College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 9

The official 2025 debut of the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings is a week away from Tuesday. But in the meantime, ESPN‘s Heather Dinich came through once again with her projection of how the CFP selection committee would likely rank the Top 12 teams in college football through Week 9.

While the Week 9 slate didn’t necessarily provide some of the wild Top 25 losses of the prior few weeks, it still saw five ranked teams go down, including a power shift in the SEC after No. 10 Vanderbilt knocked off visiting No. 15 Missouri 17-10 on Saturday. The ‘Dores appear to be for real and Dinich expects the CFP selection committee will also be on board with next week’s, so long as Vanderbilt takes care of business at No. 22 Texas next Saturday.

Week 9 also included a shake up in the American Conference after unranked Memphis beat No. 18 South Florida 34-31 on Saturday that is sure to impact the 12th and final Playoff seed. Of course, with a month remaining in the regular season, a lot can still happen that will only further complicate 2025’s eventual 12-team College Football Playoff field.

In the meantime, check out ESPN’s updated College Football Playoff Top 12 ranking after Week 9:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

The top-ranked Buckeyes continue to hold down the top spot while on bye this weekend thanks to its total domination of its opposition so far this season. That includes ranking No. 1 nationally in both total efficiency and defensive efficiency, and sixth in offensive efficiency, according to ESPN’s analytics.

That said, Dinich made clear the Hoosiers are putting together their own impressive resume, and could eventually challenge Ohio State for the top spot in the committee’s mind. Of course, the Buckeyes can simply take it out of the committee’s hands by winning out, including at No. 25 Michigan in The Game.

2. Indiana Hoosiers

Dinich was impressed by how the Hoosiers blew out a “recharged” UCLA, 56-6, on Saturday, and seems poised to run the table with no other ranked games before what’s shaping out to be a 1-vs.-2 matchup for the Big Ten championship against Ohio State.

Indiana holds the ultimate trump card with its impressive 30-20 road win at Oregon, which Dinich described as “the best win in the country” so far this season, and that could loom large when the CFP selection committee sits down in Grapevine, Texas to evaluate its first Top 25 in a week.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Nick Saban might be gone, but the Crimson Tide dynasty is still going strong after escaping Columbia with a hard-fought 29-22 road win over South Carolina for its seventh consecutive victory since the season-opening loss at unranked Florida State.

Despite that setback, Dinich still expects the CFP selection committee to view Alabama as its top one-loss team and could even rank it ahead of Texas A&M based on the Tide’s 4-0 mark against current Top 25 teams. Meanwhile, the undefeated Aggies have just two Top 25 wins, including Saturday at No. 20 LSU.

4. Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday night’s dominating 49-25 win over No. 20 LSU — in Death Valley — was a statement win for the Aggies, and gives Texas A&M two of the more impressive road wins of the season after eking out a 41-40 win over No. 12 Notre Dame in Week 2.

The Aggies currently holds ESPN’s No. 1 strength of record metric, which the CFP selection committee will place a greater focus on this season, and will be in the aided by its success on the road. But that will have to continue next month at No. 15 Missouri and in Austin at No. 22 Texas to really make its case.

5. Georgia Bulldogs

Dinich keeps the Bulldogs at No. 5 despite being on bye this weekend in large part due to what Ole Miss did Saturday at Oklahoma, further strengthening Georgia’s CFP resume after knocking off the then-No. 5 Rebels 43-35 in Athens two weeks ago.

The Bulldogs start November with Saturday’s “Cocktail Party” in Jacksonville against head coachless Florida, but close out the month with two opportunities to impress the CFP committee — a Nov. 15 home game vs. No. 22 Texas and a neutral site game vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Rivalry Weekend.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (+1)

The aforementioned Rebels bounced back nicely from its first loss of the season to secure Lane Kiffin’s first Top 25 road win with Saturday’s 34-26 victory at No. 13 Oklahoma. And with no more ranked games ahead on its schedule, it all-but secured Ole Miss its first-ever Playoff bid.

That said, the road loss to Georgia two weeks ago — while as good of a loss as one can have — will still keep the Rebels out of the SEC Championship conversation so long as Alabama wins out. In the meantime, Ole Miss is in the driver’s seat for a Playoff spot and a first-round home game.

7. Miami Hurricanes (-1)

It wasn’t always pretty, but the Hurricanes more than bounced back from its first loss of the season last Friday with a 42-7 rout a sub-.500 UCLA squad on Saturday. It keeps Miami in the thick of both the ACC championship race and the Playoff chase, even if it will need help to make it to Charlotte.

That Oct. 17 loss to Louisville will loom large as long as the Cardinals continue to win out, but the Hurricanes still maintain control of their own destiny, especially when it comes to the CFP. That said, Dinich makes it clear other Playoff contenders have more opportunties to impress down the stretch.

8. Oregon Ducks

While not the most impressive showing, the Ducks simply continue to get it done after escaping Saturday’s 21-7 home win over a struggling Wisconsin. It was Oregon’s second straight Big Ten win after coming up short in a 30-20 loss to Indiana earlier this month.

That said, the Ducks enter this week’s bye with no more ranked games ahead on its remaining schedule, meaning the opportunities to impress the committee might be hard to come by. And given more impressive resumes for other Playoff contenders, Dinich cautioned Oregon could get dinged next week.

9. Vanderbilt Commodores (NR)

One of those potential Playoff contenders that could surprise in the CFP’s initial Top 25 reveal next week is Vanderbilt, which has become college football’s sweetheart after back-to-back Top 15 wins against No. 10 LSU and No. 15 Missouri the past two weekends.

Dinich pointed out those ranked victories, especially if combined with another potential win Saturday at No. 22 Texas, could be enough to catch the attention of the CFP selection committee and earn the Commodores some serious Playoff love in next week’s Top 25 release.

10. BYU Cougars (+1)

Despite less-than-impressive analytics, including ESPN’s 60th-ranked strength of schedule metric, the undefeated Cougars remain in the thick of both the Big 12 title race and the league’s leading Playoff contender after beating Iowa State 41-27 on the road Saturday.

Still, Dinich makes it clear BYU must continue to win out — or at least split upcoming Big 12 road games at No. 14 Texas Tech and No. 21 Cinicinnati — if the Cougars are going to keep their Playoff hopes alive given the detrimental analytics working against them.

11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-1)

The undefeated Yellow Jackets face a similar situation to BYU with unfavorable analytic metrics and a Playoff resume that’s lacking any head-turning Top 25 wins. In fact, unless Georgia Tech can snap its seven-game losing streak vs. rival Georgia, it could end the regular season with no Top 25 wins.

And given its porous Playoff resume, Dinich suggested the Yellow Jackets might need to not only sweep ACC play but also win the ACC Championship in Charlotte to guarantee themselves a spot in the 12-team field at the end of the year.

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The 12th spot in the CFP rankings could once again be a controversial one with the Playoff’s Group of Five bid looming large, especially if the Fighting Irish continue to win out and prove themselves to be college football’s best two-loss team.

Notre Dame still must get past an undefeated Navy — which is currently leading the American Conference race and thus the a potential CFP bid-stealer — on Nov. 8, but the Irish’s road back to the Playoffs is made muddier by the fact that it doesn’t have a conference title game to punch its ticket outright.

ESPN College Football Playoff bracket projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State