top-ranked Group of Five champ.

ESPN College Football Playoff bracket projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Navy (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Navy/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State