Examining the win totals in the Big Ten for 2026

It isn’t nearly as easy to predict Big Ten records as it was a few years ago, and that’s a great sign for the conference.

Before, we’d pencil in wins for Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State against almost every team but one another. Now, Oregon, USC and Washington have added significant spice to the schedules. Indiana has become a national power. Iowa’s continued toughness makes the Hawkeyes a tricky pick when they face the top teams in the league.

That makes for far more entertaining games, but it makes it much tougher to predict season records. BetMGM oddsmakers were pretty cautious with the lower-expectation Big Ten teams. Michigan State and Purdue have such a low total (3.5) that even if they have terrible seasons, a fluky result could push them over. 

Over means mere bowl eligibility at Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern and Rutgers. That probably feels disrespectful to Golden Gophers and Cornhuskers fans, but the book is trying to make money — not pump offseason sunshine. 

But with so many modest totals up and down the conference, it’s tough to pinpoint any obvious unders. There are three potential overs that stick out, though.

Totals that seem off

Ohio State: 9.5
Yes, Ohio State finally is playing a truly challenging regular-season schedule after so many pre-expansion years of the Penn State and Michigan games mattering more than the other 10 games combined. The Buckeyes play at Texas in Week 2, and their Big Ten draw includes road games at Iowa and USC and home games against Illinois, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan.

But that doesn’t mean we should assume the Buckeyes will suddenly drop three regular-season games. The last time that happened was 2011, when Luke Fickell served as the interim coach between the ouster of Jim Tressel and the hire of Urban Meyer. 

It’s great for the sport that Ohio State will play more competitive games throughout the season. The Buckeyes are still talented enough to manage that schedule, though.
The pick: Over

Iowa: 7.5
In the last 10 non-pandemic seasons, Iowa has won at least eight regular-season games eight times. The two times they fell short resulted in seven-win seasons (2017 and 2022) in which head coach Kirk Ferentz’s son Brian ran the offense.

In other words, it’s not safe to bet that Iowa will lose five regular-season games. This is especially true now that Matt Campbell is coaching a conference rival Iowa doesn’t face this season (Penn State) rather than an out-of-conference rival (Iowa State) that Iowa plays every year.

The schedule is challenging — particularly the three-week stretch featuring games at Michigan, home against Ohio State and at Washington — but Iowa has shown throughout the years that elite defense and special teams tend to be recession-proof.

The offense still needs to get better for the Hawkeyes to take the next step and become a College Football Playoff team, but that doesn’t necessarily have to happen for Iowa to hit the Over.
The pick: Over

Minnesota: 5.5
P.J. Fleck’s team has won at least six games in six of eight non-pandemic seasons, and even though this schedule features a six-week stretch that includes games against Washington, Michigan, Iowa and Indiana, the Gophers seem plenty capable of reaching bowl eligibility.

The loss of safety Koi Perich to Oregon made the biggest headlines, but Minnesota kept pretty much every other impact player. If the Gophers can get a healthy season out of tailback Darius Taylor and QB Drake Lindsey improves in his second year as the starter, Minnesota should hit this Over.
The pick: Over

Totals that are too early to call

Illinois: 7.5
Coach Bret Bielema’s team won 19 games the past two seasons — 17 in the regular season — and Bielema seems to have found a formula that works. The Illini don’t use the portal for a lot of splashy additions, but they do make sure they keep their best players. 

For example, Illinois developed cornerback Xavier Scott and safety Matt Bailey, and they’re both still in Champaign. East Carolina transfer Katin Houser will try to replace Luke Altmyer as QB1, and Houser seems like a good fit for Illinois’ culture. 

This isn’t an auto-Over like Iowa because the track record isn’t as long, but Illinois should be good again. 

Indiana: 10.5
This is a sign of respect for the Hoosiers, who started last season with an 8.5-win total after going 11-1 in the 2024 regular season. In fact, a time traveler from 2023 would be gobsmacked by the idea of Indiana having such a high win total in a season with Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington on the schedule.

One reason the total is high is the Hoosiers have one of the easier on-paper draws in the Big Ten. The other is no one wants to underestimate Curt Cignetti again.

