Hits, Misses, and Lessons: On3’s 2025 NFL Draft Retrospective

The NFL Draft allows On3 to retrospectively examine what we thought of future top draft picks as high school prospects. In doing so, we can learn from successes and mistakes to improve our scouting and ranking process in the future.

2025 draft data reveals On3’s strength in predicting future NFL picks

The first three rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft saw several prominent hits and misses. Here are a few that stick out.

Hit: EDGE Abdul Carter – Penn State

Drafted: No. 3 by the New York Giants
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 129 in 2022
Next Highest Ranking: No. 232 (Rivals)
Industry Comparison

Abdul Carter made a huge rankings jump into the On300 after a few weeks of film from his senior season. Ranked and recruited as a linebacker, he had outstanding size and speed. Carter measured at 6-foot-3.5, 235 pounds, and played up to the 4.5 speed he posted at college camps. He was a sideline-to-sideline defender with major striking power that would decleat ball-carriers. Carter worked as a linebacker during his first two years at Penn State, before moving to EDGE, where he was one of the more dominant players in college football.

Miss: OT Will Campbell – LSU

Drafted: No. 4 by the New England Patriots
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 126 in 2022
On3 Industry Ranking: No. 40
Industry Comparison

Will Campbell was a dominant run blocker on Friday nights. At 6-foot-6, 285 pounds, Campbell had great film and looked like a solid functional mover. As was the case during the pre-draft process, there were some questions about his length. We knew he had a neutral to minus wing-span, and his arms were at or below 33 inches. Campbell was solid when we saw him in person at camps and during all-star practice, but there were some occasions where we felt like his lack of length left him exposed against top pass rushers. Our critiques were too harsh, as he was able to mitigate those questions with his stellar career at LSU. Campbell’s athleticism, work ethic in the weight room, and attitude helped him optimize his physical talent.

Miss: DL Mason Graham – Michigan

Drafted: No. 5 by the Cleveland Browns
On3 Ranking: 3-star in 2022
On3 Industry Ranking: 4-star, No. 298
Industry Comparison

Originally a Boise State commit, Mason Graham was a senior riser, earning several Power 4 offers and a fourth star in the On3 Industry Ranking during his final season at Anaheim (Calif.) Servite. While he wasn’t physically imposing, Graham was a dominant player and drew on his wrestling background to play with outstanding leverage. In hindsight, we should’ve taken a much harder look at Graham as a senior.

Hit: RB Ashton Jeanty – Boise State

Drafted: Top 10
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 292 in 2022
Next Highest Ranking: Unranked 4-star (247Sports)
Industry Comparison

We often hear about how recruiting sites miss on a prospect, before crediting college coaches doing the exact same (see Cam Ward). Ashton Jeanty is an example of recruiting sites being ahead of college staffs. Jeanty first popped on my radar early on in his senior season. I watched his team play one of the top programs in Texas and came away thinking he was the best player on the field. He had a dominant senior season with over 2,600 yards from scrimmage and 41 touchdowns – remarkable for his first year as a full-time running back. In addition to elite contact balance, Jeanty was one of the top pass-catching backs in the cycle (800 yards, 10 TD receiving). On3 was the first outlet to tab Jeanty as a four-star, with him moving into the On300 during his senior season. Oddly, Jeanty only listed two Power 4 offers (Cal, Kansas). He stayed loyal to Boise State throughout his recruitment and his college career.

Miss: WR Tetairoa McMillan – Arizona

Drafted: No. 8 by the Carolina Panthers
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 68 in 2022
On3 Industry Ranking: No. 41
Industry Comparison

Tetairoa McMillan was a top 75 prospect for On3 for the entirety of the cycle. He was among the more productive wide receivers in the cycle, accounting for 1,302 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns while playing top competition. He also picked off eight passes as a safety. His ball skills were arguably the best in the cycle after Travis Hunter. We had some questions about his top-end speed. The speed turned out not to be a big concern, even though McMillan never ran a 40 during high school and ran 4.53 during the pre-draft process. He outperformed every wide receiver ranked ahead of him as a college player and ended up being drafted the highest.

Hit: OT Kelvin Banks – Texas

Drafted: No. 9 by the New Orleans Saints
On3 Ranking: 5-star, No. 6 in 2022
On3 Industry Ranking: No. 22
Industry Comparison

We really liked our ranking of Kelvin Banks, feeling like he had a readymade combination of size and functional movement skills. Banks’ film took a nice jump as a senior. He was a big, smooth athlete who improved as a physical finisher. There was some instant gratification on his ranking, as Banks quickly nailed down Texas’ starting left tackle job and turned out to be a foundational piece of Steve Sarkisian’s rebuild in Austin.

