David Pollack makes pick for Iowa at USC

David Pollack didn’t hesitate when breaking down one of the most intriguing games of the weekend — No. 17 USC hosting No. 21 Iowa. He made it clear on the See Ball Get Ball Podcast that the matchup hinges on one question: Have the Trojans finally developed the defensive physicality Lincoln Riley has lacked for years?

“USC is still very much alive,” Pollack said. “All the hate, all the vitriol coming into the season with Lincoln Riley, they’re right there in the mix to go make a playoff push. Can they stop the physicality of Iowa? Can they stop the run game? What we’ve been knocking you on for years is about to come to fruition.”

Pollack emphasized that USC’s identity under Riley is well-established on the offensive side of the ball: “We’ve known you can score. We’ve known you’ve been the king of counters. We’ve known you’re the king of two backfield sets and shallow screens and all — we can go on and on about Lincoln Riley,” he said. “We needed you to make a change on defense and bring some physicality to the defensive line. You’re going to be tested by Iowa.”

For Pollack, it seems like this matchup presents the ultimate litmus test: “Do you man the freak up? Can you step up? Can you stop the run? Can you stop a team that can’t throw the football? They can’t throw the football,” he added.

Alas, Iowa enters averaging 175.9 rushing yards per game, one of the best totals in the Big Ten, while USC’s defense has allowed 141.7 rushing yards per game, a glaring weakness that has plagued Riley’s teams. And while Iowa’s offense remains one-dimensional, their defense and run-heavy style traditionally give more finesse-heavy teams trouble.

But Pollack thinks location completely flips the script: “This game is absolutely a Hawkeye dub 99/100 times if this game is in Iowa City right now. USC would be freezing their absolute tatas off,” he said. “To come to Iowa City, those Southern California boys, they would absolutely lose this football game. Iowa going to USC, different animal. USC takes care of business. They’ll win by two touchdowns.”

Regardless, Saturday’s matchup at the Coliseum features two Big Ten teams still fighting for a path to the College Football Playoff. USC rolls in riding momentum after a big win against Northwestern, armed with the conference’s most explosive offense — 503.2 yards per game, second nationally behind Tennessee. Their 39.6 points per game trails only Indiana in conference scoring.

Iowa, meanwhile, is coming off a bruising battle with No. 8 Oregon and must regroup on the road. Their defense remains elite, allowing just 250.2 yards per game, but their offensive limitations put enormous pressure on their ability to run the ball effectively.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network, with both programs eyeing not just conference positioning but the slim possibility of sneaking into the CFP discussion. According to Pollack though, the Trojans’ firepower, and home-field advantage, should be the difference.