Indiana returns some key players from the national title team (OT Carter Smith, WR Charlie Becker and DL Tyrique Tucker) and adds some major transfer firepower in QB Josh Hoover (TCU), receiver Nick Marsh (Michigan State) and OG Joe Brunner (Wisconsin). Still, 11 wins is a lot to expect after losing so much talent — even for the coach who keeps surpassing our expectations.

You know you’ve arrived as a program when you can go Under and still make the playoff for a third consecutive season.

Maryland: 4.5
Terrapins coach Mike Locksley was frustrated late in the 2024 season because he knew someone was going to poach QB Billy Edwards Jr. After a solid freshman season from Malik Washington in 2025, Locksley kept his QB1.

That likely happened because instead of firing Locksley, Maryland’s administration decided to give him another shot but with more resources to fund the roster. 

The Terps won their first four and lost their last eight last year. The slide began with gut-punch losses to Washington and Nebraska, which Maryland led in the fourth quarter. If the roster is better — and it should be — Maryland should be more competitive down the stretch this season. 

Michigan: 8.5
Michigan won nine games last season despite everything going on behind the scenes that eventually led to the firing of Sherrone Moore. With Kyle Whittingham now in place, the Wolverines should be even better and QB Bryce Underwood should take a big step forward.

So why not smash the Over? Because the schedule levels up as well. Michigan plays Oklahoma in week two and Big Ten play includes games against Iowa, Penn State and Indiana at home and Oregon and Ohio State on the road.

The Wolverines could be better but wind up with a worse record. 

Michigan State: 3.5
The bookmakers seem to have little faith in new coach Pat Fitzgerald to turn around the Spartans quickly after a 4-8 season that got former coach Jonathan Smith fired.

Alessio Milivojevic took the starting QB job from Aidan Chiles last season and looked promising. But the question is whether Fitzgerald can instill a winning culture in a roster that lost some of its best players to the portal.

Fitzgerald won consistently for most of his career at Northwestern, but he went 4-20 his last two seasons (which followed the start of the NIL era). He needs to prove he can adapt to win in this era.

Nebraska: 6.5
This number has to frustrate Nebraska fans, who finally saw their team crack six regular-season wins in two consecutive seasons for the first time since 2013 and 2014. The hope is that the Cornhuskers will take another step forward in coach Matt Rhule’s fourth season, but this number suggests a step back from last year’s seven-win season.

The reason for skepticism is the loss of QB Dylan Raiola — who broke his leg last season against USC — to be Oregon’s backup. Nebraska planned to replace Raiola with Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey, but Minchey flipped to Kentucky before signing in Lincoln. 

The Cornhuskers pivoted to Anthony Colandrea, who improved under Dan Mullen at UNLV after a boom-or-bust early career at Virginia.

The non-conference schedule is easy by design, so this number suggests Nebraska will struggle in Big Ten play. Indiana, Oregon, Washington, Ohio State and Iowa will be tough for anyone. To go over, Nebraska will have to prove it hasn’t fallen behind the likes of Michigan State, Maryland and Rutgers. We should know after the Cornhuskers play the Spartans and Terps on Sept. 26 and Oct. 3 what to expect the rest of the way.

Northwestern: 5.5
Given the circumstances he inherited, David Braun has overachieved in his first three seasons at Northwestern. Now the Wildcats are about to open a beautiful new stadium, and they have one of the most accomplished playcallers in recent college football history (Chip Kelly) running the offense.

Aidan Chiles transferred from Michigan State to run Kelly’s offense. He’ll be working alongside QBs coach Jerry Neuheisel, who helped UCLA improve last year when he was named interim offensive coordinator following the firing of head coach DeShaun Foster.

All of these circumstances scream Over, but the schedule is the reason to stay away from the number. Early Big Ten games include Indiana and Penn State, and the Wildcats have a three-week stretch that sandwiches a home game against Iowa between visits to Oregon and Ohio State. Plus, four of Northwestern’s final five games are on the road.

Oregon: 10.5
The Ducks play a challenging schedule, but this total is a sign of respect for what might be the nation’s most loaded roster. QB Dante Moore returns, and he’ll be throwing to a star-studded group. Plus, Oregon’s defense is deep and experienced. And where the Ducks lost a star (safety Dillon Thieneman), they went into the portal and found a more-than-suitable replacement (Minnesota’s Perich).

