Friday Pick-Six: Week 4 best bets in Colorado-Oregon, Ole Miss-Alabama, Ohio State-Notre Dame
Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour.
We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)
I whiffed on a pair of road favorites — Tennessee (-6.5) and Kansas State (-3.5) — last week, but still managed to go 3-2 for the week to sit at 8-6-1 for the season. My Upset Du Jour is 1-2 after Purdue’s stinker against Syracuse.
Saturday is might be college football’s 2023 Christmas so with many great games.
Let’s make some picks. (All point spreads come from FanDuel).
No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama (-7)
What’s W’s famed quote?
“Fool me once. Shame on you. Fool me twice … Fool me … you can’t get fooled again.”
Or can you?
I know Ole Miss has the better quarterback, tailback and offensive play-caller. I know the Tide are in turmoil offensively. But this is a see-it-to-believe-it deal for me. Is Nick Saban really going to lose twice before October? Is Lane Kiffin actually going to troll Saban all week and then beat his mentor — giving him his first road conference win over a Top 25 team since 2011?
I was dead wrong about Texas-Alabama. And the Rebels certainly could cover, but I think the Crimson Tide’s defense shows up.
PICK: Alabama -7
No. 19 Colorado at No. 10 Oregon (-21)
The Buffs allowed nearly 400 yards passing to Colorado State and now must face an Oregon attack without its best cornerback in Travis Hunter.
With Bo Nix calmly picking apart opposing defenses, the Ducks rank 5th nationally in passing, as Nix has completed 78% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception. Oregon (along with Penn State) is one of two teams without a single turnover all season.
I expect Shedeur Sanders to match fireworks for a couple of series before Oregon’s defensive line starts to hound Colorado’s spotty OL. It’s a big number, and what Deion Sanders has done with Colorado has been awesome thus far, but this is a bad matchup — especially without Hunter.
PICK: Oregon -21
No. 22 UCLA at No. 11 Utah (-6)
The Utes have won 16 straight games at Rice-Eccles Stadium, and they’re looking for a little revenge against the Bruins after Chip Kelly & Co., upset a Top 10 Utah 42-32 last season. It seems like star quarterback Cam Rising will make his 2023 debut, but you’re never really sure about injuries with a Kyle Whittingham team. Even if Rising is back, Utah will likely be down a trio of rotational defensive linemen (including their top two players) and standout tight end Brent Kuthie.
Still, they’re the more battle-tested team (the win vs. Florida looks more impressive certainly) who has found ways to win with multiple backup QBs. Meanwhile, 5-star freshman Dante Moore will be making his first-career road start in a supremely hostile environment against a solid pass defense (6.5 yards per attempt allowed).
And yet, the Bruins are a wagon running the ball, grinding opponents into the dirt with the 1-2 punch of T.J. Harden and Ball State transfer Carson Steele. I don’t know if they end Utah’s home winning streak but UCLA stays within the number.
PICK: UCLA +6
No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame (+3)
I’m fascinated to watch this game because I truly have no idea how it will go — which is a revelation for the Irish in big games against Top 5 teams. The only outcome I can’t see happening Saturday night is a Notre Dame blowout win. I think Ohio State has too much firepower — on both sides of the ball for that to happen.
But with Sam Hartman, Audric Estime and a fast, tenacious defense, a close Notre Dame win? Yes. A tough, tight loss? Sure. An Ohio State rout? I can’t rule that out with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka’s home run potential.
Ultimately, I think this is a game decided by a kick late, so give me the points.
PICK: Notre Dame +3
Arkansas at No. 12 LSU (17.5)
Let’s see: Arkansas is reeling a bit after massively out-gaining BYU only to lose at home right before a gauntlet SEC schedule starts and now must go on the road to play at Tiger Stadium at night?
Against an LSU squad that seem to flex its true potential on the road at Mississippi State last weekend? I know Sam Pittman and the Hogs nearly upset the Tigers with a backup quarterback last season, but that’s not going to happen Saturday.
Rocket Sanders is questionable, leaving KJ Jefferson even more vulnerable against Harold Perkins (who single-handily won the game for LSU against Arkansas in 2022), Maason Smith and Mekhi Wingo. Jayden Daniels was awesome against the Bulldogs and now gets to stunt at home.
PICK: LSU -17.5
Upset Du Jour
No. 14 Oregon State at No. 21 Washington State (+3)
I’m going back to Pullman for another upset special. In the Battle of the Abandoned, the two Pac-12 castoffs will play for the right to claim the 2-Pac banana — the new symbol for their new league.
Oregon State’s defense is awesome, and DJ Uiagalelei, last weekend’s game notwithstanding, looks like an upgrade at QB. But I’m riding with Wazzu again.
They’re a bit more tested (win over Wisconsin > a win over San Diego State). They’re at home. Give me Cameron Ward, under the lights, running around making plays.
PICK: Washington State +3