On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine: Where the uncommitted five-stars are trending

Just over six weeks remain until the beginning of the December Early Signing Period, 10 uncommitted five-stars remain on the board in the 2023 class.

With the help of the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine, we’re breaking down where things stand with each one.

The RPM was released to the public in December. The On3 engineering group teamed up with Spiny.ai to create the industry’s first algorithm and machine learning-based product to predict where athletes will attend college. 

It factors in machine learning, expert predictions, social sentiment, visits, and historical trends. However, expert predictions are still a big piece of the RPM equation.

Uncommitted five-stars in the On3 Consensus rankings

Five-star EDGE Keon Keeley
School: Tampa (Fla.) Berkeley Prep
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 8
On3 NIL Valuation: $258K
On3 RPM: Alabama 49.4%, Ohio State 41.2%, Florida 7.8%
The Skinny: After decommitting from Notre Dame — the program he was pledged to for more than a year — earlier this month, Keeley has unofficially been focused on three schools: Alabama, Ohio State and Florida. But after two visits to Ohio State in September, including an official, the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide have separated themselves, according to On3’s Chad Simmons. Keeley was in Tuscaloosa last month, and it a decision is expected close to the Early Signing Period.

Five-star CB Desmond Ricks
School: Chesapeake (Va.) IMG Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 12
On3 NIL Valuation: $239K
On3 RPM: LSU 33.0%, Alabama 26.5%, Miami 14.5%, Florida 10.4%
The Skinny: While one five-star cornerback came off the board in October — Cormani McClain — another joined the 2023 class as Ricks announced his decision to reclassify up a year. The nation’s No. 2 cornerback has the chance to sign in either December or February, and he has already locked in three official visits for the end of November and into December. LSU and Alabama have made a strong impression thus far, but you can never count out the in-state Gators and Hurricanes.

Five-Star EDGE Nyckoles Harbor
School: Washington (D.C.) Archbishop Carroll
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 13
On3 NIL Valuation: $306K
On3 RPM: Michigan 35.9%, LSU 30.5%, South Carolina 23.8%, Maryland 4.0%
The Skinny: Things are finally beginning to take shape in the recruitment of Harbor, a two-sport high school stars who doubles as one of the country’s elite 100- and 200-meter sprinters. He took official visits to South Carolina and Michigan last month, with both making strong impressions. LSU and Maryland are scheduled to host him in December, with the hometown Terrapins set to get the last shot at him.

Five-Star DL James Smith 
School: Montgomery (Ala.) Carver
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 15
On3 NIL Valuation: $213K
On3 RPM: Alabama 40.5%, Georgia 28.5%, Auburn 23.8%
The Skinny: Smith took official visits in June to Auburn and Georgia, and is high school teammates with fellow five-star defensive lineman Qua Russaw, who he both plan to play together at the next level. They’ve been at Alabama, Auburn and Florida this fall. Russaw recently received an expert pick to Alabama, and the Crimson Tide are expected to be tough to beat here.

Five-Star OT Samson Okunlola
School: Brockton (Mass.) Thayer Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 16
On3 NIL Valuation: $221K
On3 RPM: Miami 95.3%, Michigan State 1.1%
The Skinny: Landing Okunlola, the nation’s No. 3 offensive tackle, would be a massive win for Mario Cristobal on the recruiting trial. Miami already has a top-10 class, and it could rise even higher by pairing Okunlola with fellow bookend five-star offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa. Not much has changed in recent months, as Okunlola’s high school mostly plays on Saturdays, preventing him from taking visits.

Five-Star EDGE Qua Russaw
School: Montgomery (Ala.) Carver
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 22
On3 NIL Valuation: $226K
On3 RPM:  Alabama 74.0%, Auburn 14.6%, Florida 4.5%, Georgia 3.0%,
Summary: Russaw is a high school teammate of fellow five-star defensive lineman James Smith, and both re-affirmed their plan to play together at the next level. On3’s Chad Simmons recently placed an expert pick in favor of the Crimson Tide, and they’re expected to be favorite all the way until he makes a decision — likely in December.

Five-star EDGE Samuel M’Pemba
School: St. Louis (Mo.) IMG Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 23
On3 NIL Valuation: $209K
On3 RPM: Georgia 93.7%, Missouri 1.5%
Summary: The RPM heavily favors the Bulldogs for M’Pemba, who has been very coy about where his recruitment stands. A recent slew of expert picks have gone in favor of UGA, and a commitment could be coming after his official visit to Athens this weekend.

Five-Star TE Duce Robinson
School: Phoenix (Ariz.) Pinnacle
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 25
On3 NIL Valuation: $195K
On3 RPM: USC 61.3%, Georgia 21.5%, Texas 9.4%, Alabama 2.5%,
Summary: USC was considered the heavy favorite for Robinson for months, but others have crept into his recruitment. Georgia made a strong impression on him on his official visit last weekend, and according to Simmons’ latest intel, it’s a neck-and-neck race between the Bulldogs and Trojans. Alabama hosted him for an official visit on Oct. 8, and trips to Texas and Oregon are also expected to happen before December.

Five-Star DL Matayo Uiagalelei
School: Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 26
On3 NIL Valuation: $211K
On3 RPM: Ohio State 48.2%, USC 31.1%, Oregon 16.3%, Alabama 2.3%
Summary: Simmons believes Ohio State is sitting as the front-runner for the defensive lineman’s commitment, but USC’s hot start to this season and the performance of their defense have made the Trojans’ more of a threat than originally thought.

Five-star EDGE Damon Wilson
School: Venice (Fla.)
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 31
On3 NIL Valuation: $193K
On3 RPM: Ohio State 85.6%, Georgia 8.2%, Miami 3.5%, Alabama 1.7%
Summary: According to the latest intel from Simmons, it’s down to a two-team race for Wilson between Ohio State and Georgia. The Bulldogs hosted him earlier this month for an official visit, but the Buckeyes and their development of elite pass-rushers will make them tough to beat.