With trips to USC and Ohio State and late home games against Michigan and Wisconsin, it’s still tricky to predict at least 11 wins. But it feels safe predicting a third consecutive playoff berth because the Ducks probably don’t even need to hit the Over to make the CFP.

Penn State: 9.5
Penn State got the kindest schedule draw in the Big Ten. Consecutive games against USC and Michigan in October probably will define the Nittany Lions’ first season under Matt Campbell. 

The only reason this isn’t an instant Over is the uncertainty about a new coaching staff. The uncharacteristic inconsistency that cost James Franklin the job last season needs to be fixed. Campbell should be able to do that after many of his best Iowa State players — including QB Rocco Becht — followed him to State College. 

Purdue: 3.5
With non-conference games against Wake Forest and Notre Dame on top of a medium-strength Big Ten schedule, I was tempted to declare this an Under.

But the number is so low, and Barry Odom tends to produce tough teams that keep fighting. The Boilermakers could pull off a surprise or two.

Rutgers: 4.5
The Scarlet Knights are a perfect example of why some of these numbers are so tricky. Rutgers going Over likely means Maryland or Northwestern or Wisconsin gets pushed Under, and with all the roster turnover in this era, it’s nearly impossible to predict which of these teams will click.

Are the Scarlet Knights significantly better than last year’s 5-7 team? That’s unclear. But they only have to match to go Over.

UCLA: 5.5
I almost declared UCLA an Over as a vote of confidence for new coach Bob Chesney, who has won in Division III, Division II, the FCS and the FBS. Last season, Chesney took James Madison to the CFP. 

UCLA brings back QB Nico Iamaleava for his third season as a power conference starter. The Bruins added receivers Aidan Mizell (Florida) and Semaj Morgan (Michigan) to provide some speed and playmaking ability in space. 

The schedule isn’t easy, though. Cal is a tough non-conference opener. Oregon, Illinois, Michigan and USC likely will be favored. The Bruins will need to win those swing games against the likes of Wisconsin and Minnesota to have a successful Year 1 under Chesney.

USC: 8.5
USC fans looked at this total and probably said something to the tune of “Lincoln Riley had better hit this Over.” And it’s a fair expectation. The Trojans won nine games last year, and Riley has now gone four seasons at USC without making the CFP. Just winning nine might not be enough to keep everyone happy.

But winning nine (or more) will be a challenge even though USC brings back QB Jayden Maiava and injects a No. 1 recruiting class. There is a reason USC didn’t want to continue the Notre Dame series as it was normally scheduled. Even after swapping the Fighting Irish for San Jose State, the schedule remains gnarly because of the Big Ten draw.

The visit from Oregon on Sept. 26 should let us know whether USC is capable of competing for a CFP berth (even if the Trojans don’t win). The visit from Washington the following week is an example of a game USC has to win if the Trojans want to take the next step.

Washington: 7.5
Jedd Fisch seems supremely confident after keeping QB Demond Williams — despite 48 hours of drama in January — and a significant chunk of a roster that won eight regular-season games last season. This feels like a program that expects to make the jump back to CFP contention now. That’s not unreasonable. Three years ago, the Huskies were gearing up for a run to the national title game under Kalen DeBoer. 

But I’m not assuming an Over — though I think this total is a touch low — because of the way Washington’s schedule breaks. The Huskies play USC and Iowa in consecutive weeks in October, and November includes games against Penn State, Indiana and Oregon. Much will depend on how well Washington manages the body blows as the season progresses.

Wisconsin: 6.5
While this number probably still infuriates Wisconsin fans who grew accustomed to 10-win seasons in the 2010s, it actually represents a small vote of confidence that Luke Fickell can turn the program around.

Things looked awfully bleak last year before late-season wins against Washington and Illinois provided some hope. Those came around the same time Wisconsin’s administration committed to bringing back Fickell and providing more money for the roster.

Based on conversations with player agents, the Badgers did have more money to spend this offseason. They landed QB Colton Joseph (Old Dominion) and RB Abu Sama III (Iowa State) in the portal. They also used the portal to shore up their defensive line and secondary around homegrown linebackers Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano, who led the Badgers in tackles as freshmen in 2025.

Wisconsin got one of the kinder draws from the Big Ten office, but opening with Notre Dame at Lambeau Field ratchets up the difficulty. If Fickell is the long-term solution in Madison, he’ll prove it this season and go Over in the process. But that remains a question.