Hit: TE Colston Loveland – Michigan

Projected: No. 10 by the Chicago Bears
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 247 in 2022
Next Highest Ranking: Unranked 4-star (247Sports)
Industry Comparison

Colston Loveland played in a remote area of Idaho, and we didn’t have a ton of verified measurements. Despite that, there were a ton of positive indicators for a tight end prospect. Despite playing in a remote area of Idaho, Colston Loveland had a bunch of the positive indicators we look for in blue-chip tight end prospects. Loveland was a dominant player on Friday nights, accounting for over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns on offense in addition to playing defensive end and linebacker. He was an all-state basketball player and also participated in track and field. Loveland was also younger for the cycle. As the fall wore on, he was a prospect we liked more and more as we continued to learn about his background.

Hit: DL Kenneth Grant – Michigan

Projected: No. 13 by the Miami Dolphins
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 102 in 2022
Next Highest Ranking: Unranked 4-star (247Sports)
Industry Comparison

Kenneth Grant was another senior riser – a serious theme among first-rounders and high draft picks. He made a big move into the On300 during the fall of that year and continued to move higher the more we watched his senior film. There was a group of heavier defensive linemen inside the On300, and we thought Grant showed the most twitch of the group, perhaps by a wide margin. Grant was a two-way player for his high school team. It was apparent he was going to need to hone in on the technical side of his game and probably improve his conditioning, but there were some serious ‘wow’ moments on his film, including an incredible eight blocked kicks. He also boasted a great 57-3 foot best in the shot put.

Miss: WR Emeka Egbuka – Ohio State

Projected: No. 19 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 42 in 2021
On3 Industry Ranking: 5-star, No. 15
Industry Comparison

Emeka Egbuka should have been a five-star in the On300. The overall ranking of No. 42 wasn’t too far off, and he may have been drafted around that spot had he entered last year’s draft. With that said, we should have had Egbuka ranked ahead of a prospect like Agiye Hall, who was far less productive and much more volatile as a high school player. Looking back, had we gone with Egbuka’s production and steadiness, our five-star pass-catcher group in the 2021 On300 of Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Brock Bowers would’ve been perfect.

Hit: EDGE James Pearce – Tennessee

Projected: No. 26 by the Atlanta Falcons
On3 Ranking: 5-star, No. 11 in 2022
Next Highest Ranking: No. 160 (Rivals)
Industry Comparison

James Pearce was the prospect in the 2022 cycle whom I watched the most and did the most work on. Pearce sat within the On300 for some time, but after watching a few of his games as a senior, I had a strong hunch that he was seriously underrated and underrecruited. His film was hard to find – he didn’t have any updated highlights on Hudl, which required watching full game streams. The more and more I watched Pearce, the more impressed I became with his elite get-off, play speed, and finishing ability. He had the most dominant single-game performance I watched that fall, taking over the state semifinal to spark a come-from-behind win. He finished his senior season with 14.5 sacks, 28.5 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, nine pass-breakups, two safeties, and two interceptions. We made Pearce a five-star in our final rankings, and he ended up being one of the biggest five-star outliers taken in the first round, along with Peter Skoronski.

Miss: OT Josh Conerly – Oregon

Projected: No. 29 by the Washington Commanders
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 147 in 2022
On3 Industry Ranking: 4-star, No. 38
Industry Comparison

Josh Conlery Jr. was a top 50 prospect for much of the cycle for On3. We liked his physical tools – the length and movement skills. The film was solid, and we thought Conerly had a high upside as a developmental tackle prospect. We came away from the week at the All-American Bowl feeling like he struggled from a play strength perspective. We saw prospects uproot and walk them into the backfield with bull rushes. That critique was ultimately too harsh. Conerly still will need to improve his functional strength as he heads into the NFL, but his upside and traits led him to be a very good player at Oregon and a first-round pick.

Hit: S Nick Emmanwori – South Carolina

Projected: No. 35 by the Seattle Seahawks
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 121 in 2022
Next Highest Ranking: Unranked 4-star (Rivals)
Industry Comparison

Nick Emmanwori moved into the On300 in the middle of his senior season. We knew he was a hyper athletic, versatile defender who was a camp evaluation by the South Carolina staff. Emmanwori exploded as a senior while playing linebacker. He tallied 166 solo tackles in just 10 games as a senior and showed elite athleticism, running sideline-to-sideline and sticking with receivers on downfield routes. Emmanwori played in a state all-star game after his senior season. I made a point to attend one of the practices to see him in person. As I walked up to the field, I saw Emmanwori make an impressive interception. He was one of the lone Power 4 prospects at the all-star game, but backed up what we saw on senior film.

