Notre Dame vs. Duke odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Irish, Blue Devils

Duke will look to bounce back from their disappointing loss on Saturday to rival North Carolina, and may have a strong chance to do so as they host Notre Dame on Wednesday night.

The Blue Devils’ loss represented just their third versus an ACC opponent on the season, still boasting a 16-5 overall record and a No. 9 ranking in the AP Top 25 Poll. While Notre Dame currently sits at the bottom of the ACC standings with a 2-9 record in conference play, recently coming off of six straight losses ahead of their latest matchup.

Both teams will be desperate for a win for different reasons in Wednesday night’s ACC showdown, and before the game, here’s everything you’ll need to know ahead of the action.

Odds for Notre Dame vs. Duke

Ahead of Wednesday night’s game, Duke is a heavy 16.5-point favorite at home versus Notre Dame according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Blue Devils are also currently sitting at -2800 odds to win outright while the Fighting Irish currently sit at +1160 for the moneyline, providing betters with a nice payout if Notre Dame finds a way to win outright in the upset.

The point total for the game is also sitting at an over-under of 133.5, with Duke notably posting a 12-9 versus the over-under and Notre Dame averaging the least points per game in the ACC this season.

Final score predictions for Notre Dame vs. Duke

BPI Predicted winner: Duke
BPI Predicted point differential: 22.2
BPI Win probability (for Duke): 97.4 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 64.8

ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) agrees with FanDuel’s odds for Notre Dame vs. Duke’s Wednesday’s matchup, but predicts an even stronger showing for the Blue Devils. Predicting a blowout 22.2-point win margin for Duke while also giving them a strong 97.4% of defending their home court.

The BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success, also giving the ACC showdown a matchup quality score of 64.8, which is not very strong. Tabbing the Notre Dame-Duke matchup as the 16th best game across college basketball on Wednesday’s slate.

KenPom Predicted final score: Duke 75, Notre Dame 58
KenPom Win probability (for Duke): 94 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball, designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

Like ESPN’s BPI and FanDuel, KenPom also predicts a lopsided Duke win over Notre Dame in Cameron Indoor, giving Duke a lofty a 94% chance of winning the matchup and securing their 11th win over the Fighting Irish in their last 12 meetings.

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Duke

Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ACC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Durham (NC)

Duke will look to keep defending their home court well this season, suffering just two losses in Cameron Indoor Stadium. And while ACC Preseason Player of the Year Kyle Filipowski is the team’s headliner, true freshman Jared McCain has been breaking out as of late, leading the Blue Devils in scoring in three of their last four games with 20 or more points in each of those outing.

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When it comes to the Fighting Irish, Duke will definitely have to keep their focus on Notre Dame’s respective breakout freshman Markus Burton. Who currently leads the team in points, assists, and steals per game, also having 18 points in his last outing against Duke.