NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology ahead of 2025-2026 season

College basketball is less than a week from tipping off, with the season set to begin with an all-day slate on November 3rd. With that, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released the final offseason update to Bracketology.

Lunardi posted that new-look projection on Tuesday morning. That’s amidst some notable results over the past week or so in big-time exhibitions being played in the preseason going into the season’s start next week.

As for the conferences, the SEC and Big Ten are tied with the most berths in the bracket with 11 apiece. The Big 12 then has eight, the ACC and Big East have five apiece, and then the Mountain West and WCC also have two apiece. That’s not to mention the remaining leagues represented with auto-bids won in their tournaments come four months from now.

Here is the updated projection of Bracketology from Lunardi, looking ahead to Selection Sunday and the 2026 NCAA Tournament, which could be the final one with a Field of 68, with the season beginning on Monday next week:

NCAA Tournament Bubble

Last Four Byes: Cincinnati, Iowa, Virginia, Saint Mary’s
Last Four In: Marquette, Washington, Boise State, Villanova
First Four Out: Oklahoma, Indiana, Clemson, Texas A&M
Next Four Out: SMU, Maryland, Utah State, Georgia

South Region (Houston)

No. 1 Houston (AQ – Big 12) vs. No. 16 Montana (AQ – Big Sky)
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 USC
No. 5 Gonzaga (AQ – WCC) vs. No. 12 Akron (AQ – MAC)
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Utah Valley (AQ – WAC)

No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU (AQ – A-10)
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 James Madison (AQ – Sun Belt)
No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 Mississippi State
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 15 Youngstown State (AQ – Horizon)

Houston is the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket here for Lunardi, which would give them the opportunity to host the regional site for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. That’s with the Cougars, led by Kelvin Sampson and ranked at No. 2 in the country in the Preseason AP Poll, coming off of a runner-up finish in the national title game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and returning three key starters in Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp, and JoJo Tugler.

The South Region here also accounts for several of the seeds from the Southeastern Conference with four here, all of which made the field a year ago but saw significant changes to their rosters, in Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and Mississippi State. It also features some of the bigger brands in the sport in Michigan, North Carolina, and Gonzaga.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

No. 1 Purdue (AQ – Big Ten) vs. No. 16 Norfolk State (AQ – MEAC)/Long Island University (AQ – NEC)
No. 8 Baylor vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa (AQ – MVC)
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 UC Irvine (AQ – Big West)

No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 11 Marquette/Washington
No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington (AQ – CAA)
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Saint Mary’s
No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 15 Siena (AQ – MAAC)

Purdue, ranked at No. 1 in the Preseason Top-25, is the second of the No. 1 seeds with quite the roster behind their corps of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn and with it coached by Matt Painter, which is why Lunardi focused on them in his preview of the bracket. The Midwest also includes several brand name programs and coaches with Rick Pitino at St. John’s, Pat Kelsey at Louisville, Tommy Lloyd at Arizona, John Calipari at Arkansas, Bill Self at Kansas, and Scott Drew at Baylor.

“Champions need to be good and timely,” Lunardi wrote. “Since the pandemic, one could reasonably place Purdue as the nation’s second-best program, after UConn. That includes the Boilermakers falling well short of UConn in the 2024 title game as well as their head-scratching NCAA tournament exits at the hands of North Texas, Saint Peter’s and Fairleigh Dickinson — all of which is to note the 2025-26 version of Purdue might not be Matt Painter’s best team of this era, but it could be the timeliest. And sometimes, that’s all it takes.”

East Region (Washington D.C.)

No. 1 Florida (AQ – SEC) vs. No. 16 Vermont (AQ – Am. East)
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Yale (AQ – Ivy)
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 McNeese State (AQ – Southland)

No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 Memphis (AQ – American)
No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 14 Furman (AQ – SoCon)
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Virginia
No. 2 Connecticut (AQ – Big East) vs. No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast (AQ – ASUN)

Florida, the defending national champions after winning the 2025 NCAA Tournament, are then the third of the No. 1 seeds in this early look for 2026. The Gators do have to completely replace a title-winning backcourt, but Todd Golden should have another favorite out of the SEC with the entirety of his frontcourt back in Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, and Micah Handlogten.

The East Region also has plenty of intrigue beyond the champs, including the prior champions to them in UConn as their No. 2 seed. UCLA, Texas Tech, and Michigan State along with Auburn, no longer led by the same Coach Pearl, and NC State, now led by Will Wade, then fill out this portion of the bracket in seeding from No. 3 through No. 8.

West Region (San José)

No. 1 Duke (AQ – ACC) vs. No. 16 Navy (AQ – Patriot)/Southern (AQ – SWAC)
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Cincinnati
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Liberty (AQ – CUSA)
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 High Point (AQ – Big South)

No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Boise State/Villanova
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 St. Thomas (AQ – Pioneer)
No. 7 San Diego State (AQ – Mountain West) vs. No. 10 Iowa
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Little Rock (AQ – OVC)

Duke, coming off the first No. 1 seed for them since 2019 and their first appearance in the Final Four since the retirement of Mike Krzyzewski, is then the last of the No. 1 seeds here projected in this early bracket for ’26. That’s as Jon Scheyer pairs returners in Caleb Foster, Isaiah Evans, and Patick Ngongba with another No. 1 recruiting class, including their top prospect who has looked to be another phenom in the preseason in Cameron Boozer.

Finally, the West Region projects to have plenty of interest beyond the Blue Devils. That’s obvious with Kentucky, BYU, and Illinois behind them in the top-four, as well as consistent programs like Iowa State and Oregon and brands with new coaches in there as well in Texas, Iowa, and Villanova.