College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 3

The College Football Playoff picture won’t be set for certain until selection Sunday. But, ESPN is doing its best to give fans an idea of what’s to come. On Sunday, ESPN released its updated CFP rankings, along with a bracket projection.

ESPN had plenty to consider. Five ranked teams fell this week. Two of those losses were against unranked opponents. With no automatic byes this year for conference champions, every game matters and some teams are already falling behind.

Of course, that also means other squads are getting ahead of the rest of the pack. Let’s examine which teams ESPN believes are separating themselves from their competitors.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

For the second consecutive week, ESPN predicted Ohio State to be the No. 1 overall seed in the upcoming CFP. On Saturday, the Buckeyes routed Ohio, 37-9.

In the win, star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith reeled in nine catches for a team-high 153 yards and a touchdown. Carnell Tate didn’t trail far behind, racking up five catches for 101 yards and a score. The Buckeyes have shown no signs of weakness thus far this season.

2. Miami Hurricanes

With Clemson losing again this weekend, Miami is the clear favorite to win the ACC. The Hurricanes only reinforced their excellence on Saturday with a dominant 49-12 win over No. 18 USF. For reference, USF was coming off a win over Florida in Week 2.

Miami gave USF’s Cinderella story a nightmarish ending, logging 576 total yards of offense against the Bulls. USF had no answers for Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who amassed 120 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries.

3. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia secured its ninth straight win over Tennessee on Saturday. It was a 12-round slugfest between the two teams, but the Bulldogs ultimately emerged with a 44-41 triumph in overtime. It was a statement performance from UGA quarterback Gunner Stockton, who was the subject of many doubters through the first two weeks of the college football season.

In the win, Stockton completed 23-of-his-31 pass attempts for 304 yards and two TDs, without throwing an interception. Additionally, Stockton notched 38 yards and a score in the ground game.

4. LSU Tigers

On Saturday, LSU defeated Florida, 20-10. It was far from a dazzling performance for the Tigers’ offense, which recorded just 10 first downs in the game and punted seven time. LSU’s defense was its saving grace.

The unit forced Florida quarterback DJ Lagway to throw a career-high five interceptions, one of which Dashawn Spears returned 58 yards for a touchdown. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they will be without star linebacker Whit Weeks in the first half of their next game. Weeks was ejected for targeting in the opening minutes of the game.

5. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M turned South Bend into a College Station block party last night after defeating Notre Dame in stunning 41-40 fashion. Fourth-and-goal from the 11-yard line, Aggies QB Marcel Reed completed a game-winning TD pass to Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds remaining in the game.

Although Boerkircher made the biggest catch of the game, no Texas A&M receiver outshined Mario Craver. The sophomore wideout hauled in seven catches for a ridiculous 206 yards and a touchdown.

6. Oregon Ducks

Oregon continued its dominant 2025 campaign with a 34-14 victory over Northwestern on Saturday. In the win, the Ducks were disciplined, committing zero penalties, while squeezing two turnovers out of the Wildcats.

Oregon hasn’t played a ranked opponent yet this season. Alas, the team has steamrolled any team willing to stand in its way. On Sept. 27, fans will get a better understand of just how good the Ducks are when they face off against Penn State.

7. Florida State Seminoles

Florida State enjoyed a well-deserved bye this week after posting two dominant performances to jumpstart its season. Most notably, the Seminoles beat Alabama in convincing 31-17 fashion in Week 1.

It was a satisfying triumph for the Seminoles, who went 2-10 last season. Florida State’s victory only looks more impressive after Alabama blew out Wisconsin 38-14 this weekend. The Seminoles will look to pick up where they left off in Week 4.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State is 3-0 and boasts average margin of victory of 38.3 points per game. Nonetheless, ESPN isn’t convinced the Nittany Lions are the kings of the jungle. ESPN’s hesitancy to rank Penn State higher is largely due to the team’s weak non-conference schedule.

Moreover, while Penn State has dominated its opponents, Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar hasn’t exactly wowed experts. Through three games, Allar has only thrown four touchdowns. He’ll have to step up his game if Penn State wants to be considered a CFP threat.

9. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma allow itself to get too high on its own fumes after defeating Michigan 24-13 in Week 2. Instead, the Sooners kept their noses to the grindstone, dominating Temple 42-3. In the win, quarterback John Mateer was spectacular, as usual.

Mateer threw for 282 yards and a touchdown against the Owls. He also rushed for 63 yards and another score. Oklahoma’s defense limited Temple to a minuscule 105 yards of total offense. Temple finished the game with just seven first downs.

10. Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee suffered its first loss of the season on Saturday, but it proved it belongs in the CFP conversation. The Volunteers were a field goal away from downing the Bulldogs, and showed plenty of promise throughout the grueling bout.

Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar particularly shined, completing 24-of-his-36 pass attempts for 371 yards and four touchdowns, compared to two interceptions. Volunteers WR Chris Brazzell was nearly unstoppable, tallying 177 yards and three scores.

11. Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois is quietly shaping up to be a dark horse in the Big Ten. The Fighting Illini added to their résumé this weekend with a 38-0 shellacking of Western Michigan. Illinois turned it on in the second half, after a sluggish start to the game.

Illinois’ defense only allowed 91 passing yards. On the other side of the ball, Fighting Illini QB Luke Altmyer recorded 196 passing yards and two touchdowns, while throwing no interceptions.

12. Texas Longhorns

Although Texas remains in the CFP conversation, questions surround QB Arch Manning. The redshirt sophomore completed just 5-of-16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards and was booed after throwing an interception in the red zone.

He finished the outing with only 114 passing yards and a touchdown. However, he was stellar in the ground game, logging 51 rushing yards and two scores. Manning will have to be more consistent in the pocket, if the Longhorns want to return to the CFP for the third season in a row.

ESPN’s CFP Bracket Projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State