College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects penultimate CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 14

With the conclusion of Saturday’s Week 14 games, which includes multiple Top 25 surprises such as No. 16 Texas handing rival No. 3 Texas A&M its first loss, college football’s 2025 regular season is officially in the books. Now all that’s left is Championship Week and the College Football Playoffs.

But first, the CFP selection committee will unveil its penultimate Top 25 rankings on Tuesday night, providing the college football world a look at how the 2025 College Football Playoff could shake out before conferences championships are decided this upcoming Friday and Saturday.

Before that, though, ESPN insider Heather Dinich delivered an updated sneak peak of how the CFP’s Top 12 will look entering Championship Weekend. Check out Dinich’s updated Top 12 and CFP bracket projection below:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)

Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day finally got the Michigan monkey off his back with a convincing 27-9 rout of the 15th-ranked Wolverines on Saturday in Ann Arbor.

The victory snapped Ohio State’s four-game losing streak in The Game and clinched a spot in this weekend’s Big Ten Championship Game which will feature a rare 1 vs. 2 matchup with Indiana. The Buckeyes hold college football’s longest winning streak at 16 games dating back to last year’s CFP.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (12-0)

The Hoosiers continued their absolute domination with Black Friday’s 56-3 rout of in-state rival Purdue, and finish the regular season as one of just two Power Four undefeateds — the other being Ohio State.

That victory secured Indiana a date with the Buckeyes on Saturday in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship. Given its regular-season win over Oregon, it’s unlikely the Hoosiers would fall out of the Top 4 even with a loss in the Big Ten title game, meaning both teams likely also secured first-round byes.

3. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) — (+1)

The Bulldogs, which beat rival Georgia Tech 16-9 earlier on Friday, should benefit from Texas A&M’s Friday night loss to rival Texas with a slight bump in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.

With the Aggies’ loss, Georgia locked up its fifth consecutive appearance in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta with an opportunity to not only defend last year’s title but also avenge its only regular-season loss in a rematch vs. No. 10 Alabama, which handed the ‘Dawgs a 24-21 home loss on Sept. 27.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1) — (+1)

The Red Raiders also get a slight bump in the rankings courtesy of A&M’s loss after punching its ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game following its 49-0 rout of host West Virginia on Saturday.

The one flaw on Texas Tech’s Playoff resume is its porous No. 57-ranked strength of schedule, meaning it must win the Big 12 title Saturday against BYU to secure a first-round bye. Of course, a loss to the Cougars could give the Big 12 two Playoff bids and create chaos for the rest of the Power Four.

5. Oregon Ducks (11-1) — (+2)

The Ducks leapfrogged an idle Ole Miss in last week’s CFP Top 25 following its convicing Week 13 win over a ranked USC and and should move up again after the Aggies’ loss.

And while it won’t get the opportunity to defend last year’s Big Ten title, Oregon remains in perfect position to lock up the Playoff’s coveted fifth seed given its 30-20 setback vs. Indiana on Oct. 11 remains one of the best losses among the current crop of one-loss Playoff contenders.

6. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1) — (-3)

Friday night’s road loss in Austin was especially costly for the Aggies, knocking them out of the SEC Championship Game and the chance at a first-round bye. Thankfully, it won’t cost them a Playoff spot.

That said, Texas A&M remains in prime position to secure a first-round home Playoff game and has one of the best overall resumes among the current crop of one-loss contenders, especially with its regular-season win over Notre Dame in Week 2.

7. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1) — (-1)

Lane Kiffin is reportedly headed out the door and Baton Rouge-bound to take over at LSU, and he’s allegedly burning every bridge out the door, including taking much of the Rebels offensive staff with him.

That certainly doesn’t bode well for No. 7 Ole Miss and it’s pending Playoff seed. While the one-loss Rebels should remain ahead of Oklahoma this week given their regular-season win, Dinich suggested Ole Miss could still “dinged a spot or two” and potentially go from hosting to traveling in the first round.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)

The Sooners closed out the regular season with a 17-13 win over LSU on Saturday to return to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019.

Still, what seed Oklahoma secures remains up in the air, and likely will depend on what happens to the teams around them with championship games still left to play. That includes No. 10 Alabama, which could get a nice boost with another SEC Championship win over Georgia in Atlanta.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)

Outside of the two undefeateds, no team is hotter than the Fighting Irish, which have won 10 straight since opening the regular season with back-to-back losses to Miami and Texas A&M.

And while the Notre Dame-Miami debate will rage on, the CFP selection committee has made it clear it favors the Irish in that conversation. That said, Dinich makes it clear Notre Dame is hardly a Playoff lock at this point, especially if Alabama or BYU win the SEC and Big 12, respectively.

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)

Facing a must-win situation in Saturday’s Iron Bowl, the Crimson Tide did what it had to do to secure a spot in this weekend’s SEC Championship Game with a sixth-straight win over rival Auburn.

That said, Alabama’s Playoff chances could rest on how it fares against No. 4 Georgia in Atlanta. While the Tide have one of the top Playoff resumes — which would only be strengthened with another win over the ‘Dawgs — a loss on Saturday could create a chaos scenario, especially if BYU wins the Big 12.

11. BYU Cougars (11-1)

The Cougars have an opportunity to avenge its lone loss of the season in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship game against the fourth-ranked Red Raiders, which won the first meeting 29-7 in early November.

Saturday’s Big 12 title game is effectively a play-in opportunity for BYU, which must win in order to remain in the Playoff mix. Anything other than a Big 12 championship could mean the Cougars will find themselves on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.

12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) — (+1)

With no games remaining after failing to make the ACC title game, the Hurricanes are effectively a place-holder here, even if the CFP committee gives Miami a boost after Saturday’s 38-7 win at No. 22 Pitt.

In fact, if the ‘Canes continue to find themselves outside the Top 10, and unless there’s absolute chaos around them, they would still likely be bumped out of the 12-team field in favor of either the ACC champion or the top-ranked Group of Five champion.

ESPN College Football Playoff bracket projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State