Pac-12 Best Bets for the 2021 season

The Pac-12 regular season kicks off this week, with UCLA’s debut against Hawaii on Saturday, Aug. 28. But before the season begins, win totals, conference title and national championship odds have been released courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, and ESPN released its best bets for the Pac-12 season.

ESPN’s panel consists of Bill Connelly, David Hale, Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum. Do you agree with their betting picks for the Pac-12?

Bill Connelly: Washington Huskies to win Pac-12 (+350)

As Connelly notes, we didn’t see all that much of the Huskies in the shortened 2020 season. The Pac-12 regular season was shortened to just seven games in light of COVID-19, but after cancellations against California, Washington State and Oregon, the Huskies played four total games and finished 3-1. Their 3-1 record was still enough to punch a ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game, but due to an insufficient number of available players, the next-in-line Pac-12 North team — Oregon — took the Huskies’ spot.

Connelly likes what the Huskies rolled out in 2020, albeit in a small sample size. He notes their depth on the defensive side of the ball, and makes specific mention of Zion Tupuola-Fetui, the Huskies’ best pass rusher, who will likely play this fall despite an achilles injury in April. The Huskies are the second favorite to win the Pac-12, trailing only Oregon, who they host in the regular season — perhaps leading to some value on the Huskies at +350.

David Hale: USC Trojans under 8.5 wins (-125)

After finishing with a 5-0 regular season record in 2020, the USC Trojans looked to be in position to claim the Pac-12, however, they ultimately lost to Oregon, Washington’s replacement team. Hale labels their 2020 season as a lucky one, highlighting a 60-point swing in points off turnover margin, the fifth highest in the FBS despite the shortened schedule.

The Trojans were 3-1 in games where they trailed during the fourth quarter, and Hale sees a big regression to the mean for the Trojans — all that in mind, he says, betting the under on their win total is a safe bet.

David Hale: UCLA Bruins over 7 wins (-110); +4 over LSU (-110)

Hale says he’s a big fan of the Bruins this coming year because of the experience on their roster. Their Pac-12 record wasn’t great last year, as they finished 3-4, but he noted substantial improvements from 2019. Furthermore, the Bruins were 1-4 in a game decided by a touchdown or less, and their starting quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, suffered an injury midway through the year. All that in mind, he thinks the Bruins are undervalued in the betting market — both for season-long futures and in their second matchup of the year against LSU.

Joe Fortenbaugh: Utah Utes to win Pac-12 (+700), over 8.5 wins (-145)

The Utah Utes have 19 returning players this season, but as Fortenbaugh notes, the main story is the addition of transfer quarterback Charlie Brewer from Baylor. Brewer has a career 63.5 completion percentage, and he’ll lead the Utes’ offense through what should be one of the easier schedules in the Pac-12, with nonconference games against Weber State, BYU and San Diego State. All of that leads to a recipe for the over, according to Fortenbaugh.

Doug Kezirian: Colorado Buffaloes under 4.5 wins (-120)

The Colorado Buffaloes turned heads last year, finishing with a 4-2 record despite expectations that they’d finish towards the bottom of the Pac-12. Kezirian doesn’t think the Buffaloes will repeat that performance, however, as he says the defense will be among the worst in the conference. If the Buffaloes are lucky, they can pull off a big upset or two on their home field in part thanks to the altitude. Kezirian thinks its far more likely that they slip, especially when considering a tough home slate that includes Minnesota, Arizona, Oregon State and Washington.