Report: Texas State 'heavy favorite' to join Pac-12, could start realignment ripple

In the ever-evolving world of college athletics, much of the focus in recent weeks has been on the House settlement and the future of NIL and the transfer portal. But what of conference realignment?

ESPN’s Pete Thamel broke in on Sunday night with a new report that indicates another wave of conference realignment could be imminent. And it begins with a potential addition for the Pac-12.

According to Thamel’s reporting, Texas State is the “heavy favorite” to be issued a formal Pac-12 invitation. He notes that the buyout for Texas State to leave the Sun Belt for the 2026-27 season jumps from $5 million to $10 million on July 1, providing a potential timeline to watch in the coming days.

One of the biggest factors driving another potential addition in the Pac-12 is the need to get to eight teams to qualify as an FBS conference. The league is currently only at seven football members.

The Pac-12 is also still awaiting on the finalization of its new television deal, which would provide league members with much more clarity on the future. Finances are a big reported piece of the realignment puzzle, as some schools have opted to remain with their current conference rather than leave and incur exit fees.

ESPN notes that the Pac-12 offered about $2.5 million to Memphis to aid in a potential buyout, but Memphis would have been on the hook for about $22.5 million more. That proved to be unworkable.

The reporting from Thamel also makes another note on television revenue in light of further anticipated conference realignment. He writes:

“The finances from a new TV deal are expected to be below what the league’s consultants pitched schools initially. In the wake of the initial flurry of schools going to the league, ESPN reported schools were shown projected revenue from a TV deal north of $10 million per school, but conditions have changed.”

So will Texas State get the bid to the Pac-12 and opt to leave, kicking off the next realignment wave? That remains to be seen, but ESPN’s reporting indicates it’s a definite possibility.

What might happen if Texas State does, in fact, leave for the Pac-12? Thamel and ESPN report that Louisiana Tech would be the favorite to replace Texas State in the Sun Belt. Meanwhile, Tarleton State would be the favorite to join Conference USA should a spot open up.