Hit: EDGE J.T. Tuimoloau – Ohio State

Projected: No. 45 by the Indianapolis Colts
On3 Ranking: 5-star, No. 26 In 2021
Next Lowest Ranking: No. 7 (Rivals)
Industry Comparison

J.T. Tuimoloau is the lone hit who On3 did not have the highest ranking for. Tuimoloau was considered the No. 1 prospect in the industry rankings (before Quinn Ewers‘ late reclassification). The film simply didn’t back up that ranking, in my opinion. Tuimoloau was a big plus athlete. He was a very good basketball player and a two-way player as a defensive end and tight end. While I felt he was a five-star level prospect, the film was more in line with that of a back-end five-star than the No. 1 prospect in the cycle. The film on Tuimoloau was hard to track down for much of the cycle, and we never got to see him in person due to COVID-19 cancelling all-star events. Much of the industry was likely flying blind on Tuimoloau’s ranking, holding steady with a sophomore evaluation. Despite the interesting reaction at the time, we felt good about our ranking of Tuimolau relative to an NFL Draft projection.

Miss: CB Benjamin Morrison – Notre Dame

Drafted: No. 53 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
On3 Ranking: 3-star in 2022
On3 Industry Ranking: 4-star, No. 342
Industry Comparison

We viewed Benjamin Morrison as a borderline four-star prospect for much of the cycle. He had good size, smooth movement skills, and could line up at corner or safety. We wanted to see a better verified speed for a top corner prospect – Morrison had four 100-meter times to his name, with the best being an 11.46 as an underclassman. While there wasn’t a ton of athletic indicators or two-way production, Morrison’s cover skills and polish put him on the field early during his career in South Bend.

Hit: EDGE Mike Green – Marshall

Drafted: No. 59 by the Baltimore Ravens
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 109 in 2021
Next Highest Ranking: 3-star (all)
Industry Comparison

Before he led the NCAA in sacks at Marshall, Mike Green was a Virginia signee and inside the 2021 On300. Green had a strong junior season with 17 tackles for loss. His senior season was postponed until the spring due to COVID-19. Green was dominant as a senior and took over the state title game. He made plays in all three phases – forcing an interception as a pass rusher, running for a touchdown on a botched punt attempt, and catching the game-winning touchdown.

Hit: S Andrew Mukuba – Clemson

Drafted: No. 64 by the Philadelphia Eagles
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 43 in 2021
Next Highest Ranking: No. 154 (ESPN)
Industry Comparison

Andrew Mukuba was a personal favorite in the 2021 cycle. A violent safety with range and ball skills, Mukuba flashed a bunch of translatable skills as a senior. He emerged as a prospect during his junior season after playing JV as a sophomore. The ball production and two-way ability stood out, as Mukuba accounted for 15 receiving touchdowns and six interceptions in his two varsity seasons. It was also apparent he was a heady, smart player. We saw those qualities on the field early in his career at Clemson and later at Texas.

Miss: EDGE Landon Jackson – Arkansas

Drafted: No. 72 by the Buffalo Bills
On3 Ranking: Unranked 4-star in 2021
On3 Industry Ranking: 4-star, No. 158
Industry Comparison

Landon Jackson was viewed as a jumbo defensive end with a huge frame and plus length. His flashes were intriguing, to say the least. The play speed and physical traits were readily apparent. Jackson had two season-ending injuries in high school, causing him to miss time and raising questions about his ability to stay healthy. Jackson was able to overcome those concerns. He originally signed with LSU and saw his college career take off at Arkansas.

Hit: WR Jaylin Noel – Iowa State

Drafted: No. 79 by the Houston Texans
On3 Ranking: 4-star, No. 156
Next Highest Ranking: 3-star (all)
Industry Comparison

Jaylin Noel was a film evaluation for us. While solid, his overall profile didn’t necessarily scream four-star prospect, especially early in the process. With that said, the more I watched Noel as a senior, the more I saw a future impact college receiver and likely NFL Draft pick. Noel was quick off the line and had great tempo within his routes. He played bigger than his size and was strong at the catch point. I also liked his ability after the catch. Noel’s athleticism (11.07 second 100 meter and 6-5 high jump) was also a positive.